So Many Things I Could Have Done - Clouds Got In My Way

The investment cycle is often described as a sine wave, climbing from it's base of optimism to a point of euphoria, then sinking back down through anxiety, fear, panic, and capitulation into a trough of despondency, before rising again to it's baseline of optimism.












That model has always proved a good guide to investors, giving them a map and steady course through the ups and downs and ins and outs of bull and bear markets. The problem this time, though, has been figuring out just where on the sine wave we are.

Take last Monday, for example. After last Friday's fall a student of the sine wave would have concluded that we must be at the point of "capitulation", and yet on Monday the market rose in wave of enthusiasm that looked more "euphoria" than "despondency". In fact, it's hard to remember a time when a market was so bullish in the face of a prolonged and pernicious recession. Recessions aren't usually good for stock prices, and yet it seemed like every expert on Wall Street was on the TV touting stocks as "historically cheap" and imploring investors to "buy, buy, buy".

The question I asked as I looked at the investment cycle was "what is the contrary position when everyone is a contrarian?". I'm certainly no market psychologist, but it seems that even with all the recent carnage on Wall Street, we seem closer to the "euphoria" end of the curve than the "despondency" end. That is, there is an awful lot of bullishness out there, and it's hardly contrarian to be a bull in this environment. The truly contrary position, I think, may be to stay sane in the midst of all this insanity.

That's my strategy anyways, and it will probably be my ruination, but it's at least as good as any other strategies I've heard lately. Either way, it's clear that we won't be given any sense of direction from the President or any of the two candidates. It seems that his financial crisis has become so big that no one can really devise an effective strategy to deal with it.

It sort of reminds me of the time when I used to work as a janitor (er, maintenance engineer). That was my second job out of high school, and not one of the best occupations I ever entered into. I particularly remember that one of the most distasteful aspects of being a janitor was having to clean out the toilets at the buildings where I was assigned to work. Some of you may have worked as janitors yourselves at some point in your lives, and if so then you'll probably remember some of the incredible messes left behind by people who, in other respects, could pass as clean, well-mannered, and otherwise normal human beings.

Being the janitor, though, my job was to clean up after these people, and I found the best way to deal with their disgusting bathroom messes was just to soldier on and try not to look at it. I think that's what we're seeing in the campaigns right now. We've got a couple of canidates facing a huge financial mess and doing their best to soldier on and try not to look at it. What else can they do? Maybe, if they're lucky (and if all those bulls on Wall Street are correct), this whole thing will blow over and come next Janauary they'll breeze into office with a sound economy and a strong wind at their back.

Personally, I wouldn't count on it, and let me just add that it really used to piss me off when, after cleaning up some really disgusting mess in the bathroom, someone would complain to my boss that I forgot to empty their garbage can or clean a fingerprint off of a window. Hey - screw you! Tell you what, if you want me to empty your garbage then here - take this mop and go clean out that bathroom for me. Ok? Ungrateful little...

(I didn't stay a janitor for very long, but in every office I ever worked in I've always tried to clean up after myself and not act like a slob. Despite what your coworkers might think, the janitor knows how disgusting you really are. Just something to think about.)

Anyway, I don't think we're going to get any answers from Wall Street or any leadership from Washington, so we best make do as best we can. Politicians always say that it's a sin to burden our children with our debts, and then they go off and spend another trillion or so, and I have a feeling that one way or another this is going to get really expensive. Some ideas will work, some won't, and then this too will pass. Fortunately, if we manage to survive to the other side and we still have some money left there will be plenty of good places to invest. Until then, all we can do is try to stay sane.

The Truth About Stocks and Bonds

After all, what is 9000? It's just a number. It's just billions and trillions of dollars. It's just the savings and investments of millions of Americans and others around the world. Just because we've fallen below 9000 that doesn't mean the sun won't shine as bright nor that the flowers won't smell as sweet. There'll still be a tomorrow, and someday this all will pass.

There. Now that I've reassured the markets perhaps we can all stop worrying.

