Sixteen Tons, and What Do You Get

Now I'm no economist, and just to prove the point I want to talk about the housing market. As you know, the Federal Reserve Bank lowered both the federal funds rate and the discount rate by 1/2 a percentage point today (that would be 50 basis points for all of you economic obscurists out there), and Wall Street went bonkers. All the major indexes were up well over 2%, and people were dancing and cheering like it was 2003. I'll admit I have a dollar or two invested myself and was feeling pretty good as well.

But what I don't get, and by the way the reason I'll never be an economist, is why this is such good news for the economy - particularly for the housing market. Yeah I understand about lower mortgage rates (which I was always told were more closely tied to Treasury rates than the fed funds rate), and I understand that lower interest rates makes it easier to borrow and buy those big ticket items, but so what?

Let's face it, the reason we got into that subprime mess to begin with was that people couldn't afford these houses they were buying, even way back in the days when the fed funds rate was down around 1%. So what's so different this time around? The growing disparity between rich and poor is still with us, and even most economists concede that for the past decade or so real wages have actually been in decline. CEO pay is up - way up, but the average worker has been losing ground and real estate prices have been going straight up.

So it seems to me that unless you're one of those people shopping for a summer estate on Martha's Vineyard, it's still the lenders job to find a way to get the average buyer into a home he or she can't afford. That means looser standards, creative lending, and yes, lower interest rates. However, lowering rates while simultaneously tightening standards just looks like a wash to me.

But then I'm no economist.

Anyways, Countrywide announced today that they were getting out of the subprime business, while the interest rate cut sent the financial and housing stocks way up. Whew, I guess that means the housing "crisis" is over. Not that I'm upset about that, mind you. Not in the least. I'll take a 300 point gain in the Dow any day, and I'm not above doing a little dancing in aisles myself. In fact, I'm feeling so good that I thought I might just head down to the men's room at the local airport to see if there were any parties going on. Maybe do a little toe-tapping, if you know what I mean.

Meanwhile, let's just see what happens with housing. If nothing else, the rate cut should be good for the home equity loan market, that is if anyone has any equity left in their homes (and there are any home equity lenders still in business). Other than that, I don't what any of this means except that health care costs keep rising, oil prices keep climbing, budgets keep stretching, and paychecks are getting thinner and thinner.

The Lost Cause

This is going to be the big week when Gen. Petraeus finally gives his report to Congress, not that anyone is expecting any big surprises. I think most people already have the gist of what he's gonna say. In fact, I was reading somewhere that somebody took a poll somewhere and found that a majority of Americans think that Petraeus is not being truthful about the situation in Iraq - and he hasn't even finished his report yet. Geez, you'd think people would at least let the guy open his mouth before they start calling him a liar.

But that's not how it works, and it all fits in with a phenomenon that I call the "liar, liar, pants on fire" syndrome. You see, through careful research and observation I've come to the conclusion that it's always easier to call someone a liar than it is to allow that he might be telling the truth. The reasons are simple. So long as you call someone a liar then that puts the onus on him to prove he's telling the truth. He's the one who is called to action, not me. I only have to stand and point.

On the other hand, if someone tells me something and I accept it as true, then the situation is reversed. He's done his job and now I am called to action. For example, if someone comes up to me and tells me my house is on fire and I dismiss him as a liar, then it's up to him to prove he's telling the truth. However, if someone comes up to me and says "look, isn't that your house on fire?", and I see that my house is indeed on fire, then suddenly it's me who has to get off my lazy butt and do something about it.

Does that make sense? Maybe I didn't explain it as well as I should, but I think the basis for 90% of all cynicism in any given population can be directly linked to the "liar, liar, pants on fire" syndrome. It's just so much easier for us lazy humans to dismiss something as a lie and feel ourselves astute than it is to act on uncomfortable truths. Not that I know what the General is going to say, but the sooner we can agree it's all lies then the sooner we can get back to what we were doing before we were so rudely interrupted.

