J'Accuse
There was a game we used to play back in my school days called "Dead Movie Stars", and, contrary to what you might think, the idea of the game was not to think of dead movie stars but to think of movie stars from a certain era like the 1920's or 1930's who were still alive, the point being the more famous the star the better. Anyways, I was sitting in traffic today playing the game in my head and I realized it was getting harder and harder to think of movie stars of yesteryear who are still around.
For example, back when I was a kid there were still quite a few stars from the 1920's around like Mary Pickford and Charlie Chaplin, but I can't think of any who are still alive today. Things get a little better in the 1930's, but now that Katherine Hepburn is gone the pickings are a lot thinner. A few major ones I came up with were:
Shirley Temple
Mickey Rooney
Olivia De Havilland
Jackie Cooper
When I moved on to the forties, the pickings were still pretty slim. I could only come up with three.
Deborah Kerr
Van Johnson
Elizabeth Taylor
I know there must be more, but I can't think of any.
Finally, when I got to the fifties, things started getting a lot easier.
Paul Newman
Joanne Woodward
Ernest Borgnine
Tony Curtis
Charlton Heston
etc...
And then, while I was thinking of the fifties, Richard Widmark suddenly came to mind, and I remembered something that has bothered me for a long time now. That is, I wonder how many people out there are aware that Richard Widmark has never won an Acadamy award, and in fact was nominated only once. I mean when you think back on all the movies he made, and some really good ones I might add, it seems incredible to me that he has never won an oscar.
It was bugging me the entire ride home, so I decided to fire up the old computer and surf on over to the Internet Movie Database to look up his biography, where I got the biggest shocker of all. Here I was at the IMDB, THE online source for movie facts and reviews, THE resource for all things movie related, THE place to go for information on your favorite movies and movie stars, and all they could manage for Richard Widmark was one short, sketchy little paragraph and no picture. Think about it. Richard Widmark, one of the greatest movie stars of all time, and the IMDB doesn't even think he rates a picture. Incredible.
And then I started to get a little irate the way older folk do sometimes when they see their cherished icons fade away into obscurity. It seems the movie fans of today just don't care to remember Tommy Udo in 'Kiss of Death' or Skip McCoy in 'Pickup on South Street'. They've never seen 'The Bedford Incident' or 'Madigan'? Movies like that and movie stars like Richard Widmark are just too quaint and old-fashioned for the sophisticated tastes of today's audiences.
Well, if that's the way it is, then that's the way it is, but I still have to wonder if the Acadamy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences doesn't owe their old stars at least a little bit of gratitude and recognition. Why, for example, hasn't the Acadamy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences ever awarded Richard Widmark a lifetime achievement award? Isn't that an award to honor those who've had outstanding careers and yet were somehow overlooked in the past? Isn't that why Cary Grant and Deborah Kerr were both given their honorary awards? Why is it that previous oscar winners such as Sidney Poitier and Elia Kazan have both won special oscars while someone like Richard Widmark continues to be overlooked? Hell, Elia Kazan already had two prior oscars when they gave him his lifetime achievement award, and Richard Widmark doesn't even have one.
It got my dander up and so I've decided to write a letter to the AMPAS to give them a piece of my mind. I've also decided to send letters to Martin Scorcese and Steven Spielberg and anyone else I think might be in a position to get something done. Not that I think that anyone will read them or care, but it seems like a just cause and, well, what have I got to lose.
And given that Richard Widmark must be around 90 years old, or so, I think it would be especially nice to see him get an award while he is still alive.
Tuesday, August 31, 2004
Monday, August 30, 2004
Ol' Man River
Isn't it nice to settle down with a cold beverage after a hard day working on the yard and reflect on all the loveliness you're labors have created. The lawn so green and healthy, the bushes neat and trim, the rose blooms glowing iridescent under the light of the setting sun. And as the evening breeze cools off the stifling heat of the day isn't it comforting just to sit there feeling industrious and accomplished, and ....wait a minute! What's that? Over there. Is that a WEED! No, it can't be. I'm finished. I'm relaxing now. I'm enjoying my cold beverage. That can't be another weed.
Oh man I tell 'ya, isn't that the way it always is in life. You work, you sweat, you toil, and just when you think you're finished, just when you think that you've earned your hour of sweet repose, life comes along and throws another weed in your path. I swear I'm getting too old for this.
Of course, that's what's nice about having children - especially young children. You just sit there drinking from life's beverage and when a weed pops up you say "Junior, go pick that weed over there. Yeah the big one - over there. That's it, now throw it in the garbage can. That a' boy. That's the chip off the ol' block"
Yeah, when you get old and tired it's nice to have some kids around. I don't have any kids but I think I better go get some because this working for a living isn't cutting it anymore. Let the young folk fight those battles and let us old timers just sit here and relax in the shade awhile. Sounds good, but before I do that I guess I better go over there and pick that weed.
Please Sir, Can I Have Some More?
I try really hard not to be topical in this blog, but there's this big political convention going on in New York and I just have one little thought I'd like to share. This is not a knock against the Republican party, either, because the thought really first occurred to me when I was watching the Democratic convention last month.
Anyways, as I was looking at the convention on the TV it suddenly struck me how quaint and innocent the whole thing was. I mean there was the delegation from Maine, and Massachusetts, and South Carolina, all waiving their little signs and cheering and gushing over the goings on, and all the while seeming so oblivious to just how irrelevant they had become. And I hate to say it, and I know they mean well, but let's get real here. If the convention truly reflected the p0litical reality of the situation then you wouldn't see state delegations there at all, would you? No, you would see the real powers in American politics down on that floor instead.
For example, over there about 10 rows back would be the Halliburton delegation, and next to them would be GM or Exxon Mobil. Over on the other side you might see the NRA or the Sierra Club, or the tobacco lobbyists or the big agribusiness conglomerates. Way in the back you might even catch a glance of OPEC or a wealthy Asian investor or two. You certainly wouldn't see states or average citizens on the floor, only those who wield real political power in Washington would be allowed. I mean, it's nice that they let us have our election and all, but after the votes are counted and the politicians sworn in, that's when the real transfer of power takes place. And by that I mean the transfer of power from the office holders to the money men.
And on that bitter and cynical note I think I'll call it a night.
Isn't it nice to settle down with a cold beverage after a hard day working on the yard and reflect on all the loveliness you're labors have created. The lawn so green and healthy, the bushes neat and trim, the rose blooms glowing iridescent under the light of the setting sun. And as the evening breeze cools off the stifling heat of the day isn't it comforting just to sit there feeling industrious and accomplished, and ....wait a minute! What's that? Over there. Is that a WEED! No, it can't be. I'm finished. I'm relaxing now. I'm enjoying my cold beverage. That can't be another weed.
Oh man I tell 'ya, isn't that the way it always is in life. You work, you sweat, you toil, and just when you think you're finished, just when you think that you've earned your hour of sweet repose, life comes along and throws another weed in your path. I swear I'm getting too old for this.
