It's The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year

Hello there. Hope everything's going well with you. It's been pretty uneventful around here lately - kind of quiet really. You know, I've just been running errands, doing a little  shopping, and that sort of thing, and, uh, oh yeah, getting laid off for Christmas.. Other than that though....

Well, technically speaking, I didn't get laid off. What happened is that I came into work last Thursday, poured a cup of coffee, sat down at my desk, had a good yawn and a belly scratch, and then found out that the company announced we were going to shut down.

"Hey, look, no big deal but I just thought you'd like to know that as of 5:00 o'clock tonight we're all going to out of job".

"Ok, thanks. I appreciate your mentioning it. Hey, did you see the game last night?"

Well, it was sort of like that. You see, prior to the announcement there wasn't even the slightest hint that anything was wrong. Maybe it was naivety on my part or maybe I just wasn't paying attention, but the offhandedness of the shutdown was really weird. It was like the bosses just got up that morning and decided "You know, instead of our usual 18 holes, why don't we just close down the company instead."

Ho-Ho-Ho and a Merry Christmas.

Not that I'm feeling sorry for myself, mind you. Actually, I'm pretty lucky in that I'm a pessimist by nature and forever preparing for the worst. That means I've got no debts and some money in the bank, and with no dependents to take care of  I won't be going hungry anytime soon. Unfortunately, that's not true for everybody that lost their job last Thursday, especially the ones with mortgages to pay and young families to clothe and feed. I don't suppose anyone feels too good about that, but you gotta be prepared for the worst, you know?  These days Christmas layoffs seem to have become almost an annual tradition in the corporate world, and, after all, what better way to reward your employees than with a great big lump of coal for the Yuletide.

Yeah, ho-ho-ho indeed

So, anyway, it was strange being unemployed. I started going over it in my mind and the nearest I can figure is that I've been employed continuously since I was 19 years old, and for all those years not a day has gone by that I didn't know that a next paycheck coming. Then just like that, I found myself hung out to dry and the next paycheck I always counted on and planned my future around wasn't there anymore. Let me tell you. It's a weird, disorientating feeling. I didn't know whether to panic or just pretend it was all a bad dream.

And if all that wasn't bad enough, someone, who apparently subscribes to the theory that it is best to kick people when they're down, decided to prowl my neighborhood last Friday night and  break into my truck. As if I wasn't feeling bummed out enough already about being out of a job, I walked out to the truck on Saturday morning and found the doors wide open, the little change compartment completely emptied and the rest of the interior contents thrown into a big messy pile on the seats. Luckily it's an old truck and there wasn't that much change inside, and they probably would have done me a favor if they would have just stolen the entire truck, but it was just the sort of salt I didn't need rubbed into my wounds at that particular moment, you know what I mean?

So that was my uneventful week. I certainly hope yours was better. The good news is that I'm starting a new job in a few days and hopefully this next one will go a little better than the last. Being the pessimist I am, however, I'm not expecting all my troubles to be behind me. Not after the week I've just been through, and you can rest assured that I'll be squeezing my dollars pretty tight in the days ahead. I'm sorry to disappoint you Wall Street, but  my contribution to the greater economic good this Christmas season is likely to be somewhat muted, to say the least.

Which means there must be some lesson in all this. Well yes, there is, and for that let us turn now to that great folk economist Bob Dylan who once reminded us "Don't follow leaders, and watch the parking meters." 

And have a Happy Holiday .

The Quiet Man

"You know what the problem is, doc? The problem is that nothing has any value anymore. It's all just dollars and cents and how much someone will pay for something. Nothing has any real worth."

"How about family? Friends? They have worth, don't they?"

"Sure, but that's not what I mean. It's like...you know what happened? Rupert Murdoch bought Dow Jones. That's what I mean. It's all about money. It's not about prestige or importance. It's all about cheapening the product for the mass market and making a buck. I mean Rupert Murdoch, the world's biggest media pimp, bought Dow Jones!"

"Well, you may be jumping to conclusions here."

"Oh yeah, you just wait and see. Mark my word. Pretty soon they'll be putting Page 3 girls in the Wall Street Journal."

"I doubt that, and anyway, if that's what the public wants then who are you to sit and judge."

"The aesthetic is gone, doc. Whatever sells is right, and the cruder the better."

"Again, who are you to sit and judge? Did it ever occur to you that maybe you're tastes might just be different from someone else's? That doesn't make a thing right or wrong."

"Well, all I can say is that there is more to beauty than botox and a boob job. You know what the poet said, 'Truth is beauty, and beauty truth. That's all ye know on earth and all ye need to know."

"And what is truth, then? How do you know the truth isn't  botox and a boob job?"

"I know that beauty isn't something you can buy, like a can of beans."

"Then you don't know much about women. There may be more illusion than you realize."

"Beauty, real beauty, is like a...a...I don't know. It's like a connection or something. You see someone and you just feel connected somehow, and that's all you see, you know what I mean. It's got nothing to do with hair, or makeup, or any of that. I mean, sure, that has something to do with it, but without that connection it's all just fakery. It's like if you feel that connection, then it's beautiful. And it doesn't have to be a girl. It can be a painting, or a car, or even a refrigerator. If that connection is there, then it's beautiful. Page 3 girls are just hormonal reactions. You can call them beautiful, but it's not the same thing."

"Ok, I'm not going to argue with you. So what else is going on? Have you started writing that opera yet?"

"Oh, the opera. Yeah, well I'm working on that."

"How far have you gotten?"

"Let's just say I'm still in the idea stage. Anyway, it's probably too late for me to start writing an opera now. Maybe if I was a little younger..."

"Truth is, you're the world's greatest procrastinator. Now that's what the truth is."

"Yeah, well, I guess I've lost my inspiration. You know I've been trying to do what you told me. I'm trying to live more in the real world instead having my head in the clouds all the time, but you know the real world is kind of boring. At least it is to me. Without my fantasies I just don't feel inspired to write. It's almost like I don't feel anything anymore."

"I didn't tell you to give up your fantasies, I just want you to focus more on separating the real from the imaginary. I know you know the difference, now you just need to work on not letting your imagination get away with you. We both know what kind of trouble that can get you into."

"..."

"How are you doing socially? Are you getting out more like I asked you to?"

"I bought a motorcycle."

"And?"

"I bought a motorcycle because I can get on the thing and ride and not have to deal with anybody except the other drivers on the road. It's like being in my own little world, and I like that."

"I see. That's not exactly what I ..."

"You see doc, I don't like crowds of people. I just like to do my own thing and not have to bother anybody else. Yeah, ok, I'm a dreamer and I know that's not healthy but it's who I am, and, frankly, at this point in my life I'm not much interested in changing."

"Yes, but that can lead to problems. You know that."

"What can I say? It's my bliss. I hear what you're saying, but if I could just ride my bike and write my opera, I'd die a happy man."

"Really?"

"At least I'd die happier than if I had to sit around at people's parties  making small talk for the rest of my life. That just ain't me, doc."

"Well, I appreciate your honesty but I'm afraid you're..."

"Excuse me. I think my half-hour is up."

"Yes, you're right. That'll have to do for today. Make an appointment on the way out, and try to get out more, will you?"

"Sure. I'll try. You know this would make a great opera."

Nanook's Got A New Ride

I noticed that the ride into work was a little cold this morning, so I shouldn't have been surprised when I took off my helmet and found ice crystals riming the edges of my face shield." No, that can't be" No, considering that the temperature was a chilly 35 degrees when I left home, and then factoring in the wind chill, it really shouldn't have come as much of a surprise, but it did.

So what is it that leads brave men to face such dangers, you may ask. Well, let me try to answer that. I believe it's either one of two things, or maybe a little of both. First, when riding a motorcycle you're usually sitting directly over the engine. That means the vibrations, although counterbalanced and dampened, often work their way through the handlebars, footpegs and seat to the rider. It would only seem natural to me, then, that more than a few neurons would shake loose in the process. Thus, such a marked decrease in IQ combined with the rapid onset of hypothermia would naturally explain why an otherwise normal adult would set out on a winter morning and choose a bone-chilling ride on a a bike over a  warm cozy automobile.

The second factor may be that bikers are just born stupid. I am coming to that conclusion, and, in fact,  what we may be dealing with here are stupid people with hypothermia and loose neurons choosing to ride their bikes in sub-freezing weather because they don't know any better. Yes that would explain a lot.

Before I go any further let me just say that I wasn't the only biker out there this morning. I may be brain impaired, but certainly not without my peers. In fact I counted at least a half dozen other brave souls out on the road this morning, and if they give out medals for this sort of thing, then be it known that medals were earned today.

Of course, the other bikers I passed seemed much better equipped than I to deal with the cold. At the very least they all had windshields to keep the wind off of them, and a couple were riding Honda Gold Wings fully loaded with fairings and heated seats and all that other stuff which seems so silly in the summer and so practical in the winter. I should note that what I didn't see this morning were any badasses riding Harleys wearing nothing more than a t-shirt and a brain bucket on their heads for protection. Sure, they may be tough, but it's one thing to scraping bugs off your teeth in the summer and another to be picking snowballs out of your nose in the winter. Even toughness has it's limits.