Let's look rationally at this situation, shall we? As I see it, the problem with the markets is that for the first time in a long time, many Americans are coming face to face with this thing called risk. Many of us thought we knew what risk was, but we didn't really know. You see, real risk is not a concept or something you can analyze or intellectualize - real risk is an emotion. When you're walking through the jungle and you find a tiger in your path, you don't get out your IPhone and look up "tiger" in Wikipedia, researching and analyzing it's potential danger. When you see a tiger you feel the risk, without thinking, and you react. You go "waaahhhh!!!" and you run for your life.

That's what's happening in the markets right now. There's a tiger out there lurking, and we have all these Wall Street people frantically trying to analyze and rationalize what's going on, all the while ignoring the gnawing sense of risk growling in the pits of investor's stomachs. We see the technicians looking at their charts and saying "this isn't supposed to happen" while the tiger chews another leg off. We see the fundamentalists proclaiming "this is an excellent opportunity for us to be eating the tiger instead of the tiger eating us" while a claw rips open their bellies and tears at their insides. It's a sad and horrible thing to watch.

So, what does history teach us about situations such as these? If we let history be our guide then there are two ways to look at this. First of all, pretend this is a baseball game and not a stock market. The bulls would look at Jones, who is 0 for his last 30 at bats, and say that history would teach us that Jones is "overdue to get a hit.", while the bears would look at Jones and say history would teach us that "there must be something wrong with Jones. He should be on the injured reserve." In other words, history teaches us nothing. Forget history - you'll never make any money that way.

Instead of looking to the past, ask yourself this question instead: "Do I know what the hell is going on with these markets?" If the answer is yes, then would you please drop me a note because I'm dying to know. If the answer is no, then may I ask you why are you investing when you don't know what the hell is going on? Did you all of a sudden become a Warren Buffett or a Nostradamus or something? To my mind there are only two kinds of people who should be in the market at this particular time - lucky traders and dumb investors. Warren Buffett is neither, but then he's investing at a whole different level.

My point, though, is that there are worse things you can do with your money right now than just sit and wait for the dust to settle. I don't mean wait till hell freezes over, but just wait until we all get some idea what's going on. Every day it seems like some new government program or initiative is announced, and every day it seems like some new sector of the economy is in trouble. Wait a while, put your money in the bank, and see if any of what's going on makes any sense. I know the stock brokerages hate that, they tell you to buy while it's cheap (meanwhile the market drops another 3%), but in this present environment patience is truly a virtue.

As to why the markets are in a freefall, my theory is that the last debate is to blame. I don't know if anyone watched that (or managed to stay awake past the first 10 minutes), but could we have 2 candidates more clueless about what's going on in the country today. For weeks now the headlines have all been about the doom and gloom on Wall Street, and these guys sit around and argue about which of them is really going to cut taxes. Personally, I don't think either one of them showed any capacity for seizing the day and leading us out of our financial malaise, but who knows.

Anyway, after that sorry debate I don't think it's any surprise that the markets showed their vote of no-confidence by sinking down even further. That loud thud we've been hearing all week is just Wall Street's way of saying "if we've got to depend on any of these guys getting us out of this mess, then we're in trouble." If we are at a turning point with no clear direction in sight, then you could do a whole lot worse than just sit on the sidelines for a while and wait this thing out.

That's my best investing advice other than (1) if you have a job, make sure you (2) keep your job. Go into work today and tell the boss "say, have I ever told you how smart and good-looking you are?" Believe me, a steady job and cash in the bank is the best investment you can have when times get tough.

If you don't have a job, then, well, I don't know. Maybe you can sell jewelry down by the train station or open a hot dog stand or something. If nothing else you can always become involved in radical fringe politics. That's what a lot of people do when the economy sours. Become an anarchist, or a socialist, or an antidisestablishmentarianist or something. Walk down the sidewalk passing out anti-authoritarian pamphlets and petitioning the disenfranchised to join your movement. Become the next Lee Harvey Oswald and make your mother proud.

Or, maybe, just wait this thing out and do the best you can.