Of course, that's what's nice about having children - especially young children. You just sit there drinking from life's beverage and when a weed pops up you say "Junior, go pick that weed over there. Yeah the big one - over there. That's it, now throw it in the garbage can. That a' boy. That's the chip off the ol' block"
Yeah, when you get old and tired it's nice to have some kids around. I don't have any kids but I think I better go get some because this working for a living isn't cutting it anymore. Let the young folk fight those battles and let us old timers just sit here and relax in the shade awhile. Sounds good, but before I do that I guess I better go over there and pick that weed
Please Sir, Can I Have Some More?
I try really hard not to be topical in this blog, but there's this big political convention going on in New York and I just have one little thought I'd like to share. This is not a knock against the Republican party, either, because the thought really first occurred to me when I was watching the Democratic convention last month.
Anyways, as I was looking at the convention on the TV it suddenly struck me how quaint and innocent the whole thing was. I mean there was the delegation from Maine, and Massachusetts, and South Carolina, all waiving their little signs and cheering and gushing over the goings on, and all the while seeming so oblivious to just how irrelevant they had become. And I hate to say it, and I know they mean well, but let's get real here. If the convention truly reflected the p0litical reality of the situation then you wouldn't see state delegations there at all, would you? No, you would see the real powers in American politics down on that floor instead.
For example, over there about 10 rows back would be the Halliburton delegation, and next to them would be GM or Exxon Mobil. Over on the other side you might see the NRA or the Sierra Club, or the tobacco lobbyists or the big agribusiness conglomerates. Way in the back you might even catch a glance of OPEC or a wealthy Asian investor or two. You certainly wouldn't see states or average citizens on the floor, only those who wield real political power in Washington would be allowed. I mean, it's nice that they let us have our election and all, but after the votes are counted and the politicians sworn in, that's when the real transfer of power takes place. And by that I mean the transfer of power from the office holders to the money men.
And on that bitter and cynical note I think I'll call it a night.
Wednesday, August 25, 2004
Stay Tuned, the Weather is Next
You know when there's nothing else to talk about you can always talk about the weather. Fact is I've been thinking of picking up a few extra bucks on the side by starting my own little South Bay internet weatherman school. I figure for around 5 or 6 grand a pop it shouldn't be too hard to teach any hopefuls out there the basics of South Bay weathermaning. After all, we really only have 3 different kinds of weather down here so how hard can it be? I've even worked out a little course outline and broken it down into 3 easy-to-learn lessons. Feel free to take a look and let me know if you'd be interested in signing up.
My first lesson will cover "foggy at the coast turning to sunny inland." That forecast will work for about 9 months out of the year and is really the only thing any South Bay weatherman needs to know to get started in the weatherman business. Of course people will get bored if you just get on the air and say "foggy at the coast turning to sunny inland" everyday, so I'll also throw in a few pointers on how to break things up a little. For instance, you could say "for you folks at the coast, look for foggy conditions to persist throughout the day tomorrow, and for you folks farther inland, expect plenty of sunshine." You know, embellish it a little and make it sound authoritative and official.
My second lesson will cover "We have a cold front moving in from the Gulf of Alaska but this ridge of high pressure should keep it well to the north of us." That's an important one to know for when winter comes along. You also need to add a "Expect cooler temperatures with a slight chance of showers in the North Bay" if you use this one, but don't overdo it. Just say "ridge of high pressure" and most Bay Areans will know what you mean.
My third and final lesson will cover the rarely used "Expect rain to start overnight in the North Bay and gradually work it's way throughout the entire Bay Area by tomorrow evening." This one's tricky, though, because it can be raining buckets in Santa Rosa and still be bone dry down in the South Bay. If you're a South Bay weatherman and you're going to stick your neck out with this one then you better qualify it by saying something like "Look for heavy preciptation tomorrow, mainly in the North Bay, tapering off by tomorrow evening." Notice the difference?
First of all, instead of using the word "rain" it's always better to say "precipitation" because no one knows what that means. "Precipitation" could be anything from a heavy dew to a category 5 hurricane, so you're not really comitted to anything. That way, when you get angry letters the next day because the rainstorm never came you can always reply "I didn't say it was going to rain, I said it was going to precipitate." Clever, huh? And second of all, never come out and explicitly say that it's going to rain in the South Bay - say "taper off" instead. Don't commit to anything and you'll be just fine.
And whoops, that'll be the course. I know it's kind of quick, but it does contain just about everything you need to know to get started. Three easy lessons and you too could be on your way to an exciting career as a South Bay weather forecaster. And even better, as an added bonus for those who complete the course (and whose checks don't bounce) I'll even add at no extra charge the secret weather phrase that every professional weatherman knows is the key to success in this business. You've probably heard it used a million times and I know it always makes me want to jump out of my chair, stick my hands through the TV screen and strangle the weatherman when I hear him/her use it, but just ask any weatherman how they made it to the top and they'll all tell you the same thing. Know the secret phrase. Know the secret phrase. And if you sign up for the course I'll let you know the phrase as well.
Pretty sneaky, huh?
Oh, alright, I won't keep you in suspense. I'll tell you the phrase but you've got to promise that you won't divulge it to anyone else or use it in a manner that would violate the sacred weatherman's bond. You promise? Ok, the secret weather phrase is.... "on tap". "On tap?", you say, what's so special about that? What makes that phrase so powerful? I don't know, but successful weathermen everywhere use it, and you need only look at the results to appreciate its power.
Try practicing these phrases at home and see if you don't agree:
"Looks like more of the same on tap for tomorrow."
"Let's go to the map and see what's on tap for your morning commute."
"It's gonna start out foggy, but by the afternoon their should be plenty of sunshine on tap."
"Looking at our 5 day forecast looks like there's more hot weather on tap for the remainder of your week."
Yeah, you know what I'm talking about. You hear it all the time but never realized how powerful it was, did you? In fact it's so powerful that Webster's has recently added "on tap" as a synonym for "what's the weather going to be like tomorrow", and not only in America but throughout the world. It's true. You could be in Nepal climbing Mt. Everest and even your Sherpa carrier would understand.
"What's the weather gonna be like up there tomorrow?"
"Huh?"
"The weather. What's the forecast for tomorrow?"
"What?"
"Tomorrow's weather. Do you think we could hit any storms?"
"I'm sorry, I don't understand."
"On tap. On tap."
"Oh, Cold and windy with a slight chance of morning precipitation tapering off by afternoon. There is a cold front moving in from the Gulf of Alaska but this ridge of high pressure should keep it well to the north of us. Expect fog at the coast and sunny conditions further inland. "
Well that's it for me, now it's back to you folks in the newsroom.
You know when there's nothing else to talk about you can always talk about the weather. Fact is I've been thinking of picking up a few extra bucks on the side by starting my own little South Bay internet weatherman school. I figure for around 5 or 6 grand a pop it shouldn't be too hard to teach any hopefuls out there the basics of South Bay weathermaning. After all, we really only have 3 different kinds of weather down here so how hard can it be? I've even worked out a little course outline and broken it down into 3 easy-to-learn lessons. Feel free to take a look and let me know if you'd be interested in signing up.
My first lesson will cover "foggy at the coast turning to sunny inland." That forecast will work for about 9 months out of the year and is really the only thing any South Bay weatherman needs to know to get started in the weatherman business. Of course people will get bored if you just get on the air and say "foggy at the coast turning to sunny inland" everyday, so I'll also throw in a few pointers on how to break things up a little. For instance, you could say "for you folks at the coast, look for foggy conditions to persist throughout the day tomorrow, and for you folks farther inland, expect plenty of sunshine." You know, embellish it a little and make it sound authoritative and official.