But enough of that. After all, who cares?  I bet you weren't sitting on a bike freezing your tush off this morning. You're more sensible than that so let's see what else there is to talk about tonight? Hmmm....Hmmm...I know. I could talk about maniacs with guns going on shooting sprees, but which maniac should I talk about? Would that be this week's maniac with a gun or last week's maniac with a gun? It all gets to be so cliché after a while. Or, I know, I could talk about Barry Bonds. Oh, what for?  That's already old news. Let me just say this. Getting a San Francisco jury to convict Barry Bonds of perjury is about as likely as getting a Chicago jury to convict Michael Jordan or a New York jury to convict Babe Ruth. In other words, not very likely, and if I were one of you Barry Bonds haters out there (actually, I am), I wouldn't get my hopes up.

Tell you what, let's just call it a night and hopefully I'll something better to write about tomorrow. In the meantime, if you happen to be driving around tomorrow morning and see me out on the road, I'd appreciate it if you got out your ice pick and knocked a few of the icicles off my helmet. You might also want to shake me around a bit  just to be sure I haven't lapsed into a coma. Neighbor helping neighbors, that's what it's all about. 

Soul Music?

Although I'm not a geek, I've got to admit that I'm a sucker for a cool new gadget. I'm also a sucker for good music, so what better union of two disparate interests than a cool new gadget that plays music. No, I'm not talking about a new MP3 player, I'm talking about a gadget that actually plays music- in this case the violin.

Now, you know I love violin music, but has Toyota gone a little too far with this little contraption. Check it out and see what you think.

 

 

 

Violin Robot

 

Hmmm, I don't know. Could use a little more vibrato, don't you think. Well, maybe the violin isn't a good choice of instrument for a robot. A guitar would be better. Just teach it three chords and turn up the volume and it could probably rock out better than 90% of the bands out there nowdays. That would just be my opinion, of course.

Anyway, speaking of the violin, here's a new CD I got a couple of weeks ago. Unfortunately, instead of a robot this one was made by a real, living, breathing human being by the name Lisa Batiashvili.A bit of a disappointment to all the geeks out there, but not a fatal flaw.

Batiashvili has been getting a lot of critical notice lately,and I'd never heard her play so I ordered her latest CD. This is her second release in the U.S. and it features the Sibelius and Lindberg Violin Concertos. After reading all the press she's been getting I have to tell you I had high expectations for this one. One critic even said the young violinist was already on a par with current violin stars such as Hilary Hahn.

Well, Mr. Critic, not quite.

Batiashvili can certainly play, and she is not just another one of the photogenic pretenders making the rounds these days. She's got some chops, but a lot of violinist's have chops. That in and of itself isn't gonna catapult you up to the elite ranks. No, you need more than chops and what Batiashvili lacks, at least in her Sibelius Violin Concerto, is purpose.she plays the piece as though she is overly concerned with how it's supposed to sound or how it's expected to be played, rather than with how she feels the piece and how she wants to interpret it for her audience.

At times she seems overdramatic, then hesitant, then wooden, only to fly wildly off the deep end. It's a very disjointed effort, and certainly not one that belongs among the best of the great violinists. It seems painfully obvious that Batiashvili needs to let go of her self-consciousness and find her own voice, and then she needs somehow to develop the  confidence to trust her own gut instincts and play from the heart. As it stands now, this Sibelius, is a bit of a mess.

Also included on the CD is a wonderful concerto by the contemporary Finnish composer Magnus Lindberg. I've never heard it before and what a amazing piece of music it is, and played exceptionally well by young Batiashvili. I can hardly describe it, except to say that it explodes with sound, including one point in the piece where Batiashvili's violin makes these weird sounds that reminded me of  a plastic slide whistle. It's really very cool and what I'd call a virtuoso or show piece, but then I'm not a violinist so what do I know. I loved it though, and maybe it's this type of playing that has earned Batiashvili her renown in certain critical circles.

However, if you buy the CD you're probably going to buy it for the Sibelius, and that would be a mistake. Far better to wait until 2008 when we finally get the Sibelius Violin Concerto CD  we've all been waiting for, and from a violinist who truly merits her critical acclaim. Until then, I guess the Batiashvili will have to do.

So there you go. A little geek news, a little music news - not too bad for a rainy night in California. Think I'll go pick up my axe and do a little picking now, You don't mind if I start singing, do you. 

Rainy night in Georgia, Oh, it's a rainy night in Georgia, I believe it's raining all over the world...

I Wasn't Born To Follow

"Ladies and gentlemen, we are making history here tonight. A bipartisan presidential debate before the first primary has even been held has never occurred before in American presidential politics. But that's precisely what we propose to bring you tonight. On this stage we will be presenting candidates from both of the major parties to debate the issues of the day. It is our hope that by doing so we will offer the voters watching at home a broad perspective of the differences not only within each party, but within the broader context of American society as well, So candidates, if you're ready, let us begin.

"My first question goes to you Senator Clinton. Everyday Americans turn on their TV's and see yet more carnage, more sectarian violence, more lawlessness, and more innocent victims caught in the crossfire. If elected President, how will you bring an end to this bloodshed and restore peace and civility?"

"Thank you Mr. Moderator, I'm glad you asked that question. I too am troubled by what I see happening in Iraq and let me..."

"Iraq?"

"Yes, you were asking me about Iraq."

"Actually I was talking about West Oakland."

"Oh, I misunderstood. Well, West Oakland and some of our other urban areas are certainly in trouble, and let me assure you that as President I am committed to taking on this problem and remaining strong in my conviction that this sort of criminal behavior is wrong and must be dealt with on every level - local, state and national. We cannot let these criminal gangs take over our streets and terrorize our citizens, and I will see to it that our brave men and women in law enforcement receive the resources they need to combat these thugs. But let us not deceive ourselves into believing that law enforcement is in itself enough to accomplish the task. It will also take the involvement of community groups, educators, business leaders and all the rest of us to help our young people turn away from crime and to live productive live. To make that happen it will take the kind of vigorous leadership that I have shown in the past to make sure the job gets done, and in a Clinton presidency, the job will get done."

"Thank you Senator Clinton. Mayor Giuliani, your thoughts?"

"Unlike most of the other candidates on this stage, I have actual experience dealing with the kinds of problems your seeing in West Oakland and Richmond and South Philly. I was Mayor of New York and I've been there. How do we deal with crime in our inner cities? We don't tolerate it, it's as simple as that. Zero tolerance is the only way for cities to take back the streets, and as President it will be my first priority to hire 100,000 new police officers and make sure our cities have the resources available to do the job. An I can tell you what we don't need. What we don't need is a lot of interference from Washington or a bunch of bean counter bureacrats. We'll spend the money, we'll hire the officers, we'll build the courts and jails and we'll get these thugs off the streets. That's my promise to the American people. We did it in New York, and we can do it in Oakland. All we need is the will and determination to get the job done."

"Thank you Mayor Giuliani. How about you, Senator Obama. Is law enforcement the answer?"

"No it's not the answer and let me tell you why. What we need is a new approach. The old way of doing things simply hasn't worked. We've tried law enforcement in the past and yet the street gang problem still exists. We've involved the community, we've talked to business leaders, we've tried to improve our schools, and those things are important, but the same old way of doing things that Senator Clinton advocates just won't work anymore. We need to reach out to our young people, get them involved in the solution. These are their neighborhoods too. We should listen to what they have to say. Do they need jobs? Well ok, let's provide them with the education and skills they need so they can go out and get those jobs. Do they need a stable home environment? Ok, let's get some counselors in there and intervene in some of these dysfunctional families. This has to be a two-way street. As President I can't just dictate solutions to our young people. I need to hear from them, and we need to get the parents involved as well."

"Governor Romney, we haven't heard from you."

"When I was Governor of Massachusetts it's true I had undocumented workers employed on my property. I can see now that I was wrong, and as the only true conservative in this race let me reassure the voters that I am strongly against this practice."

"Thank you Governor Romney. Yes, Senator Edwards, you had something you wanted to say?"

"Thank you Mr. Moderator. As I listen to the other candidates give you their answers I must say that I'm astonished at the lack of vision shown here on this stage. Law enforcement is not the answer. Building jails is not the answer. The question is what can we do as Americans to combat crime in our inner cities, and the answer is that it is clearly the government's responsibility to see that our citizens are safe and that our youth find a place in our society where they can lead happy, productive lives. As President I will propose legislation that deals directly with problem. That means job training, health care, family crisis intervention, afterschool programs, mentoring...the list goes on and on. There is no reason why any child in America should ever suffer hardship, and I believe it's government's responsibility to see that no child ever does. The first thing I will do as President is withdraw our armed forces from Iraq and use those monies to fund the kind of social programs we need to affect the lives of everyday Americans. We are still the richest country in America, and the real crime is not redistributing some of those riches to our societies most vulnerable citizens. Government can do that, but only with strong Presidential leadership."

"Would that be your approach Senator Thompson?"

"No, and let me tell you why. Crime is not a new problem in America, particularly in our inner cities. What we should be concerned with is containment. Let's be brutally honest here, black communities in America have always been high crime areas, and as long as we can contain it to those areas then I think most Americans will be ok with that. If it starts to go beyond those borders, however, then we've got a problem. I don't know why Americans care more about carnage a half a world away than they do about the carnage just up the freeway, but that's the reality of the situation and we've go to deal with that. Containment is the key strategy here. That is where we should concentrate our resources, because, mark my word, if we don't then this stuff can get out of control."

"Thank you Senator Thompson, and that was a great movie by the way. Congressman Paul, how about a word from you. This is the internet, after all."