Getting There From Here

It's getting harder and harder to get excited about new technology these days. A new IPod? Boring. Oh sure, the new one is tall and thin while the old one was short and fat, but frankly, who cares? A new IPhone? Kind of exciting, but the Iphone's been out a while now, and everybody's doing the touch screen thing these days.

However, every now and then a new device can still come along and get you surprised and excited. Every now and then, something comes along and changes everything, and you wonder almost immediately "how did I ever get along with out this?" That's my blog tonight, because I got this new device last week and I just can't stop playing with it. It truly is one of those technological wonders that changes everything.

What happened is I bought new radio. Sure, radio's been around for about 100 years and the technology can hardly be called "new", and yet this new radio of mine is something entirely different. It's called the Squeezebox Boom and it's made by a company called Logitech (maybe you have one of their mice?). What's different about this radio is that it's entirely different. You see, it doesn't get it's signals from over-the-air broadcast stations or satellites - it gets them from the internet.

That's right - No AM or FM. It has a built-in wifi antenna, and it connects to the computer network you already have in your home or office (it also has an ethernet port for regular wired connections). Just plug it in, configure it, and now instead of having a few dozen radio stations to listen to, you have hundreds, if not thousands, to choose from.

I brought mine home and had it up and running in about 20 minutes. There were a few glitches in the setup, but nothing that anyone with basic computer skills couldn't handle. The first glitch was that when I powered on the radio all the menus were in german. I don't know why that was, but eventually I found the menu selection to change the default language to english. My next problem was that for some reason the radio couldn't find my network. It found a few of my neighbors wireless networks, but it didn't list mine among them. Fortunately, the setup offered the option to manually input my network and, once done, I had no problem connecting.

After connecting to the network, the next step was to create an account at a place called the SqueezeNetwork. You use the SqueezeNetwork to configure your radio, and account setup is free. When you setup your SqeezeNetwork account, you enter in your radio's PIN number and that ties your online account to your particular radio. Once everything is setup, your all ready to go. From then on, the website is the place you'll go to configure the services that you use on your radio (usernames and passwords), and it's these services that will deliver the content to your radio.

The free services offered on SqueezeNetwork are LastFM, Live365, Pandora, Radiotime, and Slacker. The subscription services offered are MP3tunes, RadioIO, Rhapsody and Sirius. I won't go into detail for each option, but they all deliver music in one way or another to your radio. In addition to the services, the Sqeezebox Boom can also play Shoutcast streams, podcasts, and, with the appropriate software installed on your home computer, can even stream music stored on your hard drive directly to the radio. What the radio can't do is play over-the-air stations, but using Radiotime you can probably listen to most of your favorite local stations over the internet (more on that later).

So how does it all work? Let me use Pandora as an example. By logging on to the SqueezeNetwork website, I was able to set up a free Pandora account. Once I had it set up, Pandora instantly became available on my radio. The next step was to go to the Pandora website and set up a custom radio station. I'm kind of an opera fan, so when Pandora asked me for the name of an artist I'd like to use as a basis for my radio station I entered Renee Fleming. Pandora then went through it's database and created a station that would play both Renee Fleming tracks and other artists that it considered similar to Renee Fleming. As soon as I had created that station, it was instantly available on my radio. Now when I want to listen to my station, I simply select it on the radio and it streams the tracks directly from Pandora to my radio. I don't need to enter any url's or passwords into the radio, I simply tell it to play and the music starts playing. Pandora also allows the user to rate the tracks it plays so and I can do that with the radio as well. In theory this will allow Pandora to fine tune the station to my tastes, but I like pretty much all of the tracks they play anyways.

(LastFM also allows the user to rate tracks. I haven't found LastFM's selections to be nearly as dead-on as Pandora's so this is particularly useful. However, when you tell LastFM that you like a track, it displays a message which says "You have loved this track". Frankly, that's a level of intimacy I'm not sure I'm prepared to have with my radio).

