Sunrise, Sunset

You know, newspaper reporters have it easy. I mean there's always something going on, always something to write about. Sports writers always have a game to talk about, movie critics always have a batch of new movies to write about, and even the lowliest beat reporter can always find some kind of dirt that needs digging. But us bloggers...what is there for us? To what great crisis do we turn our gaze?

The economy? Pffft, the markets up and then it's down. Politics? Pshaw, it's all just money and lies. Culture? Are you kidding? In America? Social history, the great struggle against the injustices of our time. Bah, they ought to just nuke this place and put us all out of our misery.

Nope, it's time to face the ugly truth that after a year and a half this blog simply has nothing left to say. No insights, no perespectives, just a lot of blah, blah, blah. It's pretty pathetic really, and I could just sit around and feel sorry for myself but I won't. I'll climb out of this rut. I'll find some way out of this feckless, pointless, maze of lethargy and alienation. I'll....I know...I know what I'll do...

I'll go talk to Bill.

Bill Gates, that is. The Chairman of Microsoft and the world's richest man. Yeah, Bill Gates. He'll know what I should do. In fact, that's his house over there. Maybe I'll just ring the doorbell and see if he's in.

(Ding-dong)

Hmmm, no answer. Maybe I should try knocking.

(Knock, knock, knock)

Hmmm, still no answer. Maybe nobody's home.

"Hello"

(Where did that come from)

"Hello", (there it is again) "can I help you?"

"Uh, yes, I'm looking for Mr. Bill Gates. I was hoping that...say, where are you?"

"I'm up here, on the balcony."

"Oh, up there. Now I see you. Hello, My name is Tony Myers and I'd like to speak with Mr. Bill Gates please. Is he home?"

"Of course he is -who do you think you're talking to?"

"Oh, sorry. Of course, you're...Heh, I guess I didn't recognize you in your bathrobe."

"What do you want?"

"Gee, you're really Bill Gates huh? I've never talked to a multibillionare before."

"What do you want?"

"Oh yeah. Well you see Mr. Gates, sir, that's sort of the problem. I mean, that is to say, um... well, I guess I'm not really sure what I want. That is...look, I know how strange it must seem to you to drop by unannounced like this, and... I guess I just want to talk that's all. That is, if you don't mind. You see, Mr. Gates, the truth is that I've been feeling a little detached lately, and, I don't know, sort of indifferent and uninspired, and I was hoping that..."

"Are you drunk or something?"

"No, no...nothing like that. You see I was just hoping that..."

"Well, I don't know what I can do for you."

"Please Mr. Gates, if you'll just give me a minute of your time."

"What for?"

"Please Mr. Gates. Just 5 minutes. That's all I'm asking. I promise. If you can just give me five minutes to explain..."

"Can't you see I'm busy."

"Five minutes, Mr. Gates. Please. What's five minutes to you if it can help a lost and wandering soul find new meaning and a reason to go on..."

"You sure you're not on drugs or anything?"

"No, honest. It'll just be five minutes, I promise. If you just give me five minutes I..."

"Alright, alright. C'mon up. But you've got five minutes and that's it. Understand?"

"Yes, Thank you sir. Thank you. I'll be right up."

(I try turning the door knob but it won't budge)

"Excuse me, Mr. Gates sir, I think the door's locked."

"Just use the key."

"But I don't have a key. You see..."

"It's under the doormat."

"What?"

"Under the doormat. The key is under the doormat."

"Oh, ok...thanks. I'll be right up."

(And so I enter the house, and climb the stairs to the office, and there I see Bill sitting at his desk)

"Mr Gates...thank you for seeing me. I'm really sorry to bother you like this but..."

"Yes, yes, what can I do for you?"

"Well...you see..."

"Yes"

"Um, well...the thing is...uh, do you want your front door key back? I mean I have it here in my pocket if you want it. I didn't want to leave it laying under the doormat like that, you know. It seems so insecure."

"Insecure?"

"Yeah, you know, leaving your key laying around like that isn't really safe. I mean a stranger could just come along and find it and then break into your house and start messing around with everything and taking stuff. You know."

"No, I'm afraid I don't know. What are you talking about?"

"Well, I mean leaving your house wide open like that is kind of dangerous, isn't it?"

"Dangerous? Why?"

"Well, because...oh never mind. It's not important."

"If I didn't leave the key under the mat then how would our partners come in and do all those awesome things?"