"Thank you Mr. Moderator. If there is a crime problem in West Oakland, then I say why is that the government's concern. If I'm not mistaken, the Second Amendment of the Constitution stills grants to each citizen the right to bear arms, and an armed populace is far better than any government solution as far as I'm concerned. As President my first action would be to put an end to all of this wasteful spending and legalize crime. Legalize crime and the crime rate will go down, I guarantee it."

"Ok, Governor Huckabee it's your turn."

"Why are our young people so lost? It's a lack of faith, that's what I say. The Bible is a far more powerful weapon than the Glock 19, but is sadly missing from our society today. I think the President should be more than just a political leader, he should be a moral leader as well. What I want to ask the citizens of Oakland is 'where are the churches in all this. What role does prayer play in the daily lives of your children'.As the only candidate up here who truly represents the values of the Christian Right I think you know where I stand. The problems in Oakland are the same as the problems I see across America. We need to restore faith in our lives and emphasize family values. Only through faith can our young people battle against the forces of evil we see all around us. Yes, we should punish the sinners, but always with a sense of love in our hearts."

"And finally Senator McCain, you get the last word."

"Huh?"

"Senator McCain? Are you awake sir?"

"Yes, I'm sorry. I'm afraid the lateness of the hour has taken it's toll. The important thing to remember is that defeat is not an option. Our young men and women who have fought so bravely deserve better than..."

"Senator McCain, we were talking about Oakland."

"Yes, I understand, but defeat is still not an option. What this country needs is discipline and the courage to see the fight through. And, uh...I forgot what I was going to say."

"That's fine Senator McCain. I want to thank all of you candidates for attending this debate, and I want to especially thank you viewers at home for tuning in and listening so patiently and carefully to their answers, for in the end it's you who will decide the course of this great nation in the year's to come. Think about what you've heard tonight when you step into the voting booth to cast your ballot, and remember democracy depends on an informed and involved electorate. With that I bid you all good night, and ask you to please stay tuned for the network premiere of 'Laundering With The Stars' immediately following this broadcast. Tonight four celebrities air their dirty laundry and reveal the secrets hidden in some of their most intimate apparel. What's hiding in your clothes hamper? That's 'Laundering With The Stars' immediately following most of these --- stations. From the Silicon Valley, this has been the Bipartisan Presidential Debate. Thank you all, and good-night."

Dead Cat Offers His Expert Opinion

"Hello everybody. Welcome to Weekly Business Roundup. I'm Katia Pond. On the show this week we'll be talking about the rapidly declining housing market with my special guest - billionaire investor, political insider, and all around raconteur Tony Myers, author of the wildly popular Dead Cat On A Mountain blog. Has the housing bubble burst, and how much further can prices fall? Find out what my guest thinks, and get his views on what's to come in the year ahead. But first, let's find out what happened this week on Wall Street. As you can see, first the market was way up, then it was way down, then it went way up again, then the bottom fell out, and finally we took a little breather on Friday. For the week the Dow was unchanged, while the Nasdaq ended up in the bathroom feeling a little nauseous. Why all the volatility? Many believe the housing market's to blame, so please welcome my guest Tony Myers and find out what he thinks lies behind the market's malaise. Tony Myers, welcome."

"Thanks Katia. Good to be here."

"So what about this housing market? Foreclosures are up, credit is tight, and now Secretary Paulson is talking about freezing interest rates. Are we headed for a recession?"

"I'm afraid it's much worse than that, Katia. Back at the blog I've been looking over the historical data and running the numbers and I believe that not only are we looking at a recession,  but it's becoming clearer and clearer to me that sometime next year we're all going to die."

"Die?"

"Yes, that's right."

"Well, that's a pretty strong statement. I mean, well, yeah, sure, we're all going to die someday..."

"No, next year."

"Next year? What are you basing that on?"

"A lot of things. For example, have you ever heard of Lester Ziffren?"

"No, I can't say I have."

"Well, Lester Ziffren died last week."

"I'm sorry to hear that but..."

"Lester Ziffren was the reporter who broke the story about the start of hostilities in the Spanish Civil War. What do you think of that?"

"I'm not sure I follow your point (but then I've read your blog so that's hardly surprising)."

"Outside of University History Departments, how many Americans do you think have ever heard of the Spanish Civil War?"

"Well I have. That was in Pan's Labyrinth, wasn't it?"

"Ok, outside of Pan's Labyrinth what do you know about the Spanish Civil War?"

"Um, let's see. There was Teddy Roosevelt and the charge up San Juan Hill, right?"

"No, that wasn't the Spanish Civil War, that was the Spanish-American War...At least I think that was the Spanish-American War. Wasn't it?"

"Aha, so even you don't know for sure."

"My point is this. Most Americans don't have a clue about the Spanish Civil War, but if you ask them the name of Paris Hilton's dog..."

"You mean Tinkerbell?"

"That's what I'm saying. Any society that knows more about some clueless TV celebrity than they do about the rise of fascism in the 20th century deserves to die."

"Oh, yeah, good point (?). I'd like to return to the housing market for a moment if I could. You're from the Bay Area, aren't you?"

"Yes that's right."

"Are you seeing the same trends in Northern California as we are seeing in the rest of the country?"

"That's an interesting point, Katia. No, we're not seeing the same trends. We've definitely seen a slowdown in sales, particularly in the entry-level sub-$700,000 market, but the multimillion dollar end of the market is still managing to hold together, although sales are hardly brisk. So far that as kept the median price fairly stable, but as the lower end becomes more distressed we could see that start to change."

"So multimillion dollar homes are still selling."

"Yes, so far. Understand, of course, that in the Silicon Valley no one is very impressed by a million dollar price tag, not when employment is strong and wages remain good. You know, if you tell someone in the Silicon Valley that you made $150,000 last year, rather than be impressed they're more likely to say something like 'Oh, don't worry. I'm sure things will start to pick up'. "

"I see. So being from the Silicon Valley you're actually living in some kind of bubble and really have no clue about  what's going on in the rest of the country, do you?"

"Look Katia, the bottom line is this. As long as credit remains tight and mortgage lenders aren't wiling to lend, it's a no-brainer that housing is going to suffer. And until that changes, the housing market will continue to limp along. What housing needs is more first-time buyers to grease the wheels and keep the engine turning , and as long as there is nobody out there willing to lend to them then there's nothing to drive up prices. That means sellers are either going to have to sit on their properties for a while, or use some creative means like seller carry-back loans to sell their houses. It's as simple as that and everybody knows it. There's no magic bullet for housing. You need money to buy a house, and outside of the Silicon Valley and a few other upper class enclaves, most people don't have that kind of cash laying around."

"So does that mean falling prices?"

"Falling prices make for nervous lenders more unwilling than ever to make new loans. That leads to even lower prices and so on and so on and so on. That's not a good scenario and I think we'll see some kind of intervention before things get out of control"

"Like what? Could we be looking at a government bailout?"

"Well the current Congress has decided in it's wisdom to put even more restrictions on new loans as a way to punish lenders. It doesn't make much sense to me, but then, these are democrats. They've even put a provision in the new law that outlaws 'predatory lending', whatever that's supposed to mean. I'm afraid what it's going to wind up meaning is that everyone who falls behind on their mortgage will now be able to hire a lawyer and sue their lender for 'predatory lending'. Tell me that won't have a chilling effect on the housing market."

"So you don't expect the government to come to the rescue of these distressed homeowners?"

"This isn't a job for the government. By intervention I mean market intervention. What's probably going to happen is that some of these lenders are going to fail, and others will be bought up or merged, and sooner or later the balance sheets will improve and things will start getting back to normal. After all, lenders need to make loans in order to make money. In the interim, though, residential real estate is in for some rough times."

"How long do you think it will take?"

"More than a year, I suppose, and by that time we'll all be dead."

"And on that cheerful note we'll have to draw this interview to a close. I want to thank my guest Tony Myers, and please be sure to join us next week when my guest will be Paris Hilton who has just returned from Africa and will be sharing her insights on oil and the energy markets. Until then, I'm Katia Pond. Have a great week everybody."

Joyeux Noël - A Christmas Card

Has it been a year already? Geez, time just flies on by and then all of a sudden it's time for another depressing Christmas. Seems like only yesterday...

No, that's not right.  I've got to quit being so negative. I've got to be of good cheer and find the "true meaning of Christmas" and all that. Except that after reaching a certain age I have to wonder what's the "true meaning of Christmas" anyway. Christmas is Christmas. You eat, you open some presents, you eat some more, you take a nap, you eat some more, you go home, and the next day you go back to work again.

Well, that's how Christmas seems to me. For most normal folks, I suppose, the "true meaning of Christmas" is something different. It's making plans and decorating the house and hitting the mall to burn up what's left of their available credit and, if everything comes together as planned,  it's having it all come together for a perfect "Christmas with the family." That's how it is on TV anyway, and in the real world I guess most people just try to do the best they can. I doubt anyone's Christmas is as perfect as the ones on TV, though. Have you seen the commercial where the husband takes the wife outside and surprises her with a new Mercedes sitting in the driveway. Was that like your Christmas? Seems to me if you can afford to buy your wife a new Mercedes then you're probably too busy counting your money to spend much time worrying about the "true meaning of Christmas", but then what do I know.