My second lesson will cover "We have a cold front moving in from the Gulf of Alaska but this ridge of high pressure should keep it well to the north of us." That's an important one to know for when winter comes along. You also need to add a "Expect cooler temperatures with a slight chance of showers in the North Bay" if you use this one, but don't overdo it. Just say "ridge of high pressure" and most Bay Areans will know what you mean.
My third and final lesson will cover the rarely used "Expect rain to start overnight in the North Bay and gradually work it's way throughout the entire Bay Area by tomorrow evening." This one's tricky, though, because it can be raining buckets in Santa Rosa and still be bone dry down in the South Bay. If you're a South Bay weatherman and you're going to stick your neck out with this one then you better qualify it by saying something like "Look for heavy preciptation tomorrow, mainly in the North Bay, tapering off by tomorrow evening." Notice the difference?
First of all, instead of using the word "rain" it's always better to say "precipitation" because no one knows what that means. "Precipitation" could be anything from a heavy dew to a category 5 hurricane, so you're not really comitted to anything. That way, when you get angry letters the next day because the rainstorm never came you can always reply "I didn't say it was going to rain, I said it was going to precipitate." Clever, huh? And second of all, never come out and explicitly say that it's going to rain in the South Bay - say "taper off" instead. Don't commit to anything and you'll be just fine.
And whoops, that'll be the course. I know it's kind of quick, but it does contain just about everything you need to know to get started. Three easy lessons and you too could be on your way to an exciting career as a South Bay weather forecaster. And even better, as an added bonus for those who complete the course (and whose checks don't bounce) I'll even add at no extra charge the secret weather phrase that every professional weatherman knows is the key to success in this business. You've probably heard it used a million times and I know it always makes me want to jump out of my chair, stick my hands through the TV screen and strangle the weatherman when I hear him/her use it, but just ask any weatherman how they made it to the top and they'll all tell you the same thing. Know the secret phrase. Know the secret phrase. And if you sign up for the course I'll let you know the phrase as well.
Pretty sneaky, huh?
Oh, alright, I won't keep you in suspense. I'll tell you the phrase but you've got to promise that you won't divulge it to anyone else or use it in a manner that would violate the sacred weatherman's bond. You promise? Ok, the secret weather phrase is.... "on tap". "On tap?", you say, what's so special about that? What makes that phrase so powerful? I don't know, but successful weathermen everywhere use it, and you need only look at the results to appreciate its power.
Try practicing these phrases at home and see if you don't agree:
"Looks like more of the same on tap for tomorrow."
"Let's go to the map and see what's on tap for your morning commute."
"It's gonna start out foggy, but by the afternoon their should be plenty of sunshine on tap."
"Looking at our 5 day forecast looks like there's more hot weather on tap for the remainder of your week."
Yeah, you know what I'm talking about. You hear it all the time but never realized how powerful it was, did you? In fact it's so powerful that Webster's has recently added "on tap" as a synonym for "what's the weather going to be like tomorrow", and not only in America but throughout the world. It's true. You could be in Nepal climbing Mt. Everest and even your Sherpa carrier would understand.
"What's the weather gonna be like up there tomorrow?"
"Huh?"
"The weather. What's the forecast for tomorrow?"
"What?"
"Tomorrow's weather. Do you think we could hit any storms?"
"I'm sorry, I don't understand."
"On tap. On tap."
"Oh, Cold and windy with a slight chance of morning precipitation tapering off by afternoon. There is a cold front moving in from the Gulf of Alaska but this ridge of high pressure should keep it well to the north of us. Expect fog at the coast and sunny conditions further inland. "
Well that's it for me, now it's back to you folks in the newsroom.
Monday, August 23, 2004
The Sporting Life
Now, where was I? Damn, these Olympics have really cut into my blog time. And speaking of the Olympics, I hope you managed to catch the air rifle competition last week. I know, it sounds dull, but believe me, it was anything but.
Imagine taking a BB gun and hitting a target the size of a nickel from 10 meters away. Then imagine having to hit the center of the target, an area no bigger than the period at the end of this sentence, with just the naked eye (no scopes allowed) to get a score good enough to stay in the competition. Then imagine hitting that period from 10 meters away on a consistent enough basis to win the competition. I know the word is overused, but it was amazing. I couldn't believe anyone could even see the target, let alone hit it, let alone dot the i as it were, and you have to wonder how anyone could ever get that good with a BB gun. Mom and dad buy you a BB gun one day when you're a kid and you just keep practicing, and practicing, and practicing, and pretty soon there you are going for the gold at the Olympics.
Amazing.
I Love a Mystery
If y0u haven't read The DaVinci Code yet then congratulations, you're probably the only person in America who hasn't. I thought I was the only person who hadn't read it, but I finally broke down and gave it a read, and all I've got to say is geez, just what we need is another conspiracy theory. I mean I haven't even finished digesting the JFK assassination, Area 54, or the whole flat earth thing yet and, uh-oh, here we go again.
I don't want to get into the details but this definitely has to be the mother of all conspiracies. I guess it all falls into the category of the "big whopper" - you know, the taller the tale, the more believable it becomes. And believe me, this is one tall tale. Yet there I was turning page after page, itching to find out what happens next, ready for the next mind-blowing revelation, sucking it all in just like everybody else. Shows how sophisticated I am.
But it's obvious, really, why people keep falling for this stuff. Just start with some sort of mystery, real or imagined, add some sketchy evidence and unsupported conclusions, say a few abracadabra's, and then take a blind leap of faith into the world of simple answers and presto - you've got yourself one satisfying read. And it is satisfying, much more so than taking a realistic look at things and trying to come up with some sort of reality-based explanation. I mean, would you rather read a Stephen Hawking book about string theory and quantum mechanics with concepts so obtuse that it would take you a lifetime of study to understand them, or would you rather read a Dan Brown book that explains something like the Holy Grail mystery with simple certitude in terms that any child could understand.
I rest my case.
The Opera Ain't Over Till The ...
Just one more thing, and then I gotta get back to the Olympics. There was an article in the paper yesterday about a theater director named Gerald Thomas who it seems got a little upset with the patrons after a performance of Tristan und Isolde down in Rio de Janeiro. According to the article, there were a few boos when the final curtain came down, so aftewards Thomas went out on the stage, dropped his pants, and proceeded to moon the audience. Turns out it caused quite a stir, and luckily for Thomas the Supreme Court finally decided to toss out the obscenity charges against him. But you know what I think? I think this story just points out the biggest difference between going to the symphony and going to the opera. I mean, can you just imagine someone like Michael Tilson Thomas walking out on stage and mooning the audience after a performance of the Mahler 5. No, you can't, can you. That sort of thing could only happen in an Opera House.
God, I love opera!
Now, where was I? Damn, these Olympics have really cut into my blog time. And speaking of the Olympics, I hope you managed to catch the air rifle competition last week. I know, it sounds dull, but believe me, it was anything but.