Don't you agree?

Anyways, I don't think there's anything that Petraeus could say that would assuage the Copperheads, er Democrats. At least not when there is an election so close at hand. You make a little progress in Anbar and Baghdad and they just complain that you haven't ended the violence in all of Iraq. You end the violence in all of Iraq and they complain that you haven't ended the violence in Afghanistan. You end the violence in all of Iraq and Afghanistan and they complain that you haven't brought peace to the Middle East. You end the violence in all of Iraq and Afghanistan and bring peace to the Middle East and they complain that you haven't brought about total world peace. You end the ... you get the idea.

Personally I think what the General should do is occupy Savannah. I mean it worked before, didn't it? Why not give it a try. Just have Petraeus send a telegram presenting the City of Savannah as a Christmas gift to the President, and watch the tide of public opinion turn. Of course Petraeus seems more of a diplomat that General Sherman was, and Dubya is certainly no Abraham Lincoln, but what this Iraq War needs is a identifiable symbol of success. Without that, the American people are just going to keep on thinking that the politicians and generals are a bunch of liars.

And speaking of the Democrats, did you see that little fundraiser that Oprah Winfrey gave for Barak Obama the other night. Oh you should have seen it. Here we had the Democrats, the "green" party, then environmentally conscious anti-global warmimists, making their way into a car park to be bussed up the road to Oprah's exclusive Montecito Estate, and among these earnest and committed people not a Prius or Civic or any other fuel efficient vehicle in sight - just block after block of idling limousines and birds falling dead out of the sky from the fumes.

I guess that's all a part of what you could call the "it's easier for rich people to make movies about the world's problems than to sacrifice any of their comforts to actually do something about them" syndrome. Meanwhile, here's crusty old me riding my GZ to work each day (70 mpg), while these Hollywood hypocrites pollute the skies and debauch themselves with money, sex and drugs.

Damn, what am I doing wrong?

I Don't Want a Pickle, I Just Wanna Ride My Motorsickle

Wow. Over the last two months I've made a grand total of two posts. Not that the internet can't go on without me, but I really should try to do better than that, don't you think? My New Year's resolution this year was to make a blog post each and every day no matter what, but I guess that only proves the futility of resolving your way to better personhood.

Anyways, the weather has been so nice out here this summer that I just haven't had the time for much computer time. As I've said before, I'm not the kind of person that likes to sit inside and tap on a keyboard all day, especially when the sun is out and there's a nice cool breeze blowing in off the bay. Nope, sitting in front of a monitor may be okay for those other pasty-faced blogger geeks out there, but I'd rather go for a hike or a bike ride or even a trip out to the coast instead.

So that's my excuse. Indian summer is starting to settle in so I thought that as long as the weather is heating up I might as well enjoy this air conditioning and catch up on some blogging (hint for all of you out-of-towners: the hottest days around the bay usually start sometime after Labor Day and continue on until about the middle of October. That's when the fog disappears and the Santa Ana's pick up and our fire season reaches its most dangerous stages. The great Oakland fire was an October fire, as those of us who live around here remember all too well) .

For my first topic of this new blogging season I'd like to talk a little about motorcycling. You see, as you get older you start to think about things - lots of things; things you've done, mistakes you've made, and things you'd always meant to do but never got around to actually doing. Back in High School most of my friends rode motorcycles, but I never had the cash to buy one of my own. Other than a very occasional ride on one of their bikes, a motorcycle of my own was beyond my means and just sort of fell onto my "someday" list.

Fast forward a few decades later, and my brother mentioned to me that he had signed up for a Motorcycle Safety Foundation Beginning Rider Course that, unfortunately, had been canceled due to noise complaints from the neighbors. I asked him to let me know if he ever decided to sign up for another class, and the next thing you know it's 7:00 in the morning and we're standing in the parking lot of the local community college getting ready to gear up for our lessons.