"Right. Well there you are. See, I didn't think of that. I guess that's why you've got 40 billion dollars and I'm still living on food stamps and credit cards."

"Yes, I do have this vision, it's true. But this security thing is interesting... I hadn't thought of that. Yes, I think I'll bring it up the next board of directors meeting and see what they think . Perhaps we can patent it."

"That would be awesome Mr. Gates."

"Yes it would, wouldn't it. Yep, I'll definitely need to bring it up. Let me just make a note of it...there. Now, what seems to be the problem?"

"Blogger's block."

"Blogger's block?"

"Yes, I've got this blog, you see."

"What kind of blog?"

"A clever, cogent, insightful one, sir, full of weight and importance. The kind that millions of hungry readers depend on for perspective and analysis on the breaking issues of the day."

"I see."

"No, I'm afraid you don't see. That is, I mean, well, it's like I've hit a wall. I don't know what happened but all of a sudden I just don't have anything left to say."

"Well, I'm flattered that you've come to me but honestly I don't what it is that I can do for you. Isn't there someone else you can talk to about this?"

"No one sir. No one with your vision that is."

"Please, call me Bill."

"Bill?"

"Yes, that's what my friends call me."

"Ok, uh Bill. I really need your help with this."

"Are you sure you don't have a priest or a rabbi that you can go? They may be able to help you find your way."

"No, I'm not particulary religious that way, uh, Bill."

"Oh, well, since there's nobody else let's see what I can do. Hmmm, I know. Couldn't you do a blog about technology? People like technology and I might even be able to help you out a little."

"What should I say?"

"Well, you could talk about all ways that Microsoft is working with it's partners to bring cool and awesome solutions to the billions of people, using it's vision and leadership to take computing and the Windows platform into the 21st century."

"Yeah, I could talk about that."

"Well?"

"To tell you the truth, Bill, Windows has gotten kind of boring. OS X is where it's at these days."

"OS X? That's not a serious business OS. You don't see Fortune 500 companies running OS X do you? When sleazeballs and script kiddies want to bring down a a major corporation they don't write worms and trojans to attack OS X, do they? Hell no, turn to Windows. That's where the vulnerabilities are. That's where they can do the most damage. They don't want to waste their time on some puny little operating system like OS X."

"Well you see Bill, maybe that's the point..."

"And what about Vista? Haven't you heard about Vista? This is cool stuff. Our partners think it's awesome. Software companies, IT Departments, virus authors, spyware scammers...they've all told us how eager they are to take this next leap forward."

"Ok, maybe when it's released a year or two from now I can blog about Vista. But I need something to blog about now. Have you got anything else?"

"Yeah, we've got XBox 360 - you could blog about that."

"I'm not into games."

"It's not a game machine. It's a powerful home multimedia center that just happens to play games."

"Really? What can it do?"

"It can play DVD's."

"But I've already got a DVD player."

"It can connect to the internet."

"But I'm already connected to the internet. How do you think I post my blog?"

"If you want you can even add a hard drive."

"But...so, in other words, it's going to do all the things my computer already does."

"Yes, but your computer isn't connected to your TV."

"How much do you want for this thing?"

"300 bucks for the basic unit, 400 bucks if you want to add a hard drive."

"I'll pass."

"But you haven't even seen all the awesome products that..."

"Our partners are working on. Yeah, I know. Thanks, but I think I'll pass. Got anything else?"

"Windows Mobile 5?"

"Yeah, ok, there you go. I like my smartphone. Needs 3G though. And the screen gets all greasy whenever I put it up to my ear to talk. Any awesome solutions coming from your partners on that?"

"Windows Mobile 5 will deliver to the consumer the kind of awesome experience that..."

"Yeah, ok, ok. Windows Mobile 5 sounds cool but I've already blogged on smartphones."

"You have?"

"Yeah. You see the problem, don't you? I've got this blog but there's just nothing new to say."

"I see what you mean. That IS the problem isn't it. It's like how we used to be cool but now all people want to do is complain about us or sue us or blame us for every little thing. Have you seen our stock price lately? Nothing. Up a little, down a little, up a little, down a little...geez, I've seen bingo nights at the local retirement home that were more exciting than our stock price. How did everything go so stale all of a sudden?"

"Maybe the ideas just stop coming."

"But our partners, our awesome solutions....it happened so fast."