Imagine taking a BB gun and hitting a target the size of a nickel from 10 meters away. Then imagine having to hit the center of the target, an area no bigger than the period at the end of this sentence, with just the naked eye (no scopes allowed) to get a score good enough to stay in the competition. Then imagine hitting that period from 10 meters away on a consistent enough basis to win the competition. I know the word is overused, but it was amazing. I couldn't believe anyone could even see the target, let alone hit it, let alone dot the i as it were, and you have to wonder how anyone could ever get that good with a BB gun. Mom and dad buy you a BB gun one day when you're a kid and you just keep practicing, and practicing, and practicing, and pretty soon there you are going for the gold at the Olympics.
Amazing.
I Love a Mystery
If y0u haven't read The DaVinci Code yet then congratulations, you're probably the only person in America who hasn't. I thought I was the only person who hadn't read it, but I finally broke down and gave it a read, and all I've got to say is geez, just what we need is another conspiracy theory. I mean I haven't even finished digesting the JFK assassination, Area 54, or the whole flat earth thing yet and, uh-oh, here we go again.
I don't want to get into the details but this definitely has to be the mother of all conspiracies. I guess it all falls into the category of the "big whopper" - you know, the taller the tale, the more believable it becomes. And believe me, this is one tall tale. Yet there I was turning page after page, itching to find out what happens next, ready for the next mind-blowing revelation, sucking it all in just like everybody else. Shows how sophisticated I am.
But it's obvious, really, why people keep falling for this stuff. Just start with some sort of mystery, real or imagined, add some sketchy evidence and unsupported conclusions, say a few abracadabra's, and then take a blind leap of faith into the world of simple answers and presto - you've got yourself one satisfying read. And it is satisfying, much more so than taking a realistic look at things and trying to come up with some sort of reality-based explanation. I mean, would you rather read a Stephen Hawking book about string theory and quantum mechanics with concepts so obtuse that it would take you a lifetime of study to understand them, or would you rather read a Dan Brown book that explains something like the Holy Grail mystery with simple certitude in terms that any child could understand.
I rest my case.
The Opera Ain't Over Till The ...
Just one more thing, and then I gotta get back to the Olympics. There was an article in the paper yesterday about a theater director named Gerald Thomas who it seems got a little upset with the patrons after a performance of Tristan und Isolde down in Rio de Janeiro. According to the article, there were a few boos when the final curtain came down, so aftewards Thomas went out on the stage, dropped his pants, and proceeded to moon the audience. Turns out it caused quite a stir, and luckily for Thomas the Supreme Court finally decided to toss out the obscenity charges against him. But you know what I think? I think this story just points out the biggest difference between going to the symphony and going to the opera. I mean, can you just imagine someone like Michael Tilson Thomas walking out on stage and mooning the audience after a performance of the Mahler 5. No, you can't, can you. That sort of thing could only happen in an Opera House.
God, I love opera!
Tuesday, August 10, 2004
My Date With Olympia (with apologies to Hoffman)
One thing I never do is mess around on my main machine. When people ask me why I need three computers I tell them - I have a laptop for portability, I have a play machine that I experiment with and try new things on, and I have my main machine with all my important programs and data on it. And one thing I never do is mess around on my main machine. This is one of two unspoken rules I have when it comes to my computers. I never mess around with my main machine being the first, and I always keep my main machine backed up is the second. I'm very strict about this because I don't want to put my important data at risk. It's a pain and a bother sometimes, but you have to be disciplined if you want to be safe.
So, anyways, last night around dinner time I was messing around on my main machine. Well, I wasn't really messing around because that's something I never do with my main machine. No, I was just going to try out this one little thing, and it would only take a couple of minutes so there wasn't any chance of anything going wrong. Nope, that's not breaking my rule, it was perfectly safe.
Well, to make a long story short, about 1 am in the morning I finally got through to tech support to try and figure out what happened to my machine. Everytime I tried to boot it gave me an "Operating System Not Found" error, and reinstalling Windows wasn't working because the installation program kept telling me I didn't have any hard drives. I tried every trick I knew but nothing was working. And I was scared. I mean I've been playing with computers for almost my entire adult life, and this was the first time in a long, long time where I actually didn't know what to do. So, I called tech support and after holding for an hour or so I finally got through.
"Hello, can I have your customer code please."
"Sure, it's blah blah blah blah."
"Thank you, you're name please."
"Blah blah blah."
"Thank you, what seems to be the problem."
I was expecting one of those foreign sounding people you get when you call customer service these days, but this guy was good. I mean he sounded like a sk8tr boy from L.A. So I explained my problem. Computer won't boot, hard drive is MIA, and can't install Windows.
"Did you install the SATA drivers?" he asked me.
(The SATA drivers? They have SATA drivers nowdays? Geez, I don't want this guy to think I'm new or something)
"The SATA drivers? No, say come to think of it, I don't think I did."
"Well sir, you have to install the SATA drivers before you can install Windows. What are you - NEW?"
"No I'm not N- ... Hey look here you punk kid, I've been crashing systems since before you were born. "
"I'm sure you have sir. Let's try installing the SATA drivers and then see what happens."
"Yeah, ok, I was gonna do that but I didn't think it was necessary. Let's see, I need the diskette for that, don't I?"
(Then I hear a pause which can only mean one thing. He's got a lamer on the line and figures he's gonna need to go real slow with this one.)
"Yes, just put the diskette in the drive. Boot from the CD and when the program asks you to press F6 to install the SATA drivers, press F6 and follow the screens."
"Yeah, I know, I know. I've reinstalled Windows hundreds of times before."
"Yes, I'm sure you have sir."
(Yeah, I caught that little sarcastic remark. You think you're pretty smart, don't you kid. Well tell me something, sk8tr boy, if you're so smart how come you're doing tech support on the graveyard shift. I mean, shouldn't a genius like you be out stealing peoples credit card numbers or something.)
"Well that seemed to fix the problem. Thanks for the help"
"Anytime. Have a good night."
So that was that. SATA drivers - didn't think of that. Now all I had to do was activate my copy of Windows. So I go to the website and they tell me there's a problem and give me a phone number to call. By now it's around 2 am but I want to get my computer working so I call and I get their automated activation service. And let me tell you, it's kind of cool. The installation program gives you 8 sets of six digit numbers that you speak into the phone to their computer on the other end, and each time you finish a set of numbers a little doorbell rings and the computer says (in a very sexy voice) "good job". I don't know about anyone else, but it was a real ego trip for me.
"Please speak your first set of numbers"
"654455"
Ding dong "Good Job!"
(Why thank you. Nice of you to say that)
"Please speak your second set of numbers"
"322694"
Ding dong "Good Job!"
(It was nothing really. I've always had good diction)
"Please speak your third set of numbers"
"198654"
Ding dong "Good Job!"
(Oh please, now you're making me blush)
"Please speak your fourth set of numbers"
"547683"
Ding dong "Good Job!"
(You know, for a computer you're really very nice. I was feeling kind of upset when I called but after speaking with you - I don't know. I feel pretty good about myself now)
"Please speak your fifth set of numbers"
"857622"
Ding dong "Good Job!"
(Man, I like talking to you. You're always so positive. Hey, how about you and I getting together a little later)
"Please speak your sixth set of numbers"
"943566"
Ding dong "Good Job!"
(No, I'm serious. What time do you get off?)
"Please speak your seventh set of numbers"
(Again with the numbers. Ok)
"746522"
Ding dong "Good Job!"