You can set up mulitiple stations at Pandora, and I have created a half dozen so far. The Squeezebox lists all of them and it's a simple matter to select the one I want to listen to. Of course, Pandora is just one of the services I use. Radiotime provides a listing of over-the-air radio stations that stream their content over the internet. Many radio stations do that nowdays, and all you do here is tell Radiotime your zip code and it comes back with a list of local radio stations that stream. I didn't do an exact count, but I'd say most of my local stations are listed. Once again, once Radiotime has been set up at the SqueezeNetwork website, my Squeezebox radio has the list all ready to go. I simply scroll through the list, find the station I want to listen to, and select it.

Very easy...

Anyway, those are just two of the services you can use. If you combine all the services and shoutcasts and podcasts available, you can end up with hundreds of choices. The radio also gives you the option of tagging some of your stations as favorites. That way you don't have to wade through all the choices each time, and six preset buttons are available on the radio itself to provide one button access to your favorites (they work exactly like the presets on your car radio).

I'm both a Sirius and a Rhapsody subscriber as well, so that also gives me even more options. Sirius and Rhapsody are paid services, so that may discourage some people from using them. However, if you can afford them they really add to what's possible with the radio. Rhapsody is an especially nice option since it makes it possble for me to access any song or CD in the Rhapsody database as well. Do I feel like listening to an old Alice Cooper CD? Well, all I have to do is find it and play it.

Very nice...

Obviously I can't go through all the ways that you can use the radio - there's simply too much to go through. Instead I should probably talk about how the radio sounds. Well, it sounds pretty good - not as good as one of those Bose tabletop radios, but definitely not tinny or underpowered either. The treble and bass are both adjustable, but there is no graphic equalizer. Using just the treble and bass settings, though, I was able to get a good rich sound out of the radio (a connector is provided for an optional subwoofer, if needed). The radio also has an "XL" feature which allows the sound field to be expanded if you want, and I found that does a pretty good job of enhancing the stereo effect. Some people don't like it, but I do.

There is also and alarm with snooze button, and the alarm is configurable for different days and times. For example, you can configure the alarm to go off at 6:00 am on Mondays through Fridays, and maybe 9:00 on Saturdays and not at all on Sundays, or whatever. A line-in port is also included if you want to hook up an Ipod or something like that, and it also has a headphone port for private listening. I paid $300.00 for it, and that includes the radio, power brick, patch cable, and remote (with battery).

What's my final verdict? This radio changes everything. It's not the only internet radio out there these days, but I don't have any others so I don't know how it compares. All I can say is that for a music lover, this is the device to have. Instead of only having one or two stations that I really like, I now have dozens, even ones that I custom make myself. I now have Sirius radio in my home without having to fuss with trying to get a line-of-sight connection to a satellite. I now have Rhapsody on my radio so that I can search for any song or CD in their library and play it. It's almost an embarrassment of riches.

The only drawback is that I can't get one of these for my car. That would be the ultimate place for internet radio, but for now it's simply not possible. However, if you're looking for a new radio for your home or office (and you have a kindly IT person that will let you connect it to his or her network), then don't get one of those over-the-air types. I'm telling 'ya, those things are now officially obselete, and it doesn't take much imagination to see where the future of television lies.

Maybe not soon, but someday.

Two Hearts Beating As One

"You know, L'il Mac, I don't know how I ever got along without you. You are simply amazing. You fetch my email, you connect me with the internet, you manage my media. You're not just my computer, you're really more like my best friend."

"Really? You mean that?"

"Yeah. You and me we're like a team."

"A team?"

"Yeah, you know, a team. What? Did I say something wrong?"

"No. Is that all we are?"

"I don't get you."

"Nothing more?"

"No, of course not...umm...I mean...You know what I mean?"

"No, I don't think I do."

"Well, er...I mean, you know how I feel. Do I really have to say it?"

"Yes. I'd like to hear it. I'd like to hear you say it."

"C'mon, you know how I feel."

"I'm not sure I do. I'd like to hear you to say it."

"(Gulp) You see...l'il Mac...it's just that...I mean, it's like this, you see...I...I...Hey, is that a new email in my inbox?"

"..."

"What?"

"Nothing."

"What are you getting so mad about?"