"That's the way life is, Bill. One day you're a fresh young flower just waiting to be plucked, and the next you're just a wilted, empty stem, your youthful glamour spent as you sit there barren and useless and unwanted. Yes, nature is a cruel mistress, Bill, and the days pass, and the sun sits low in the sky, and the light thins and pales, and then what? What do you do then, Bill? Do you just wither and sag and eat your suppers alone as you watch the young bucks chase after fresher game? Or do you refuse to succumb to the ravages of time and vainly try recapture some of your lost youth? Do you seek out some specialist who can smooth the wrinkles and hide the blemishes and tighten up the loose spots? And then what happens , Bill? How long do you deny the relentless march of time? Week after week, month after month, year after year, and all the while your youth escaping as you go from one operation to the next, desperately trying to hold on even as you become cadaverous and hideous and grotesque, not knowing anymore where the plastic ends and the flesh begins, denying your true self to pursue some fleeting vision of youth and beauty and happiness and all the time knowing that true happiness can only come from within, that true love starts when you accept yourself and love yourself for who you truly are. Is that the answer, Bill? Is that what life is all about? To go on pretending, to go on living a lie, to go on acting out this macabre comedy of deception and deceipt only to..."

"What the hell are you talking about?"

"My next blog, Bill. That's it. I've got it now. Thank you, you've been a tremendous help."

"I have? Geez, but I feel terrible. I mean everything was going great until you showed up. I was even planning on going over to Steve's house later to squash a few bugs but now, I don't know, I just don't feel up to it somehow. You know, I guess this has just been one of the worst conversations I've ever had in my life."

"That's funny, it's been one of the best conversations I've ever had. You've given me new inspiration. The greed, the ambition, the whole dirty, sordid truth. It's all there."

"Sordid Truth? That's going to be your blog?"

"Yep, as soon as I get back to my computer and write it all down. See ya' Bill."

"Yeah, see ya'. Say, you're not coming back are you? 'Cause if you do I want you to be sure to ring the doorbell so I can pretend I'm not home."

"Ok, but aren't you forgetting about that key under the doormat?"

"Damn!"

Sind Wir Dort Noch


Not that the issue was ever in doubt, but just to prove I'm no Ansel Adams I thought I'd post a Half-Dome picture from my recent trip up to the mountains. As you can see, my shot isn't quite as dramatic as others you've seen, but after all it's only a picture of a rock. What did you expect?

Anyways, nice to be back here in the valley. Back from the quiet of trees and wind and clear mountain streams, back to the belching and screaming and shoving of the wretched masses, back to the crime and the grime and the traffic, back to the...

Oh, fuggedaboutit!

Yosemite was nice, though. Yeah, you got your wretched masses up there too, but there are still a few places you can go to get away from it all, relatively speaking that is. If you decide to go anywhere where there's food or bathrooms or just a nearby roadside attraction then don't expect to find any peace and solitude.

And they're all Germans too. Everywhere I went it was "dis" this and "der" that. Guess they don't have enough moutains in Germany so they gotta come over here and gawk at ours. It was kinda funny though because it seemed like German families on vacation are just the same as American families on vacation. I mean first you got Dad walking up the trail with 500 pounds of photographic equipment strapped around his neck and over his shoulders, then you've got Mom walking behind with this "my isn't this wonderful - let's buy something at the gift shop" look on her face, and then of course you've got the kids running around and poking their noses into everything and stopping every 15 seconds to pose for another one of Dad's pictures. If they never talked to one another then you'd never know they were German, but they were speaking lots of German.

Anyways, even with all the crowds and commotions Yosemite is still one of the wonders of the natural world. I guess that's why people get on jets and fly halfway around the world just to see it. I only live a couple hundred miles away and have seen it dozens of times and it still amazes me sometimes. What's funny is for someone local to the area to go back and read John Muir's book on Yosemite and just think about how much California has changed in the past 100 years or so. Muir talked about leaving the lush Santa Clara Valley and standing atop the Pacheco Pass to behold the marvelous spectacle of the Sierra Nevada Mountains towering up in the distance, and nowdays the Santa Clara Valley is just a sprawling suburb and the interior of California is so choked with smog that you'd be lucky to even make out the Central Valley from Pacheco Pass, let alone the Sierras in the distance.

Oh, to have lived a hundred years ago.

Of course, back in John Muir's day if you wanted to see Yosemite Falls you couldn't just pull up in your SUV and find a parking spot out front either. Back then you had to walk, and it was a hell of a long walk too. And you couldn't just get a burger and fries at the snack bar, or a T-Shirt with with a picture on the front or batteries for your camera. None of the necessities that today's intrepid wilderness traveller would dream of being without were available back then. So I guess you have your tradeoffs, don't you.