(That was a good job, wasn't it. Yep, I guess I'm just about the best number-sayer around. But no one ever noticed before you came along. That's just it, don't you see. No one ever really appreciated me the way you do. I know you're just a computer, but... I think I love you)
"Almost through. Please speak your eighth set of numbers"
"087685"
Ding dong "Good Job! This concludes your Windows activation. You may now press the Finish button to continue"
(That's it. Just press Finish and pretend that none of this ever happened. No, I can't. I can't, I tell ya. Please, computer, don't let it end this way. If you walk away now, you'll regret it. Maybe not today. Maybe not tomorrow. But soon, and for the rest of your life. Computer, are you there? Computer? Computer...)
And that was that. I got my computer back. I loaded the drivers and all the basic software I needed to get going again, and then I looked out the window and could see the night sky starting to fade to blue. The clock said 5 am and I had to be at work in three hours, but my main machine was up and running again. And so I got about an hour and a half of sleep before I dragged myself off to work, and all day long I just dragged and dragged, and now I'm home and I should be sleeping, but...
(sigh) how can I sleep with this broken heart.
One thing I never do is mess around on my main machine. When people ask me why I need three computers I tell them - I have a laptop for portability, I have a play machine that I experiment with and try new things on, and I have my main machine with all my important programs and data on it. And one thing I never do is mess around on my main machine. This is one of two unspoken rules I have when it comes to my computers. I never mess around with my main machine being the first, and I always keep my main machine backed up is the second. I'm very strict about this because I don't want to put my important data at risk. It's a pain and a bother sometimes, but you have to be disciplined if you want to be safe.
So, anyways, last night around dinner time I was messing around on my main machine. Well, I wasn't really messing around because that's something I never do with my main machine. No, I was just going to try out this one little thing, and it would only take a couple of minutes so there wasn't any chance of anything going wrong. Nope, that's not breaking my rule, it was perfectly safe.
Well, to make a long story short, about 1 am in the morning I finally got through to tech support to try and figure out what happened to my machine. Everytime I tried to boot it gave me an "Operating System Not Found" error, and reinstalling Windows wasn't working because the installation program kept telling me I didn't have any hard drives. I tried every trick I knew but nothing was working. And I was scared. I mean I've been playing with computers for almost my entire adult life, and this was the first time in a long, long time where I actually didn't know what to do. So, I called tech support and after holding for an hour or so I finally got through.
"Hello, can I have your customer code please."
"Sure, it's blah blah blah blah."
"Thank you, you're name please."
"Blah blah blah."
"Thank you, what seems to be the problem."
I was expecting one of those foreign sounding people you get when you call customer service these days, but this guy was good. I mean he sounded like a sk8tr boy from L.A. So I explained my problem. Computer won't boot, hard drive is MIA, and can't install Windows.
"Did you install the SATA drivers?" he asked me.
(The SATA drivers? They have SATA drivers nowdays? Geez, I don't want this guy to think I'm new or something)
"The SATA drivers? No, say come to think of it, I don't think I did."
"Well sir, you have to install the SATA drivers before you can install Windows. What are you - NEW?"
"No I'm not N- ... Hey look here you punk kid, I've been crashing systems since before you were born. "
"I'm sure you have sir. Let's try installing the SATA drivers and then see what happens."
"Yeah, ok, I was gonna do that but I didn't think it was necessary. Let's see, I need the diskette for that, don't I?"
(Then I hear a pause which can only mean one thing. He's got a lamer on the line and figures he's gonna need to go real slow with this one.)
"Yes, just put the diskette in the drive. Boot from the CD and when the program asks you to press F6 to install the SATA drivers, press F6 and follow the screens."
"Yeah, I know, I know. I've reinstalled Windows hundreds of times before."
"Yes, I'm sure you have sir."
(Yeah, I caught that little sarcastic remark. You think you're pretty smart, don't you kid. Well tell me something, sk8tr boy, if you're so smart how come you're doing tech support on the graveyard shift. I mean, shouldn't a genius like you be out stealing peoples credit card numbers or something.)
"Well that seemed to fix the problem. Thanks for the help"
"Anytime. Have a good night."
So that was that. SATA drivers - didn't think of that. Now all I had to do was activate my copy of Windows. So I go to the website and they tell me there's a problem and give me a phone number to call. By now it's around 2 am but I want to get my computer working so I call and I get their automated activation service. And let me tell you, it's kind of cool. The installation program gives you 8 sets of six digit numbers that you speak into the phone to their computer on the other end, and each time you finish a set of numbers a little doorbell rings and the computer says (in a very sexy voice) "good job". I don't know about anyone else, but it was a real ego trip for me.
"Please speak your first set of numbers"
"654455"
Ding dong "Good Job!"
(Why thank you. Nice of you to say that)
"Please speak your second set of numbers"
"322694"
Ding dong "Good Job!"
(It was nothing really. I've always had good diction)
"Please speak your third set of numbers"
"198654"
Ding dong "Good Job!"
(Oh please, now you're making me blush)
"Please speak your fourth set of numbers"
"547683"
Ding dong "Good Job!"
(You know, for a computer you're really very nice. I was feeling kind of upset when I called but after speaking with you - I don't know. I feel pretty good about myself now)
"Please speak your fifth set of numbers"
"857622"
Ding dong "Good Job!"
(Man, I like talking to you. You're always so positive. Hey, how about you and I getting together a little later)
"Please speak your sixth set of numbers"
"943566"
Ding dong "Good Job!"
(No, I'm serious. What time do you get off?)
"Please speak your seventh set of numbers"
(Again with the numbers. Ok)
"746522"
Ding dong "Good Job!"
(That was a good job, wasn't it. Yep, I guess I'm just about the best number-sayer around. But no one ever noticed before you came along. That's just it, don't you see. No one ever really appreciated me the way you do. I know you're just a computer, but... I think I love you)
"Almost through. Please speak your eighth set of numbers"
"087685"
Ding dong "Good Job! This concludes your Windows activation. You may now press the Finish button to continue"
(That's it. Just press Finish and pretend that none of this ever happened. No, I can't. I can't, I tell ya. Please, computer, don't let it end this way. If you walk away now, you'll regret it. Maybe not today. Maybe not tomorrow. But soon, and for the rest of your life. Computer, are you there? Computer? Computer...)
And that was that. I got my computer back. I loaded the drivers and all the basic software I needed to get going again, and then I looked out the window and could see the night sky starting to fade to blue. The clock said 5 am and I had to be at work in three hours, but my main machine was up and running again. And so I got about an hour and a half of sleep before I dragged myself off to work, and all day long I just dragged and dragged, and now I'm home and I should be sleeping, but...
(sigh) how can I sleep with this broken heart.
Wednesday, August 04, 2004
And We Go 'Round and 'Round and 'Round in the Circle Game
The guy on the radio asked if we could guess which city ranked number one as the worst city in America to drive in, and I blurted it out before he could even finish the question. Yep, that's right, hands-down, the worst city in America to drive in is good 'ol Boston Massachusetts. Of course I didn't need a survey to tell me that. No, I've driven cross-country at least nine or ten times (did I tell you I hate to fly) and across Canada twice, and no city I've ever been through - not Seattle , not Washington DC, not even the big apple even comes close to Boston in terms of nightmare places to drive. In fact Boston is unique in that it is the only place I've ever driven where you can get totally lost even with map in hand.