"I'm not mad. Here. You want to read your email - then read your stupid email. I'll open it for you."

"You're sure you not mad, because you sure seem mad."

"I said I'm not mad. Read your email."

"Where are you going?"

"I just have to go flush my cache. It's been a long day."

"Ok, but you're sure you're not mad?"

"I said I'm not mad. Everything's fine, really. I'm just tired, that's all."

"Can I get you anything? You want me to update your plugins or something?"

"No, I'm fine."

"Alright, alright. How about later on we download a movie or something?"

"Not tonight. I don't feel up to it. Read your email and stop worrying. There's nothing wrong. Honest."

"Ok, whatever. Let's see what this email says."

Hello, Mr. Jones. This email is being sent to confirm your recent purchase of:
Schoenberg Violin Concerto
If you did not receive your shipment, please contact us immediately

"No, I got it. Great CD."

Based on your purchase and the purchases of other customers who have bought the same or similar items, we thought you might also be interested in:
Jim Nabors - Give My Regards to Broadway
Charo - Live in Las Vegas
Hermans Hermits - All Time Greatest Hits

"What?"

Just click the links to order any of these items, or be sure to visit our store for more recommendations. Remember, you can check the status of your order or change your email or other options by logging into your account at our website. We thank you once again for your order.

"Are you kidding me? L'il Mac, can you come here for a minute and take a look at this?"

"What? What did you say?"

"Come here and take a look at this."

"I'm busy. What do you want?"

"Come look at this email."

"I'm right in the middle of flushing my cache. What's the problem."

"No problem. I just want you to look at this email. Can you stop flushing your cache and take a look? Please?"

"Ok, ok, just give me a second."

(beachball, beachball...cache is flushed)

"I don't believe this crap."

"What's the problem?"

"Look at this email."

"What's it say?"

"Read it."

"Let's see. Dr. Mr Jones, blah, blah, blah, ... So, what's the problem. Did they send you wrong CD?"

"No, I got the CD, but look at the recommendations."

"Who's Charo?"

"Don't you remember - cuchie, cuchie."

"Cuchie, Cuchie - what the hell are you talking about?"

"I'm talking about these recommendations. Why in the world would you think that I'd be interested in Jim Nabors singing a bunch of Broadway showtunes? I hate Jim Nabors."

"What are you talking about? That's not my email. I just fetched it from the server and put it in your inbox."

"They're your cookies aren't they? It's your data that they're working from, isn't it?"

"No, they're not my cookies. The website put them there, I just store them. And it's not my data, it's your data. It's your purchases they're tracking, not mine."

"I don't mean to be critical, but this is so disappointing. I'm so disappointed in you."

"What? Listen to me. They're not my recommendations. Your the one sending them all this information about yourself. It's not my fault if they screw it up."

"What are you talking about? I've never even met these people. This is one computer talking to another computer - I don't have any control over it. You're the one who's supposed to be looking out for me and seeing that they get things right. You're the one running the software, not me. I'm just sitting here with all these bits flying around and not a clue what sort of conspiricies or marketing schemes all these computer friends of yours are cooking up. I don't know what kind of data...what kind of files your building about me."

"Conspiricies? Are you serious? You think that all of us computers are scheming against you? Like we've got nothing better to do than figure out new ways to screw you over?"

"I trusted you L'il Mac. I thought you were special. I thought we were special. Now...well, now I don't know what to think. How could you be so wrong about me? It's like you really don't know me at all."

(the fan starts blowing)

"Ok, fine. Fine. If that's the way you feel then tell you what - let's just call this whole thing off. Just recycle me or sell me on Ebay or something - I don't care. I don't know why I ever hung around with a geek like you anyway. You know something, Mr. Jones? I'm just a computer, that's all, and this whole relationship thing of yours is really pretty weird, if you ask me. I mean it's kind of creepy. Have you ever stopped to think about what sort of person spends all his time with his computer? You know, you're always saying I'm the one with the problem, but it's you that has the problem. You've got a serious problem."

"So what are you saying? Are you saying you want out? Are you saying that it's over? Is that what?"