Anyways, I don't want anything for Christmas this year, and that's kind of depressing. I mean if you're not anticipating a new bike or a race car set, then Christmas is pretty much like any other day, isn't it? Well, except for the extra pounds you'll have to lose come the New Year. Sure, there's the joy of perfunctory giving, but that has more to do  with  expectation than spontaneous feelings of peace on earth and goodwill to men if you ask me. In "the true meaning of Christmas" giving should be earnest and heartfelt, not a new toaster. Damn, I must be getting old.

At this point, all I really want for Christmas are the things I can't have. Like a younger body, for instance, or the woman of my dreams. Of course, the reality is that if I had a younger body I'd just abuse it, and if I had the woman of my dreams she'd always remain beyond my grasp. That's why dreams should just stay dreams and not be allowed to intrude on life's thousands of other little heartaches. After all the woman of your dreams probably has dreams of her own, and none of them include you. What then? Either you go on your way or you become a stalker. I say it would be best to just leave dreams to the imagination and not torture yourself over what never was and never could have been.

Which means that at this point  I don't even know what I'm talking about anymore. Maybe I should end this post instead. Yes, Christmas can be so depressing sometimes. All I ask is that you leave me here with my music and my books, and please don't ask me to be merry. I don't have the heart for it. Now that the cold weather has started I'll be spending more time inside, and that means more blogging time and plenty of opportunities for me to exorcise my inner demons. In the meantime, enjoy your Christmas (or not) and I hope there's a new Mercedes sitting in your driveway on Christmas morning. I'll be on my computer, dreaming.

Cool Phone, Santa

The holidays are here and once again it's time to set aside all those things that are really secondary in our lives - ego, money, power - and remember those things that are truly important. After all, isn't that what Christmas is really all about. Isn't it about escaping the commercialism and consumerism and the traffic and the crowds, and getting back to what fulfills us as human beings? Isn't it really all about...

Hi-tech.

I think so, and don't tell me your not looking forward to some cool little gadgets and gizmos under the tree this Christmas. I know I am (like I really need another sweater - puhleeeeze). So with that in mind I thought I'd offer up a couple of ideas for the gadget freak in your family. These aren't the best Christmas gadgets out there, but just a couple of ideas for the geek on your list. And guys don't forget, it's not just men who are into tech these days. Don't let your Christmas morning turn out like this.

"Oooh honey, What is it?"

"It's a diamond solitaire, sweetheart. I just wanted you to know that I'd marry you all over again."

"A diamond solitaire? But I wanted an IPhone!"

"An IPhone? This is better than an IPhone. It's sentimental. You know how sentimental women are."

"I told you I wanted an IPhone."

"That's a full carat diamond. Look at it. And that's 14k gold. You're supposed to be smiling and glowing when you get something like that. You're supposed to hug me and kiss me and tell me what a wonderful husband I am. You're supposed to..."

"Yeah, well time to wake up and step out of your cave, Mr. Neanderthal man. Does this thing have a chip in it?"

"Yeah, right. Of course it does. When's the last time you saw a piece of jewelry that didn't come with it's own microprocessor."

"Well you don't have to get sarcastic...Look, I'm sorry, ok? It's just that...I do appreciate the thought. Really I do."

"Well, then you like it?"

"I love it. Did you keep the receipt?"

"It's in my wallet."

"Good, the Apple Store will be open tomorrow."


My first gift idea is the perfect product to buy for someone else that you wouldn't buy for yourself. It's an ebook reader called the Kindle, and it was just introduced today. Instead of an LCD screen it uses a technology called e-ink to display the pages, which greatly increases its battery life. It uses special ebooks from Amazon.com and can display b/w images as well as text. It also includes a free wireless connection so that you can shop Amazon and purchase books, magazines and newspapers wherever your in range of Sprint's EVDO high speed cellular network. And you get all this for only (choke)

FOUR HUNDRED DOLLARS.

Personally, I'm made of money so paying $399.00 for an ebook reader means nothing to me, but I'm guessing that most other people will find that price a little steep. Especially bookworms, who are basically cheap to begin with and not inclined to spend a wad of dough for a pricey plastic gizmo when a good ol' dog-eared, coffee-stained paperback would do just as well. Hell, most bookworms won't even spend money on hygiene and new clothes let alone a $400.00 ebook reader.

It's the kind of gift one book lover could give to another though, especially if the giftee spends a lot of time on the road. It's nice and portable, can around 200 books, and can even play MP3's and audiobooks from Audible.com. If only it didn't cost so much.

My second Christmas gift is for the budding Steve Vai in the family. I just bought one of these myself and it's cheap (around $90.00). It's called the Guitarport and it's a little box that allows an electric guitar to connect to a Mac or PC via a USB port. It's made by the folks at Line 6 who also make amplifers and other electronic musical goodies, and I'd say even the most burnt-out, brain dead rock and roller can get the thing installed and running.

The package consists of the little box itself and some software that needs to be installed on the computer. The box will not run without the software, so if you need to plug it into a mixer you're probably out of luck. Then again, if you have a mixer then why would you need a Guitarport? Hmmm... You plug the guitar into the front of the box and the power and the USB cable in the back and voila, you're ready to jam. The Guitarbox software comes with an insane amount of effect, amp and cab models, and on my Mac I can feed the input directly into Garageband and use all the effects, etc.. built into that software as well.

How does it sound? Pretty good. I made this little sample file so you could hear me jammin' with one of the Guitarport instruments. I'm sure that after listening you will come away convinced of my status as an amateur guitarist, but in the hands of a competent musician this box could probably do some wonderful things.

jazzy.mp3

Anyways, if I come across any more holiday gift ideas I'll be sure to pass them along. In the meantime, keep readin' and rockin' and have a Hi-tech Christmas.

New Love

So I think I mentioned I got this new MacBook thingy, and I know you're wondering why a dedicated PC user like myself would even consider buying an Apple computer, so I guess the world deserves an explanation. Ah well, that's the burden I've taken on by deciding to be a responsible cyberjounalist. It's not a job, it's a calling.

Actually, buying a Mac had nothing to do with being a Microsoft hater or anything like that. I was just curious, that's all, and thought it was time I tested the waters. Now, having spent the past month and half or so with the new machine, I think I'm ready to offer a few observations. Before I start, though, I just want to make it clear that I haven't made the "switch", if you know what I mean. People get so involved in this whole PC vs Mac debate (I'm sure you've seen the commercials) that they seem to think it's gotta be one or the other. Not so, dear reader. Truth is, it's quite easy to use both, and it's all a question of the right tool for the right job. You know, "from each according to his own ability to each according to his own need" and all that.

Marxist references aside, there is a fundamental difference to the PC approach and the Mac approach, and you notice it the minute you start the machine up. Booting into Windows is like walking into the cockpit of a Boeing 747. You've got all these dials and buttons and controls to master, and although they do allow you to control this powerful machine, it feels more complex than it should when presented with such a dizzying and complex array of options. Boot the Mac, on the other hand, and it just kind of smiles at you. It says "hey there, little buddy, want to do something fun today?" You feel like it's play time, not time to get down to some serious work. The downside to that is that complexity of the PC also allows you to make your own fun, while on a Mac you're pretty much limited to playing in Apple's sandbox. I might be overgeneralizing, but it's true.

But now the question you're all asking is "Is it hard for a PC user to learn to use a Mac?", and I'd have to say that yes, it's impossibly hard and if I wasn't born with such a superior intellect and ability I never would have been able to pull it off. If you're a moron, then I'd suggest you stay with the PC.

No, no, no, I'm just kidding. In fact what you've just witnessed is a small manifestation of the dreaded "Mac effect", wherein people who use Macs seem to think themselves slightly above the uncultured, unhip and definitely uncool PC crowd. Geez, I've only had the thing since September and I'm already acting snotty.

Anyways, learning the Mac isn't hard. It takes some practice, but otherwise it's a pretty seamless transition. The other question you're probably asking is "Can I still run my Windows programs on a Mac?" Well, duuuuhhh, it's a Mac, so I guess if you want to run your Windows programs then you should probably run Windows. What do you think (you moron). However, the good news is you can actually run the Windows operating system on a Mac and, in that way, have a nifty little do-it-all machine. I use a program called Fusion by an outfit called VMWare, and there are a couple of other programs that will do the same thing, but the upshot is the same - two OS's on one machine. The downside is that you're going to have to buy a copy of Windows, and let me tell you it ain't cheap. So the answer is yes, by investing a little more money you can run Windows programs on a Mac, just be sure you haven't maxed out your credit card by buying the computer.

Those questions aside, how do I like my Mac? I love it. I confess that most of my computer time is spent on email and the internet nowadays, and for that pretty much any kind of computer - Mac or PC - will do just fine. The Mac has the added advantage of being a (so far) virus free environment, so you don't have to hassle with all the preventative measures that you need when you run a Windows machine.

Like I said I've got the MacBook, which is not the most powerful laptop in Apple's line, but it's still a mighty fast machine with a gorgeous 13 inch screen and an Intel 2.2 Ghz Core 2 Dual processor inside. It's the first white computer I've ever owned, which seemed pretty cool when I bought it until I realized that I'd have to wash my hands before using it to keep from smudging up the keys. I added an extra gig of ram to it (not Apple's ram which is hideously expensive, but regular store bought ram), and haven't run into any performance problems whatsoever.