I still remember the first time I drove Boston about 15 or 20 years ago. I flew into Logan airport planning to rent a car and drive to my hotel in Cambridge, Mass. On the map this looked like a fairly simple procedure. Just exit the airport, get on the freeway, cross the Charles River, and make a left towards Harvard University. So I rented my car, took one of the little maps they had at the counter, got my bearings, headed out of the airport and managed to wind up in Salem, Massachusetts (which, by the way, is no where near Cambridge).
How did I end up in Salem, you may ask. Well, I don't know. I was doing alright at first. I was on the freeway going over the river, and everything was going great until I took the wrong exit off the freeway. Of course I didn't know it was the wrong exit at the time so I just drove and drove until suddenly I looked out the front windshield and saw the Atlantic Ocean lying out in front of me. Hmmm, I said, that doesn't seem right, and sure enough after checking my map I saw that Cambridge shouldn't be next to the ocean but in the completely opposite direction.
Well that's ok, I said, applying my California driving skills to the problem, I'll just head back towards the freeway and start all over again . Unfortunately, before I could find the freeway I had to figure out where the hell I was, and therein lies the first problem with driving around the greater Boston area. You see, in California we have these things called street signs. You generally find them at intersections and they help the driver identify not only the street he is currently travelling, but cross streets as well. They don't have street signs in Massachusetts, however, because apparently all those Harvard and MIT grads out there have got the entire state memorized and don't need them. I need them, though, and so I looked and looked for a sign and couldn't find one, and then I drove a little further and still couldn't find one, and a little further, and so on and so on, until finally I just said the heck with it and turned the car around and headed back in the direction I just came. Which brings me to the second problem with Boston driving.
You see, in California we tend to have very simple intersections. Two roads meet at more or less perpindicular angles and you have the choice of turning right or left or continuing straight ahead. Around Boston, however, things aren't so easy because (1) the roads don't run perpindicular but kind of meander around this way and that and meet at all sorts of crazy angles and (2) a lot of times when roads meet they come from all different directions and just bunch together like pieces of knotted string. So like I said, I turned around and started back the way I came but soon discovered the road looked very different when viewed from the opposite direction, and sure enough it wasn't long before I came to one of these seven-way intersections where I had the choice of going kind of down and to the right, or kind of up and to the right, or straight ahead, or kind of straight ahead but a little to the left, or kind of ... well, you get the picture. Oh, and did I mention - no street signs!
So the light was red and I was desperately searching my map for big knotty intersections next to the ocean, but I couldn't find any and didn't have a clue which way I was supposed to go. Suddenly a little bulb went off above my head and I remembered an old children's game - one potato, two potato, three potatoes, four. The light turned green and I said "Ok, that way looks good" and off I drove. Well the road started off ok, I mean it seemed to going in the right direction, but then it started to meander on me and soon I was looking out of my windshield at the Atlantic Ocean again. Only this time I was really lost and didn't have a clue where I was at.
And then I had another brainstorm. I was looking at my map and noticed that if I just followed the ocean north, I should run into an east-west road sooner or later that would take me back to the freeway. It seemed like a brilliant idea at the time, and would have worked except for the third problem I had with driving around Boston. This third one is hard to describe because, you see, we don't have these in California, or anywhere else west of the Appalachians as far as I know. But out in Boston they've got these wonderful little things, little traffic devices they like to call Rotaries. Up in Canada they have them and call them roundabouts, but up until that first trip to Boston I had never run into one before. Little did I know I was about to get an education.
A rotary, for the uninitiated out there, is a little traffic circle that is used to connect intersections together. They were invented in France, I believe, and the most famous one is probably that thing that runs around the Arc de Triomphe in Paris. The idea is simple. Cars enter the rotary and go around in a circle until they reach their destination, at which point they exit the rotary. The cars in the rotary have the right of way and those entering the rotary yield to the traffic in the rotary until it safe to enter. That's the theory, anyways, and after all what could be simpler. My experience, however, was a little different.
First let me say I was lost and didn't know where I was going. Second, I didn't know what a rotary was. And third, it was about 6 o'clock in the evening and the height of rush hour when I entered this one. Now, remember, in theory when you enter the rotary you are supposed to yield to the traffic in the rotary and enter when safe. Well, safe is a relative term, I guess, because when I approached the rotary all I found was total, dog-eat-dog chaos. Cars were racing around in circles, weaving in and out, cutting each other off, leaning on their horns and in no mood to let some newbie from California "enter when safe". To their credit, though, I must say that Massachusetts drivers are an exeptionally patient and understanding lot, and as I sat at the entrance waiting for a chance to enter it seemed the cars lined up behind me went out of their way to be helpful. I remember looking in my rear view mirror at them and seeing their arms sticking out their windows, middle fingers extended up in the air, which seemed incredibly thoughtful to me. It was some type of signal, I thought, sort of the polite Massachusetts way of gesturing "Yes, you may safely proceed now." Ah how fondly I remember all the friends I made that day.
Eventually I got tired of waiting and decided to just say the hell with it, it's not my car, and hit the accelerator and jumped into the fray. I made it into the rotary (although I wouldn't say "safely") and started my little adventure. Soon it became apparent to me that in Massachusetts, at least, yield is strictly an acadamic term, and in reality the car that has the right of way is whatever car you happen to be in at the time. Once I got used to it I was alright. You know, it's a kind of a "kill or be killed" experience. The adrenaline starts flowing, the blood pressure starts rising, and pretty soon I was giving others the old Massachusetts signal just like they had so kindly extended to me. Unfortunately I still didn't know where I was going (did I mention -no signs!) and so I just one potato, two potatoed it out of the rotary and went on my way.
And I never found that east-west road. About a half hour or so later I was in Salem and no, it wasn't Cambridge, it wasn't my hotel, but then Salem is a nice town. Sort of quaint and New Englandy with little sailboats dotting the ocean, and so I stopped by the famous House of Seven Gables and walked around the grounds a while before I got back in my car made my way back to interstate. The interstate took me south and about five hours after landing at Logan I finally managed to make it to my hotel where I parked my car, slept all night, and then made the decision to take the MTA the entire rest of my stay. Thank God for the MTA. It had routes and maps and all I needed to remember was what color train to take.
Just as a postscript, the survey didn't mention the easiest city to drive in but I'd have to say Chicago, Illinois. Once you learn the freeways (let's see the Ike, the Kennedy, the Stevenson, the Tri-State, the Dan Ryan, ...) Chicago is a piece of cake. My kind a town.
The guy on the radio asked if we could guess which city ranked number one as the worst city in America to drive in, and I blurted it out before he could even finish the question. Yep, that's right, hands-down, the worst city in America to drive in is good 'ol Boston Massachusetts. Of course I didn't need a survey to tell me that. No, I've driven cross-country at least nine or ten times (did I tell you I hate to fly) and across Canada twice, and no city I've ever been through - not Seattle , not Washington DC, not even the big apple even comes close to Boston in terms of nightmare places to drive. In fact Boston is unique in that it is the only place I've ever driven where you can get totally lost even with map in hand.