If you don't know about the MSF or the BRC then I should explain that it's a class open to both raw beginners and experienced riders that is predicated on the belief that a lot of motorcyclists you see out on our public roads don't know what the hell they're doing. These are people that usually begin by asking a friend or family member to teach them how to ride, and then pick up an enthusiast magazine and drool over the latest high-revin' zero-to-sixty in 3 second pocket rocket, and then go down to the local dealership and buy themselves "one of those". That's the way many motorcyclists you see have learned to ride provided, of course, that they survived the trip back from the dealership. Sound familiar? Hmmm, maybe you have a young one of those living in your upstairs bedroom?

Which brings up this point: Is the "pro" rider the one you see weaving his way in and out of traffic at 90 mph, or is it the one who pays attention to his surroundings and rides within his ability level, having practiced techniques such as maximum braking, proper turning, swerving and low speed maneuvering? If you're under the age of 30, then I guess you'd say the "pro" rider is the one going 90, but if you're over 30 then you probably think the MSF BRC might not be such a bad idea.

The BRC always sounded like a good idea to me, so I took the course and passed it. Righ now I'm just waiting for them to send me my paperwork and then I'll be headed off to the DMV to get my M1 license (in California, passing the MSF BRC means you don't have to take the motorcycle driving test). In the meantime, I've got my permit and I'm happily riding my new motorcycle. That's a picture of me over on the left (handsome devil, ain't I?)

I read somewhere that you shouldn't think of your first motorcycle as your "dream" motorcycle, but rather you should think of it as your trainer. It's the bike that hopefully you'll be making all your beginner mistakes on. With that in mind, the best starter bikes are typically light, cheap and underpowered. Now the dealer won't tell you that. The dealer is going to tell you that with a 1800 cc engine and a dry weight of only 860 pounds, that $25k Honda Goldwing is the perfect bike for a beginner, or that Suzuki Hayabusa with a top speed of 190 mph and a 9 second quarter mile time is just the kind of bike to get started on and one you're not likely to outgrow in a couple of months. Well, I'm no fool. I'm a MSF BRC graduate so you can't oversell me like you do all the other noobs that walk in the door.

So what did I buy instead? Well, don't laugh - I mean it. My rider coach told me that you can learn on any bike, but you'll learn a lot faster if you start on a small bike and move up to something bigger, and since I trust my rider coach a lot more than I do some high commission motorcycle salesman I bought a Suzuki GZ250 - probably the safest and most boring motorcycle on the road today. Top speed? Are you kidding? Quarter mile times? You could get there faster on roller skates.

But is it fun? Damn, if it didn't make my butt so sore I'd ride the thing all day. Besides, it has all the features a beginner needs. Like all cruisers it sits low to the ground with a low center of gravity making it easy and stable to ride. It has a single cylinder engine making it very easy to maintain. It's fast enough to get around town, but not fast enough to get a beginner into too much trouble. It handles very predictably and you'd have to try really hard to dump the clutch and get the front tire in the air. And best of all, it doesn't look like a beginner bike. Fact is, I've gotten more than a few admiring looks while straddling my little GZ, and since I know nobody's gonna be looking at me then I have to conclude that others find it quite a looker too.

I also bought around $600.00 worth of gear (those helmets can get expensive) and a book considered to be the Bible of motorcycle riding called Proficient Motorcycling by David L. Hough. If you've taken the BRC then I think you'll find it an excellent resource for building on some of the fundamental concepts you've learned. In fact, David L. Hough was one of the people responsible for developing the coursework in the MSF program, and you can tell by reading the book that this guy knows his stuff. It's just a matter of absorbing it and applying it to your everyday riding habits.

And did I mention the GZ gets between 70-80 mpg? Well, it does. Today I pulled into a gas station next to a guy filling his Chevy Silverado and it was great. Five bucks and a gallon and half of gas and I was on my way, while that guy was still sitting there watching the the numbers spinning higher and higher. Ah, the joy of motorcycling.