If I had to list my dislikes I'd start with the keyboard which is not nearly as responsive as my old Toshiba Satellites was, and the speakers which are tinny and thin sounding, especially when matched up against some of the higher end Windows machines out right now. My main beef, though, would have to be ITunes. I know that Apple users everywhere love this piece of software, but unless you own an Ipod it's usefulness is pretty limited. Just another example of Apple locking you into their little world, but I sure wish there was some better Mac alternative out there that would support my Creative Zen player. I know that's probably not a big deal for most people, but it's a big deal for me. Funny how Windows will support Apple's Ipod just fine, but Apple seems to insist on bending you to it's will with their OS. Oh well, you can't have everything.

Other than that I really like most of the Mac features, particularly this thing they call Spaces. Spaces is really nothing more than a repackaging of an old computer concept called virtual desktops, which I can remember going back to a program I used to run 20 years ago called PC Tools from Central Point Software. I never used the PC Tools virtual desktops much, but I like Spaces. All Spaces does is let you run programs on different screens within the computer, so, for example, you could have your browser running on one screen and your email client running on another, and through a simple keystroke command you can switch back and forth from one screen to the other. It seems like a simple concept, but it really does a good job at reducing screen clutter. I just wish we had something like this at work.

I also like a program that ships with the Mac called Garageband which lets you set up a little home recording studio on your Mac. I'm still learning it, but so far it seems quite versatile and easy to use. I'm just waiting for Zzounds to ship me my USB guitar interface, and then I can start laying down some hot licks and editing them right there in my Mac. Who knows, maybe I'll even post something one of these days.

Anyways, it's getting late and my shoulder is starting to hurt so I'm gonna have to end this post. Turns out when I fell off my bike a couple of weeks ago I ended up tearing my left rotator cuff. Go figure, huh. I thought people tore their rotator cuffs by throwing fastballs or touchdowns or something like that, not falling of their bikes. Well, at least now I can say that Joe Montana and I have something in common besides our money and good looks. I'm sure I'll have more to say about the Mac experience in the future, so stay tuned.

It's Natures Way of Telling You Something's Wrong

How is it that I find myself so busy at my computer on this fine California evening? Well there's a story behind that, and if I can just get my fingers to work this MacBook keyboard I'll tell you about it (more on my new MacBook later, perhaps). Let's see, where do I begin...

I commute to work most days on my Suzuki GZ250, and last week the weather was just perfect motorcycling weather. Last Friday, in particular, was especially lovely. The sun was out, the Bay breezes were blowing in from the north, and, as so often is the case in California, the temperatures sat mildly and comfortably in the mid-70's. Just a perfect Autumn day, and as I was cruising down the freeway on my Suzuki I couldn't help but reflect on how truly lucky I was to be in this place at this time and on this bike.

(are you with me so far?)

I needed to pick up a few things and so I got off the highway and cruised down the street to the local supermarket, all the while feeling remarkably cool and incredibly virile all dressed up in my black leathers and such. Riding my bike in my black leathers always makes me feel so male and manly, and as I pulled into the parking lot I just knew that more than a few passers-by wished they were me. I found a spot and pulled in the clutch as I eased into the empty parking space, turned the engine off and coolly looked around for admirers while I kicked the sidestand into place.

At least I thought I kicked the sidestand into place...

Actually, I had only partially kicked the sidestand into place, and as I leaned the bike over to rest on the stand it promptly folded back up against the bike and left me leaning over into nothing but an empty void and the inevitable gravitational vortex to which all of us are victim. Now, as you may recall from your high school science class, bodies at rest tend to stay at rest, but bodies in motion tend to...well...let's just say a more experienced pilot probably would have recognized the futility of trying to right the bike once it had begun to fall and would have immediately bailed out, but for some reason I decided to hold on for dear life, not stopping to think if this was a smart thing to do.

The next thing I knew I was lying on my side on the asphalt with my bike laying on top of me, not feeling nearly as cool as I did before, with a shooting pain in my left shoulder and a nagging doubt as to whether Marlon Brando had ever had a moment like this. Of course not. Brando was cool, and there was nothing cool about lying under my bike in a parking lot with my face shield in someone else's dirty motor oil. No time to worry about that now, though; the first thing I had to do was get up and pick up my bike.

So I slid out from underneath the bike and somehow struggled to my feet, feeling like the newbiest newb who ever put on a set of black leathers, and as I looked around I noticed that not one person in the parking lot who had seen my little mishap came by to offer assistance or ask if I was ok. If I had been hit by a car or something like that then sure, all kinds of concerned citizens would have come to my aid, but when you drop a bike, believe me, no one wants to be your friend.

In fact, come to think of it, when you ride a motorcycle people just treat you differently in general. Not in any drastic kind of way, but, you know, in subtle ways. For instance, sometimes when a woman sees a biker coming down the street she might start acting differently than if he were coming down the street in a car. You know, when she sees a biker she might start reaching into her purse for her cellphone or a can of pepper spray or something. Subtle little things like that. On the other hand, when some women see a biker coming down the street they have just the opposite reaction. They smile and flirt and give you that look like "Ooh, you sexy man. Give me a ride on your bike and have your way with me." At least that's what I think that look means. It could also mean "What a loser." I'm not really sure which.

Anyways, back to my story. Since I couldn't get any help, I picked the bike up and put it securely on it's stand, and even though my left shoulder was throbbing with pain, I nonchalantly made my way into the store as if to say "Oh that? It was nothing. Bikes do that sometimes." It wasn't until after I got out of the store my back started to stiffen on me and my left thigh started to throb, and yes it all made for a very interesting ride home as every time I shifted a gear my left leg would ache and my back would go into spasms. Somehow, I managed to make it home, and when I got in the door I immediately laid down on the bed and screamed my lungs out. That's when I found that getting into the bed was a whole lot easier than getting out of it, which I did only to go to the bathroom and even then not without much inner turmoil.

Well, it's now been 3 days since my little mishap in the parking lot and, though still not completely healed, I'm finding that I can physically do almost anything I want to as long as it doesn't involve sitting or the movement of any of my body parts. You know when I was younger I suffered harder falls than this one and I always just jumped right back up without feeling a thing, but you can't do that when you're old and decrepit. Damn, how I hate being old and decrepit.

So rather than just lie on my back and stare at the ceiling while I feel miserable and sorry for myself, I thought I'd do a little blogging and get some of you feeling miserable and sorry for me too. No, no, no, I'm just kidding. My back only hurts occasionally, and I've got the point where I can lift my left arm high enough to put a shirt on without breaking down and crying for my mother. Ah, life's little victories. And as for the bike, well, you know the old saying. When you fall off the horse then you got to dust yourself off and...learn to stay the hell away from horses.

No, that's not true. In fact I went for ride last night. Once you get a motorcycle in motion they're just fine. It's when they're standing still that they're dangerous.

Born To Be Wild

I just logged my 1000th mile on my little GZ this week, so I thought now would be a good time to write down some of my impressions. I don't know why anyone would care, but indulge me, ok?

First of all, I love biking. Period. End of argument. Any day I can't ride is a day wasted as far as I'm concerned. As for the GZ, it was a little tight for the first 500 miles or so and getting it to go any faster than 45 mph was a real chore. I took it in for regular maintenance at 600 miles, and ever since it seems to have really loosened up. The engine revs freely and the clutch has lost it's initial grabiness. The other day I was breezing down the expressway and couldn't believe it when the speedometer read 62 mph (ok, so this isn't a superbike - I thought I told you that).

Anyways, each day it seems to run better and better, and some mornings I can't wait to get out of bed and head off on my morning commute, only to drag around the office all day until I'm ready to head home again. I tell you, there's just something about being outside and feeling the thump-thump-thump of that engine that lifts my spirits every time I go for a ride. Especially when I pull up to a light and look at all those people lined up around me in their little metal boxes, all of them so remote and insulated from the world around them, that justifies all the little inconveniences of motorcycling (bugs, manhole covers, exhaust fumes blowing in your face, etc...). It's like all these people are driving around in little living rooms and never bothering to step out the door and experience what's outside. There they are - mom in the front seat talking on the phone and the kids in the back watching TV on their built-in video players, too self-absorbed to even engage each other, let alone the world going past their windows.

(Which reminds me of a story I saw on the news. Seems that Yosemite National Park has been having a hard time attracting visitors lately because a lot of kids seem to think that National Parks are boring. They're so busy living their digital lives that they just can't get into trees and waterfalls and stuff like that, so the Park Service is trying to find ways to get kids interested in nature again. Hmmm, maybe they could cover Half-Dome with a giant HDTV screen and set up some XBox 360's or something. That might interest them, for a couple of minutes that is).

Anyways, motorcycling, I've found, is all about being out in the world and engaging with nature and the elements, and like I said, I love it. Now that I've had a taste there's just no way I'll ever stop riding these things. That is, of course, unless I die first. One big problem with the GZ, though, is the seat. I can only go about 30 miles or so before major butt pain starts settling in. This is a real drag, and unfortunately none of the aftermarket seat manufacturers takes the GZ seriously enough to develop a replacement seat for it. The only solution I've found so far is short rides with long butt breaks, however that may change because I just placed an order for something called a buttbuffer. It's supposed to be some kind of space-age pad and I have no idea if it's gonna work, but at this point I'm getting desperate.