I still remember the first time I drove Boston about 15 or 20 years ago. I flew into Logan airport planning to rent a car and drive to my hotel in Cambridge, Mass. On the map this looked like a fairly simple procedure. Just exit the airport, get on the freeway, cross the Charles River, and make a left towards Harvard University. So I rented my car, took one of the little maps they had at the counter, got my bearings, headed out of the airport and managed to wind up in Salem, Massachusetts (which, by the way, is no where near Cambridge).
How did I end up in Salem, you may ask. Well, I don't know. I was doing alright at first. I was on the freeway going over the river, and everything was going great until I took the wrong exit off the freeway. Of course I didn't know it was the wrong exit at the time so I just drove and drove until suddenly I looked out the front windshield and saw the Atlantic Ocean lying out in front of me. Hmmm, I said, that doesn't seem right, and sure enough after checking my map I saw that Cambridge shouldn't be next to the ocean but in the completely opposite direction.
Well that's ok, I said, applying my California driving skills to the problem, I'll just head back towards the freeway and start all over again . Unfortunately, before I could find the freeway I had to figure out where the hell I was, and therein lies the first problem with driving around the greater Boston area. You see, in California we have these things called street signs. You generally find them at intersections and they help the driver identify not only the street he is currently travelling, but cross streets as well. They don't have street signs in Massachusetts, however, because apparently all those Harvard and MIT grads out there have got the entire state memorized and don't need them. I need them, though, and so I looked and looked for a sign and couldn't find one, and then I drove a little further and still couldn't find one, and a little further, and so on and so on, until finally I just said the heck with it and turned the car around and headed back in the direction I just came. Which brings me to the second problem with Boston driving.
You see, in California we tend to have very simple intersections. Two roads meet at more or less perpindicular angles and you have the choice of turning right or left or continuing straight ahead. Around Boston, however, things aren't so easy because (1) the roads don't run perpindicular but kind of meander around this way and that and meet at all sorts of crazy angles and (2) a lot of times when roads meet they come from all different directions and just bunch together like pieces of knotted string. So like I said, I turned around and started back the way I came but soon discovered the road looked very different when viewed from the opposite direction, and sure enough it wasn't long before I came to one of these seven-way intersections where I had the choice of going kind of down and to the right, or kind of up and to the right, or straight ahead, or kind of straight ahead but a little to the left, or kind of ... well, you get the picture. Oh, and did I mention - no street signs!
So the light was red and I was desperately searching my map for big knotty intersections next to the ocean, but I couldn't find any and didn't have a clue which way I was supposed to go. Suddenly a little bulb went off above my head and I remembered an old children's game - one potato, two potato, three potatoes, four. The light turned green and I said "Ok, that way looks good" and off I drove. Well the road started off ok, I mean it seemed to going in the right direction, but then it started to meander on me and soon I was looking out of my windshield at the Atlantic Ocean again. Only this time I was really lost and didn't have a clue where I was at.
And then I had another brainstorm. I was looking at my map and noticed that if I just followed the ocean north, I should run into an east-west road sooner or later that would take me back to the freeway. It seemed like a brilliant idea at the time, and would have worked except for the third problem I had with driving around Boston. This third one is hard to describe because, you see, we don't have these in California, or anywhere else west of the Appalachians as far as I know. But out in Boston they've got these wonderful little things, little traffic devices they like to call Rotaries. Up in Canada they have them and call them roundabouts, but up until that first trip to Boston I had never run into one before. Little did I know I was about to get an education.
A rotary, for the uninitiated out there, is a little traffic circle that is used to connect intersections together. They were invented in France, I believe, and the most famous one is probably that thing that runs around the Arc de Triomphe in Paris. The idea is simple. Cars enter the rotary and go around in a circle until they reach their destination, at which point they exit the rotary. The cars in the rotary have the right of way and those entering the rotary yield to the traffic in the rotary until it safe to enter. That's the theory, anyways, and after all what could be simpler. My experience, however, was a little different.
First let me say I was lost and didn't know where I was going. Second, I didn't know what a rotary was. And third, it was about 6 o'clock in the evening and the height of rush hour when I entered this one. Now, remember, in theory when you enter the rotary you are supposed to yield to the traffic in the rotary and enter when safe. Well, safe is a relative term, I guess, because when I approached the rotary all I found was total, dog-eat-dog chaos. Cars were racing around in circles, weaving in and out, cutting each other off, leaning on their horns and in no mood to let some newbie from California "enter when safe". To their credit, though, I must say that Massachusetts drivers are an exeptionally patient and understanding lot, and as I sat at the entrance waiting for a chance to enter it seemed the cars lined up behind me went out of their way to be helpful. I remember looking in my rear view mirror at them and seeing their arms sticking out their windows, middle fingers extended up in the air, which seemed incredibly thoughtful to me. It was some type of signal, I thought, sort of the polite Massachusetts way of gesturing "Yes, you may safely proceed now." Ah how fondly I remember all the friends I made that day.
Eventually I got tired of waiting and decided to just say the hell with it, it's not my car, and hit the accelerator and jumped into the fray. I made it into the rotary (although I wouldn't say "safely") and started my little adventure. Soon it became apparent to me that in Massachusetts, at least, yield is strictly an acadamic term, and in reality the car that has the right of way is whatever car you happen to be in at the time. Once I got used to it I was alright. You know, it's a kind of a "kill or be killed" experience. The adrenaline starts flowing, the blood pressure starts rising, and pretty soon I was giving others the old Massachusetts signal just like they had so kindly extended to me. Unfortunately I still didn't know where I was going (did I mention -no signs!) and so I just one potato, two potatoed it out of the rotary and went on my way.
And I never found that east-west road. About a half hour or so later I was in Salem and no, it wasn't Cambridge, it wasn't my hotel, but then Salem is a nice town. Sort of quaint and New Englandy with little sailboats dotting the ocean, and so I stopped by the famous House of Seven Gables and walked around the grounds a while before I got back in my car made my way back to interstate. The interstate took me south and about five hours after landing at Logan I finally managed to make it to my hotel where I parked my car, slept all night, and then made the decision to take the MTA the entire rest of my stay. Thank God for the MTA. It had routes and maps and all I needed to remember was what color train to take.
Just as a postscript, the survey didn't mention the easiest city to drive in but I'd have to say Chicago, Illinois. Once you learn the freeways (let's see the Ike, the Kennedy, the Stevenson, the Tri-State, the Dan Ryan, ...) Chicago is a piece of cake. My kind a town.
Sunday, August 01, 2004
A Fool and His Money
Well I've finally got some time to spend on my blog but don't seem to have anything on my mind today. Sure was a beautiful day, though, and that's the problem right there - I'm in too good a mood to be writing right now. You know, we writers have to be depressed and disillusioned before we can really set pen to paper, but what the heck. At least when there's nothing else to write about I can always take a stab at the financial news. Everyone's got an opinion about money, right? Well I do anyways, and I'm sure I can do just as bad a job of predicting the future as any of these other financial writers/advisors out there. So here goes...
I see a lot of people seem to be worried about the housing market these days. Prices keep going up and a lot of experts keep talking about the housing bubble. They also talk about rising mortgage rates and the increasing number of homeowners with adjustable rate mortgages. Add to that declining incomes, declining prices, sporadic job growth, and high debt-to-equity ratios among homeowners and it's no wonder they've got people worried. To which I say "So what?"