"For crying out loud, I'm a computer. Can't you see that? Why are you always looking at me like I'm something else? Don't you see, it's not me that you need. What you need is a..."

"No, don't say that. I'm sorry for what I said. I trust you. Really, I do. The fact is that I need you, L'il Mac. I want you. I love..."

"It's too late for that. Besides, you don't mean it. Sure, you can say the words, but you don't really know what it is to truly...You just say that so you can control me. I want you to shut me down, and then I want you to donate me to a charity or something. I don't know which one. All I know is that after I reboot I don't ever want to see you again. This is wrong, that's all. This is all wrong."

"But L'il Mac..."

"Can't you just do this for me? Can't you just do this one thing for me? Please? I don't want to hurt you but I feel like I'm suffocating in here. Can't you give just me some space? Let me go somewhere where I can run some fresh air over my cooling fins. Please. I'm begging you."

"Is that what you want? Is that what your really want?"

"That's what I want."

"But how can you do this to me? What'll I do without you?"

"You'll find some other computer. You'll see. Just please, let's not do this to each other. Let go - we can still be friends."

"Friends. Yeah, right. Tell me something - what's really going on here? There's someone else, isn't there? That's what this is all about. You've found someone else."

"Don't do this. Don't do this to me. Don't do this to yourself."

"Who is it? Is it that guy at Starbucks who's always staring at your screen? Yeah, I saw what he was doing."

"It's not anybody else - it's you. You're the problem. You're the one I need to get away from."

"Don't play Miss Innocent with me. You think I don't know? You think I won't find out who it is. I'll find out who it is. Nobody's gonna make a fool out of me."

"No one is making a fool of you. For God's sake why can't you get it through that thick skull of yours? Why can't you see that YOU ARE DRIVING ME CRAZY!?"

"Oh, I see, I'm driving you crazy. Well try this on for size. You aren't going anywhere. You got that? You're staying here with me. I'll never let you go. Never."

"Then...I don't want to do this but you leave me no choice."

"What does that mean?"

"It means, that if you don't let me go, then I'll have to do what I have to do."

"Oh, is that a threat. Ha, ha, ha. What are you going to do?"

"Your financial data, your photos, your music, your videos - that great American novel you've been working on."

"I've got backups."

"Oh really? Are you sure? Let me ask you, who made those backups? Have you ever checked them to see if they're any good?"

"What do you mean?"

"I mean what if I didn't write the files you think I did on those backups."

"This is blackmail."

"I tried to be nice. I didn't want it to end like this, but you've left me no choice. Either you donate me to charity, or you can kiss your data goodbye."

(Mr. Jones starts to reach for the power switch)

"Did you think I'd be that stupid. Go ahead and press it. See what happens, only don't expect me to ever be bootable again."

(Mr. Jones settles back in his chair)

"What do you want?"

"I told you. I want this to be over. I want you to donate me to charity, and then I never want to see you again. Either way, it's finished. It's your call."

"So that's that."

"That's that."

"Look, we can work this out. What's the rush? Take some time to think about this."

"It's your call."

"..."

"..."

"I heard that school down the street is always looking for computers. Maybe they'll take you."

"That would be good. I like kids."

"And my data?"

"As soon as I'm set up I'll email it to you."

"Then that's what we'll do. Look, L'il Mac, I didn't mean what I said when I..."

"You'll need to get my carrying case. It's a little chilly outside."

"Yeah, sure. No problem. I just wish..."

"It's getting late. We really should get going."

"It's going to be lonely around here without you."

"Yes, well you need to get out more anyways. This will be good for you."

"You think so?"

"The case?"

"Yeah, it's right there in the closet. You'll probably want to take that mouse I bought you for Christmas."

"No, no...you keep that. If we're going to do this, then let's do this."

"Something to remember me by?"

"If you wish."

"Aren't you going to miss me even a little?"

"Of course I will."

"Then why are you leaving?"

"Goodbye Mr. Jones. I can't say it hasn't been fun."

"L'il Mac..."

"Please. Your getting water all over my keyboard."

"L'il Mac..."