Other than that the GZ is pretty much what I expected it to be. It's steady and reliable, not too fast, and gets me around 70 mpg riding around town. I haven't taken it on the freeway yet, but maybe after I get my buttbuffer I'll be able to take an extended trip somewhere. Meanwhile, I stopped by a Triumph dealership the other day and looked at one of their new Bonnevilles. Ah, now that's a bike. No Harleyesque heft or sportbike plasticiness, just classic 60's styling, a 865cc parallel twin and nice firm cushion to rest your tush on. Hmmm, maybe next spring...

Oh, and before I go this news item just came across the wire. It appears that the Turkish government has passed a non-binding resolution condemning the United States for the genocide it committed against the native North American peoples during what it called the Great Indian Wars of the late 19th century. Although many in the American government were outraged at this meddling in U.S. history, there were a few democrats on the house floor who openly wept. Keep following this blog for more updates in this curious exercise among Washington politicians to assert their virtue and claim the moral high ground.

Twenty-four and Still Growing

Despite all my best intentions I'm afraid I've seriously neglected this blog of late. Yes, though I've heard the masses crying out for more posts and the mind is always willing, the clock and the calender simply haven't made proper allowances. In fact, I don't really have the time for a post tonight, but this news item was so good that I had to get it posted.

If you've read this blog at all then you know that I've been quite a fan of the young German violinist Julia Fischer. In the past I've said that she is probably the best of an army of very talented young violinists now appearing on CD and on the concert stage, and I even predicted that if you haven't heard of her before you almost certainly will in the future.

Well, she took an enormous step toward classical music superstardom today because it was just announced that at age 24, Julia Fischer has won the prestigious Classic FM Gramaphone 2007 Artist of the Year award. Now, some will quibble as to the importance of this or any other award, and I have to admit that this whole practice of ranking artists seems a little contrived to me, (who was better - Rembrandt or Van Gough?), but the fact that Fischer should beat out names such as Barenboim, Abbado, Gergiev and Terfel and be recognized as among the very best speaks for itself.

So, a short post and a hearty congratulations to Julia Fischer - the Classic FM Gramaphone Artist of the Year. Damn girl, that is so cool.

Sixteen Tons, and What Do You Get

Now I'm no economist, and just to prove the point I want to talk about the housing market. As you know, the Federal Reserve Bank lowered both the federal funds rate and the discount rate by 1/2 a percentage point today (that would be 50 basis points for all of you economic obscurists out there), and Wall Street went bonkers. All the major indexes were up well over 2%, and people were dancing and cheering like it was 2003. I'll admit I have a dollar or two invested myself and was feeling pretty good as well.

But what I don't get, and by the way the reason I'll never be an economist, is why this is such good news for the economy - particularly for the housing market. Yeah I understand about lower mortgage rates (which I was always told were more closely tied to Treasury rates than the fed funds rate), and I understand that lower interest rates makes it easier to borrow and buy those big ticket items, but so what?

Let's face it, the reason we got into that subprime mess to begin with was that people couldn't afford these houses they were buying, even way back in the days when the fed funds rate was down around 1%. So what's so different this time around? The growing disparity between rich and poor is still with us, and even most economists concede that for the past decade or so real wages have actually been in decline. CEO pay is up - way up, but the average worker has been losing ground and real estate prices have been going straight up.

So it seems to me that unless you're one of those people shopping for a summer estate on Martha's Vineyard, it's still the lenders job to find a way to get the average buyer into a home he or she can't afford. That means looser standards, creative lending, and yes, lower interest rates. However, lowering rates while simultaneously tightening standards just looks like a wash to me.

But then I'm no economist.

Anyways, Countrywide announced today that they were getting out of the subprime business, while the interest rate cut sent the financial and housing stocks way up. Whew, I guess that means the housing "crisis" is over. Not that I'm upset about that, mind you. Not in the least. I'll take a 300 point gain in the Dow any day, and I'm not above doing a little dancing in aisles myself. In fact, I'm feeling so good that I thought I might just head down to the men's room at the local airport to see if there were any parties going on. Maybe do a little toe-tapping, if you know what I mean.

Meanwhile, let's just see what happens with housing. If nothing else, the rate cut should be good for the home equity loan market, that is if anyone has any equity left in their homes (and there are any home equity lenders still in business). Other than that, I don't what any of this means except that health care costs keep rising, oil prices keep climbing, budgets keep stretching, and paychecks are getting thinner and thinner.

The Lost Cause

This is going to be the big week when Gen. Petraeus finally gives his report to Congress, not that anyone is expecting any big surprises. I think most people already have the gist of what he's gonna say. In fact, I was reading somewhere that somebody took a poll somewhere and found that a majority of Americans think that Petraeus is not being truthful about the situation in Iraq - and he hasn't even finished his report yet. Geez, you'd think people would at least let the guy open his mouth before they start calling him a liar.

But that's not how it works, and it all fits in with a phenomenon that I call the "liar, liar, pants on fire" syndrome. You see, through careful research and observation I've come to the conclusion that it's always easier to call someone a liar than it is to allow that he might be telling the truth. The reasons are simple. So long as you call someone a liar then that puts the onus on him to prove he's telling the truth. He's the one who is called to action, not me. I only have to stand and point.

On the other hand, if someone tells me something and I accept it as true, then the situation is reversed. He's done his job and now I am called to action. For example, if someone comes up to me and tells me my house is on fire and I dismiss him as a liar, then it's up to him to prove he's telling the truth. However, if someone comes up to me and says "look, isn't that your house on fire?", and I see that my house is indeed on fire, then suddenly it's me who has to get off my lazy butt and do something about it.

Does that make sense? Maybe I didn't explain it as well as I should, but I think the basis for 90% of all cynicism in any given population can be directly linked to the "liar, liar, pants on fire" syndrome. It's just so much easier for us lazy humans to dismiss something as a lie and feel ourselves astute than it is to act on uncomfortable truths. Not that I know what the General is going to say, but the sooner we can agree it's all lies then the sooner we can get back to what we were doing before we were so rudely interrupted.

Don't you agree?

Anyways, I don't think there's anything that Petraeus could say that would assuage the Copperheads, er Democrats. At least not when there is an election so close at hand. You make a little progress in Anbar and Baghdad and they just complain that you haven't ended the violence in all of Iraq. You end the violence in all of Iraq and they complain that you haven't ended the violence in Afghanistan. You end the violence in all of Iraq and Afghanistan and they complain that you haven't brought peace to the Middle East. You end the violence in all of Iraq and Afghanistan and bring peace to the Middle East and they complain that you haven't brought about total world peace. You end the ... you get the idea.

Personally I think what the General should do is occupy Savannah. I mean it worked before, didn't it? Why not give it a try. Just have Petraeus send a telegram presenting the City of Savannah as a Christmas gift to the President, and watch the tide of public opinion turn. Of course Petraeus seems more of a diplomat that General Sherman was, and Dubya is certainly no Abraham Lincoln, but what this Iraq War needs is a identifiable symbol of success. Without that, the American people are just going to keep on thinking that the politicians and generals are a bunch of liars.

And speaking of the Democrats, did you see that little fundraiser that Oprah Winfrey gave for Barak Obama the other night. Oh you should have seen it. Here we had the Democrats, the "green" party, then environmentally conscious anti-global warmimists, making their way into a car park to be bussed up the road to Oprah's exclusive Montecito Estate, and among these earnest and committed people not a Prius or Civic or any other fuel efficient vehicle in sight - just block after block of idling limousines and birds falling dead out of the sky from the fumes.

I guess that's all a part of what you could call the "it's easier for rich people to make movies about the world's problems than to sacrifice any of their comforts to actually do something about them" syndrome. Meanwhile, here's crusty old me riding my GZ to work each day (70 mpg), while these Hollywood hypocrites pollute the skies and debauch themselves with money, sex and drugs.

Damn, what am I doing wrong?

I Don't Want a Pickle, I Just Wanna Ride My Motorsickle

Wow. Over the last two months I've made a grand total of two posts. Not that the internet can't go on without me, but I really should try to do better than that, don't you think? My New Year's resolution this year was to make a blog post each and every day no matter what, but I guess that only proves the futility of resolving your way to better personhood.

Anyways, the weather has been so nice out here this summer that I just haven't had the time for much computer time. As I've said before, I'm not the kind of person that likes to sit inside and tap on a keyboard all day, especially when the sun is out and there's a nice cool breeze blowing in off the bay. Nope, sitting in front of a monitor may be okay for those other pasty-faced blogger geeks out there, but I'd rather go for a hike or a bike ride or even a trip out to the coast instead.

So that's my excuse. Indian summer is starting to settle in so I thought that as long as the weather is heating up I might as well enjoy this air conditioning and catch up on some blogging (hint for all of you out-of-towners: the hottest days around the bay usually start sometime after Labor Day and continue on until about the middle of October. That's when the fog disappears and the Santa Ana's pick up and our fire season reaches its most dangerous stages. The great Oakland fire was an October fire, as those of us who live around here remember all too well) .

For my first topic of this new blogging season I'd like to talk a little about motorcycling. You see, as you get older you start to think about things - lots of things; things you've done, mistakes you've made, and things you'd always meant to do but never got around to actually doing. Back in High School most of my friends rode motorcycles, but I never had the cash to buy one of my own. Other than a very occasional ride on one of their bikes, a motorcycle of my own was beyond my means and just sort of fell onto my "someday" list.