I mean, isn't it clear that if you have rising real estate prices alongside declining incomes then that must mean that homes are undervalued? How else can you have both things at the same time. Think about it. If real estate is overvalued or fairly valued, then declining incomes are going to shrink the pool of potential buyers. But the fact that real estate prices have been increasing (booming, in fact) clearly indicates that housing is still well within the means of most people, even those who have lost jobs or have been forced to take lower paying jobs.
Here in Silicon Valley some 200,000 or so jobs have been lost over the last few years while the median price has climbed around 17% to $599k, and home sales are still brisk. That would indicate to me that you could still see another 10%-15% rise in the median before prices start to approach fair value, and if employment begins to pick up then you might see another 25%-30% rise in the median after that. I'm just making up those numbers, of course, but then this isn't a real financial column anyways.
Anyways, I was talking to someone last week and she told me there was no way that prices could keep rising. She said that people were already overextended and it was just a matter of time before they all were priced out of the market. I admitted she might be right, but I think there were 2 points she was missing. First, here in Silicon Valley there is a housing shortgage, there has always been a housing shortage, there will always be a housing shortage, and that will always be bullish for housing prices. Second, as long as there are lenders there will always be someone coming up with a new scheme to get people buried in debt. I think people are more focused on the monthly payment than the sales price anyways, and if a lender can find some way to come give people an affordable monthly payment then housing prices will continue to rise. I don't know what they'll do, 50 year interest-only adjustable rate mortgages, maybe, but as far as I'm concerned, the housing bubble is a myth. Remember, you heard it here first.
The stock market, on the other hand, is different. By that I don't mean I think it's a bubble, but I do think I hear a bear starting to growl. There was an interesting little article in one of the financial mags today where the author used a word I hadn't heard in 25 years. I don't know if anyone remembers the old "S" word, but back in the '70's we had an economy that somehow managed to combine inflation and recession into something that some clever economist called "stagflation". Now I'm not going to compare economic conditions in 2004 with those of 1974, but it was interesting to note some of the similarities. If you think back, we had just finished a war, we had rising oil prices, we had rising inflation and we had huge deficits, all of which left the stock market flat for many, many years. Of course inflation was much worse back in the '70's than it is now, but the deficits were much smaller as well so it's fair to at least make the comparison.
If I remember correctly, gold was the big investment back then, along with those new fangled things they called money market funds. So, you ask, does that mean we should be dumping all of our stocks and moving back into money market accounts and precious metals? Hmmm, tell you what, you go first. Actually, I have been looking at some bear funds lately, just in case, but I'm an old dyed-in-the-wool Graham-Dodd type and it's not an area I feel comfortable with. Still, you've got to change with the times and if it seems prudent to go short with part of my portfolio, then that's what I'll do. But I wouldn't be suprised to see a little bounce before the end of the year and I don't think I'll do anything drastic before 2005 rolls around anyways. What's that old Chinese curse - "May you live in interesting times"? Seems like when it comes to investing I'm always living in interesting times. I guess that's the draw of it all.
So that's my financial column. I hope you liked it. It's all a bunch of bull, of course, but at least it's well thought out bull. At least I hope so, and maybe next time I have something more interesting to write about.
Well I've finally got some time to spend on my blog but don't seem to have anything on my mind today. Sure was a beautiful day, though, and that's the problem right there - I'm in too good a mood to be writing right now. You know, we writers have to be depressed and disillusioned before we can really set pen to paper, but what the heck. At least when there's nothing else to write about I can always take a stab at the financial news. Everyone's got an opinion about money, right? Well I do anyways, and I'm sure I can do just as bad a job of predicting the future as any of these other financial writers/advisors out there. So here goes...
I see a lot of people seem to be worried about the housing market these days. Prices keep going up and a lot of experts keep talking about the housing bubble. They also talk about rising mortgage rates and the increasing number of homeowners with adjustable rate mortgages. Add to that declining incomes, declining prices, sporadic job growth, and high debt-to-equity ratios among homeowners and it's no wonder they've got people worried. To which I say "So what?"
I mean, isn't it clear that if you have rising real estate prices alongside declining incomes then that must mean that homes are undervalued? How else can you have both things at the same time. Think about it. If real estate is overvalued or fairly valued, then declining incomes are going to shrink the pool of potential buyers. But the fact that real estate prices have been increasing (booming, in fact) clearly indicates that housing is still well within the means of most people, even those who have lost jobs or have been forced to take lower paying jobs.
Here in Silicon Valley some 200,000 or so jobs have been lost over the last few years while the median price has climbed around 17% to $599k, and home sales are still brisk. That would indicate to me that you could still see another 10%-15% rise in the median before prices start to approach fair value, and if employment begins to pick up then you might see another 25%-30% rise in the median after that. I'm just making up those numbers, of course, but then this isn't a real financial column anyways.
Anyways, I was talking to someone last week and she told me there was no way that prices could keep rising. She said that people were already overextended and it was just a matter of time before they all were priced out of the market. I admitted she might be right, but I think there were 2 points she was missing. First, here in Silicon Valley there is a housing shortgage, there has always been a housing shortage, there will always be a housing shortage, and that will always be bullish for housing prices. Second, as long as there are lenders there will always be someone coming up with a new scheme to get people buried in debt. I think people are more focused on the monthly payment than the sales price anyways, and if a lender can find some way to come give people an affordable monthly payment then housing prices will continue to rise. I don't know what they'll do, 50 year interest-only adjustable rate mortgages, maybe, but as far as I'm concerned, the housing bubble is a myth. Remember, you heard it here first.
The stock market, on the other hand, is different. By that I don't mean I think it's a bubble, but I do think I hear a bear starting to growl. There was an interesting little article in one of the financial mags today where the author used a word I hadn't heard in 25 years. I don't know if anyone remembers the old "S" word, but back in the '70's we had an economy that somehow managed to combine inflation and recession into something that some clever economist called "stagflation". Now I'm not going to compare economic conditions in 2004 with those of 1974, but it was interesting to note some of the similarities. If you think back, we had just finished a war, we had rising oil prices, we had rising inflation and we had huge deficits, all of which left the stock market flat for many, many years. Of course inflation was much worse back in the '70's than it is now, but the deficits were much smaller as well so it's fair to at least make the comparison.
If I remember correctly, gold was the big investment back then, along with those new fangled things they called money market funds. So, you ask, does that mean we should be dumping all of our stocks and moving back into money market accounts and precious metals? Hmmm, tell you what, you go first. Actually, I have been looking at some bear funds lately, just in case, but I'm an old dyed-in-the-wool Graham-Dodd type and it's not an area I feel comfortable with. Still, you've got to change with the times and if it seems prudent to go short with part of my portfolio, then that's what I'll do. But I wouldn't be suprised to see a little bounce before the end of the year and I don't think I'll do anything drastic before 2005 rolls around anyways. What's that old Chinese curse - "May you live in interesting times"? Seems like when it comes to investing I'm always living in interesting times. I guess that's the draw of it all.
So that's my financial column. I hope you liked it. It's all a bunch of bull, of course, but at least it's well thought out bull. At least I hope so, and maybe next time I have something more interesting to write about.
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