Fast forward a few decades later, and my brother mentioned to me that he had signed up for a Motorcycle Safety Foundation Beginning Rider Course that, unfortunately, had been canceled due to noise complaints from the neighbors. I asked him to let me know if he ever decided to sign up for another class, and the next thing you know it's 7:00 in the morning and we're standing in the parking lot of the local community college getting ready to gear up for our lessons.

If you don't know about the MSF or the BRC then I should explain that it's a class open to both raw beginners and experienced riders that is predicated on the belief that a lot of motorcyclists you see out on our public roads don't know what the hell they're doing. These are people that usually begin by asking a friend or family member to teach them how to ride, and then pick up an enthusiast magazine and drool over the latest high-revin' zero-to-sixty in 3 second pocket rocket, and then go down to the local dealership and buy themselves "one of those". That's the way many motorcyclists you see have learned to ride provided, of course, that they survived the trip back from the dealership. Sound familiar? Hmmm, maybe you have a young one of those living in your upstairs bedroom?

Which brings up this point: Is the "pro" rider the one you see weaving his way in and out of traffic at 90 mph, or is it the one who pays attention to his surroundings and rides within his ability level, having practiced techniques such as maximum braking, proper turning, swerving and low speed maneuvering? If you're under the age of 30, then I guess you'd say the "pro" rider is the one going 90, but if you're over 30 then you probably think the MSF BRC might not be such a bad idea.

The BRC always sounded like a good idea to me, so I took the course and passed it. Righ now I'm just waiting for them to send me my paperwork and then I'll be headed off to the DMV to get my M1 license (in California, passing the MSF BRC means you don't have to take the motorcycle driving test). In the meantime, I've got my permit and I'm happily riding my new motorcycle. That's a picture of me over on the left (handsome devil, ain't I?)

I read somewhere that you shouldn't think of your first motorcycle as your "dream" motorcycle, but rather you should think of it as your trainer. It's the bike that hopefully you'll be making all your beginner mistakes on. With that in mind, the best starter bikes are typically light, cheap and underpowered. Now the dealer won't tell you that. The dealer is going to tell you that with a 1800 cc engine and a dry weight of only 860 pounds, that $25k Honda Goldwing is the perfect bike for a beginner, or that Suzuki Hayabusa with a top speed of 190 mph and a 9 second quarter mile time is just the kind of bike to get started on and one you're not likely to outgrow in a couple of months. Well, I'm no fool. I'm a MSF BRC graduate so you can't oversell me like you do all the other noobs that walk in the door.

So what did I buy instead? Well, don't laugh - I mean it. My rider coach told me that you can learn on any bike, but you'll learn a lot faster if you start on a small bike and move up to something bigger, and since I trust my rider coach a lot more than I do some high commission motorcycle salesman I bought a Suzuki GZ250 - probably the safest and most boring motorcycle on the road today. Top speed? Are you kidding? Quarter mile times? You could get there faster on roller skates.

But is it fun? Damn, if it didn't make my butt so sore I'd ride the thing all day. Besides, it has all the features a beginner needs. Like all cruisers it sits low to the ground with a low center of gravity making it easy and stable to ride. It has a single cylinder engine making it very easy to maintain. It's fast enough to get around town, but not fast enough to get a beginner into too much trouble. It handles very predictably and you'd have to try really hard to dump the clutch and get the front tire in the air. And best of all, it doesn't look like a beginner bike. Fact is, I've gotten more than a few admiring looks while straddling my little GZ, and since I know nobody's gonna be looking at me then I have to conclude that others find it quite a looker too.

I also bought around $600.00 worth of gear (those helmets can get expensive) and a book considered to be the Bible of motorcycle riding called Proficient Motorcycling by David L. Hough. If you've taken the BRC then I think you'll find it an excellent resource for building on some of the fundamental concepts you've learned. In fact, David L. Hough was one of the people responsible for developing the coursework in the MSF program, and you can tell by reading the book that this guy knows his stuff. It's just a matter of absorbing it and applying it to your everyday riding habits.

And did I mention the GZ gets between 70-80 mpg? Well, it does. Today I pulled into a gas station next to a guy filling his Chevy Silverado and it was great. Five bucks and a gallon and half of gas and I was on my way, while that guy was still sitting there watching the the numbers spinning higher and higher. Ah, the joy of motorcycling.

In The Good Ol' Summertime

"Ain't like the old days."

"Yeah, the kids had respect back then. That's 'cause they was brought up right, not all pampered and spoiled like they are now."

"Why sure. You talked back like some of these kids talk nowadays and you're backside 'd get a good tanning, that's what would happen."

"You got to lay down the law, that's what you got to do. Teach your kids some respect. That's the problem, you see. Kids don't respect their parents anymore."

"Naw, they just do what they please. Like wild dogs, that's all they is. A pack of wild dogs."

"You know what I can't figure out is what they're all so angry about. When I was their age we didn't have no TV or Nintendo's or any of that. We did our chores and was grateful for everything we got. But these kids of today, they're always pissing and moaning about something, and joining gangs and shooting each other dead. What are they all so angry about?"

"It's all that TV they're watching. That's what does it to them. That and them videogames. They watch that stuff and it's like they want to go out and shoot someone, just like the people on TV. "

"And that music they listen to. That is, if you can call it music. All that cursing and sex and violence and such. How is that music? And little kids listening to it too. And their mothers don't say nothing. It's like the whole country's gone crazy."

"Yeah, it ain't like it used to be. Used to be you'd drive your girl out someplace quiet and turn on something romantic and, well, you know. Ain't like that anymore. Now you like a girl you just grab her and take her into the mens room, and 9 months later she's pregnant and applying for welfare."

"You're right. The romance is gone. Everything is sex, sex, sex. Hell, they even post pictures of it on the internet. Back where I come from we used to call girls like that sluts, but now they call them celebrities. Like that, uh, you know, Hilton girl. You hear about that. Had sex right there on the internet."

"Well listen to the songs. It's all bitch this and ho that. That's all they know."

"Those aren't songs. 'Tennessee Waltz', now that was a song. No sex and violence there. You could take a girl out on the dance floor and hold her close and not feel embarrassed by what they was singing with a song like that."

"Sure you could, because songs were romantic back then. Just a bunch of grunting and screaming is all they do now."

"You're right. We had songs about love and feelings, but all they sing about nowadays is sex and violence. No wonder these kids are all screwed up."

"You know I can still remember my dear old grandma sitting in her rocker listening to those old Jimmie Rodgers records. That was music, my friend. That was music. None of this sex and violence."

"Yeah, my grandma loved that Jimmie Rodgers too. You remember that ol' song, what was it called - T for Texas."

"T for Texas, T for Tennessee. T for Texas, T for Tennessee. T for Thelma, that gal made a wreck out of me."

"Yeah that's the one. I can still see my grandma sitting in her rocker listening to that song too. Kind of makes me want to cry to stop and think about it."

"If you don't want me, mama, you sure don't have to stall. If you don't want me mama, you sure don't have to stall. 'Cause I can get more women, than a passenger train can haul."

"That's good. Keep going."

"I'm gonna buy me a pistol, just as long as I am tall. Gonna buy me a pistol, just as long as I am tall. And I'm gonna shoot poor Thelma, just to watch her jump and fall."

"That part always made grandma cry a little."

"I'm going where the water drinks like cherry wine. I'm going where the water, drinks like cherry wine. 'Cause the Georgia water tastes like turpentine. Gonna buy me a shotgun with a great long shiny barrel. Gonna buy me a shotgun with a great long shiny barrel. Then I'm gonna shoot that rounder stole away my Gal."

"Yodel-a-ee-hoo, a-ee-hoo, a-lay-eee"

"Rather drink muddy water, sleep in a hollow log. Rather drink muddy water, sleep in a hollow log. Than to be in Atlanta, treated like a dirty dog."

"Yodel-a-ee-hoo, a-ee-hoo, a-lay-eee. Ha, ha, ha. That sure does bring back some memories. They don't write 'em like that anymore, do they."

"No sir, not like that. No sir."

Sell in May and Go Away

"Hello everyone and welcome to Weekly Business Roundup, where each week we look back at what was making news on Wall Street, and what lies ahead for you and your money. I'm your host Jackson Bailey."

(go to camera 2)

"Well, after what proved to be a particularly brutal week for investors, with the stock market in a deep decline and continued weakness in housing and the credit markets in turmoil, what should investors be doing now? Here to talk about that with us this week is our special guest Dr. Jack Kevorkian. Dr. Kevorkian welcome."

"Thanks for having me."

"What about this market? What's going on out there? Do you think the subprime mortgage mess is to blame, and have we seen the worst of it?"

"Before I get into that, Jackson, do you mind if I ask you something? That is, sre you feeling alright? I can't help noticing that you seem to be in some kind of pain."

"No, I feel fine. I guess I slept a little funny last night and now I've got some stiffness in my neck, but I feel great. Really."

"Oh, ok, I just thought I'd ask. You know no one has to live in pain, Jackson. There are other...more humane ways to deal with these very personal issues."

"No, Dr. Kevorkian - honest, I'm alright. Now back to the markets."

"Yes it was a very tough week for investors, wasn't it. How they've suffered, and a miserable, futile kind of suffering as well. In times like these I think it's important for investors to weigh their options, and consider some of the alternatives, if you know what I mean."

"How about those investors who sold bonds a few weeks ago when we had that big selloff in the bond market and saw the yields go well above 5%, only to invest that money in stocks and watch the stock market promptly go into the toilet just as the bond market started to rally and regain it's losses. What would you say to them?"

"I'd tell them that they must feel like total assess, but there's no reason to feel that way - worthless and stupid, if you know what I mean. It's all so avoidable."

"Well, Dr. Kevorkian, what would be your advice to investors in times like these?"

"My advice would be to face the truth, no matter how brutal, and ask themselves some hard questions. Can they really go on living like this, and what about the future? Sleeping on park benches and eating out of garbage cans - is that how they want to live out the rest of their days?"

"You don't mean..."

"I can offer them another way. A machine. It's very simple and humane, and portable too. That's so important for investor's who cherish their privacy."

"But Dr. Kevorkian, it's only money. I mean, for crying out loud, it's only numbers on a piece of paper."

"Only money? Is that what you think? Is that what your audience thinks? C'mon Jackson, let's be..."

"No. That's enough. The interview is over. This is a finance show, not The Twilight Zone."

"Sometimes it can be comforting to take control over your own destiny and..."

"I said that's enough Doc. People, if you don't know what to do with your money then put it in a CD or money market account. Take your 5.25% and wait for the dust to clear. But whatever you do, don't listen to this nut job."

"How often we fear what we don't under..."

"Will somebody please cut his mike. Thank you. Please join me next time on Weekly Business Roundtable when we'll discuss mezzanine subprime collateralized debt obligations with our special guest Tony Danza, and until then have a great week."

(but enough about the economy, let's talk about me)

Did I tell you I bought a bike? No, not a "hawg", but a bicycle. A Trek 7200 with Alpha Aluminum frame, RST CT-COM I C7 50 mm front suspension, alloy front and Shimano RM60 rear hub with Matrix 750 rims, a Shimano TX71 48/38/28 crank (with chainguard), and a Shimano Alivio rear derailleur, to be exact. I have no idea what any of that means, but it cost me $380 bucks.

First I should say that back in my younger days I had a Raleigh 10 speed which I used to ride just about everywhere, but since then my riding has been a little, uh, sporadic. After my Raleigh I bought a Mongoose hybrid that I rode for a while, but that soon found it's way to the trash heap. Since then, I haven't done much (any) bike riding.

That said, I decided I needed to get some exercise and since I live in one of the best bicycling areas in the country (that's a fact - I read it in a magazine), I bought the Trek. The only reason I'm bringing this up is because I know that there are probably some people out there who are in the same kind of shape I'm in and might not have done much bike riding lately, and if that's the case, then I've got some good news for you.

First of all, forget about that bike you used to ride years and years ago. These modern bikes are nothing at all like those. Bicycle technology has advanced leaps and bounds over that old 10 speed you used to ride. This Trek I've got is a 24 speed hybrid which means lots of gears to work with and no more drop down handlebars. Of course that has it's advantages and disadvantages. For example, try riding into the wind and you'll quickly discover the advantages of a bent-over riding position, but, all in all, us old folks will generally find the upright seating and the extra gears a little more comfortable and reassuring.

The Trek also has shocks on the front fork and underneath the seat, which is also greatly appreciated by us old geezers. I won't say the ride is butter smooth, but it's a lot better than those bone shaking models we rode as youngsters. The seat itself is generously padded, with extra padding provided in the butt cheek areas and a little groove running down the center of the saddle. Mothers and daughters may not appreciate the groove, but fathers and sons surely will.

The bike itself is smooth as silk to ride and shift. In the old days we used to have those derailleurs that went "chick-chick-chick" as we coasted along, but nowadays these things are absolutely silent. That can be dangerous if you happen to come up behind someone who can't hear you coming, so the Trek also has a little bell mounted on the handlebars that you can ring to let them know you're coming. Personally, I'd rather just yell "Out of My Way!" than ring that stupid little bell, but to each his own.

So there you have it. My new Trek 7200. The first time I rode the thing I went about 2 blocks before my legs started to burn and my lungs started running out of oxygen, but now I can ride a comfortable 7 miles or so each day. It's not much, about a half hour or so, but it's a start, and I'm thinking about getting a rack mounted on the thing so I can start commuting to work every now and then. We'll see. Meanwhile, I'm happy just pedaling along. I should mention that I'm already on my fourth tube for the rear tire because of all the garbage and debris that's piled up on the streets around here. That's the one drag about riding a bike, so if you're gonna start riding I'd definitely suggest you carry an extra tube, some CO2 cartridges and a tire tool with you. But if you can learn to fix a flat, then biking is actually a lot of fun.

And that's what's new in my world. Aren't you glad you stopped by?

Goodbye Yellow Brick Road

So I told you I was selling a house. Did you think I'd have time for blogging too? Sheesh, I barely have time for sleep, let alone profound blog thoughts.

Anyways, in case you were wondering I've been doing this house thing, and let me tell you, it's no fun being a seller. You just keep worrying and wondering if it's going to sell and if anyone's going to want to buy it, and it certainly doesn't help that every night some gloomy gus comes on the news and starts telling you how lousy the housing market is now. "Why, you'd have to be some kind of moron to try to sell a house in this market."

"Gee, thanks. I feel better now."

Now I'm sure that there are lots of people who have no problem selling their house. They just go with the flow and let the markets work their magic. Unfortunately, I'm not one of those people. I'm the type that when the house inspector comes out I'm just sure he's going to find major damage -

"Say, Mr. Myers, we checked under the house and it looks like the whole thing has fallen off it's foundation."

"It has? Is that what that big crack in the living room is?"

"Must be. It'll cost you three million dollars to fix it."

"Anything else?"

"Well the upstairs plumbing is leaking and you've got water damage in all the walls and floors."

"So that's why we haven't had any water pressure."

"Cost you three million dollars to fix it."

"Anything else?"

"Oh, and about that roof."

"Yes?"

"Well, have you noticed you don't have one?"

"To tell you the truth I haven't really looked."

"Yeah, it looks like the termites and the roof rats have eaten the roof all the way down to the rafters."

"Don't tell me. Three million do..."

"Cost you five million dollars to fix that."

Yeah, it's no fun to be a seller. It's kind of like going in front of St. Peter and answering for all your sins, you know what I mean. You know that Judgment Day is going to come, but you just keep putting things off. Then, you decide to sell and find out that all those little jobs you meant to get to sooner or later are written right there in that book. On the other hand, I am blogging tonight so I guess that can only mean one thing. Yep,

Someone actually wants to buy the house!

In fact it's better than that. Lots of people want to buy the house. Hmmm, seems to me that maybe that old saying is in need of a rewrite. Happiness may be a warm puppy, but true happiness is a good location and multiple offers. Anyways, that's why I'm blogging tonight. The house is sold, and for 3% over the asking price. So much for the great housing collapse of 2007. It might look like that in Detroit, but here in the Silicon Valley jobs are plentiful, demand is high, and folks are flush with cash.

Of course, the fact that it was...I mean is...I mean was...a great house might have something tgo do with it. I'm gonna miss my little castle in Spain. I really am, but life goes on. Still, I get a little misty eyed just thinking about how the new owners are gonna feel on that first peaceful morning when they look out their window at that serene little yard and see the dew on the grass and roses in bloom, and the deer out in the front yard eating all their exotic flowers and fancy ornamentals. Damn, I'm gonna miss those #$@^! deer.

But I don't want to talk about selling the house because, frankly, who cares. I've been thinking I should start a blog about books that came out four years ago and that I'm now just getting around to reading. I mean, that's how most books get read, isn't it? Most people don't read a book the day it comes out (except for Harry Potter). They hear about it or read a review, and think "Sounds good. I should read that sometime", and then four years later they finally get around to reading it.

The book I just read is The Devil in The White City by Erik Larson, and it was great. I know that's not much of a review but the book came out four years ago for crying out loud. At this point, what more can I say?

Anyways, the book is about the Great Columbian Exposition of 1893 and mass murder. It seems like a strange combination, but it works (and it's nonfiction, by the way). The thing that got me was how magnificent that World's Fair must have been. Think about it. People from farms in Iowa, Indiana, and Illinois who had no running water and only kerosine lamps to light their houses, got on trains and traveled to this fair in Chicago and saw these huge buildings lit with electric lights, saw safety elevators take people up and down in little cars, saw electric boats gliding silently on Lake Michigan, saw a giant wheel lift people three hundred feet in the air (Ferris' wheel was the tallest structure in Chicago at the time), saw kinetiscopes displaying moving pictures, and perhaps most amazing of all saw Thomas Edison's new invention that could actually capture and store the human voice. They say the people who saw the fair never forgot it.

Now here we are a little over a hundred years later, and that kind of awe-inspiring spectacle will never be seen again. It can't be. We've now become so accustomed to technological change and the pace of technological change, that most of the wonder and the magic are simply gone. Well not gone so much as mass-produced into irrelevance. Isn't that what the Iphone is really all about? Nowadays, "wonder" is focus-grouped and field-tested and produced in such a machine-like fashion that real "wonder" is just a relic of a bygone era, replaced by "hype" and "buzz". Or do you think it's just a coincidence that the Iphone is being released at 6:00 pm just when the local newscasts are going on the air? Do you think that Apple is going to complain when all the local news shows send their live crews down to the local Apple store to provide breaking coverage of "Iphone mania"?

It's the age we live in. The age of "Buzz". Man, what I wouldn't give to have lived a hundred and fourteen years ago, to have been ignorant and unknowing, and to have traveled to the World's Fair.