I decided to go the John Muir route and rough it on this vacation, which for me meant unplugging myself and actually leaving my computer at home for a change. I've always thought about doing it on past vacations but somehow the thought of being without the internet for a week or even a couple of days always gave me the shakes. But this time I finally did it - I cut the cord, so to speak, and went out into the wilderness totally unarmed. Well, almost. I still brought my PDA, of course, and my MP3 player, and my digital camera, and my cellphone. But other than that I was totally unwired!

I also picked up this little FM Transmitter thingy for my MP3 player that let's you listen over your car radio. They're pretty useless in the city where the airwaves are thick with traffic, but out in the mountains they're pretty handy things to take along. I just loaded up with Podcasts and audiobooks before I left, and as soon as I started to lose the normal radio signals I just fired up the transmitter and got crystal clear reception from my MP3 player. I was really suprised how well it worked, and after a spending hours and hours crawling behind lines of motorhomes climbing their way up twisty mountain roads I was glad I brought it along. And it sure beats spending hundreds of dollars and $13.o0/mo for satellite radio.

But now my vacation is over and here I am back in front of the old computer again. Geez, it was nice while it lasted but unfortunately it's time to move on. I've got blogs to write, podcasts to record, and miles to go before I sleep.

Miles to go before I sleep.

However I can't leave yet without one last little commercial. I found a great podcast while I was away and I want to plug it (because I know just how influential this blog can be). It's called Podopera and it's and a podcast about (duh) the Opera. Actually, it's done by a outfit called HatstandOpera out of the UK and it features interviews, and arias, and commentary and all kinds of good stuff courtesy of a very enthusiastic lady named Kirsty Young. I was listening to it while I was making my way through the High Sierra and I just loved it. In fact listening to it made me uncomfortably aware of just how badly my own podcast sucks. Oh well, that's my problem I guess. Anyways, if you're a music lover then check out Podopera. I'm sure you'll get a kick out of it.

Think I'll Just Sit Here On This Bank Of Sand And Watch The River Flow

And now for the Financial News:

Diamond Foods (DMND) made headlines this week when their IPO opened at $17.00 a share and quickly rose almost 25% to $21.05. Diamond Foods is engaged in the processing, marketing and distribution of nuts both here in the U.S. and internationally. I was going to buy some shares on margin myself, but was afraid of the phone call I might get if stocks should suddenly hit a wall and turn south. I mean I can just hear my broker calling me now -

"Tony, the bottom's dropped out of the market. You better cover your nuts."

(Ok, ha, ha, ha, just a little stock market humor there).

Don't know if you caught it on NBR but Susie Gharib had the CEO of Diamond Foods on the show tonight. It was a pretty good interview until they got to the part -

"Mr. Mendes, your stock has had a pretty good rise today. Is it time for investors to consider selling some of their shares and taking some profits?"

"No Susie, we think the stock still has a lot of upside. This is a growing market and even with the tremendous rise we've seen so far in the stock, I wouldn't be selling right now. I think I'd be holding my nuts."

(Hee, hee, hee...Yeah folks, I got a million of 'em)

Alright, alright, alright...enough of the Diamond Foods jokes. So what else is new? As you can probably tell this is one of those blogs where nothing is happening and I've got nothing to talk about.

Well let's see, I bought a new car. Yeah, whoopee!!! It's a nice car, got it a good price, and the first 200 miles or so have been trouble-free. So far, so good, and I can't complain I guess. (Yawn)

Gee, that was exciting. Let me think what else is happening.

Oh yeah, I was thinking about the last housing slump we had here in the Bay Area back in the 1980's. I know most people out surfing the net weren't even born back then, but if you remember at the time we had out-of-control spending in Washington, a ballooning deficit, and a lot of fast, easy money flowing into the real estate market. Of course we also had a lot of foreign investors bidding up real estate prices to unsustainable heights back in those days, but just bear with me on this, will 'ya.

Oh, and while we're at it there's something else I want to get off my chest. Why is it that whenever Asian investors start buying up American assets it's percieved as a grave threat to national security, and yet whenever Europeans start buying up assets no one even seem to notice. If you remember that's the way it was back in the 80's when Japanese investors started buying up office building and golf courses and everyone started saying what a crisis it was for the U.S., and that's the way it still is today when a Chinese company tries to buy a U.S. oil company and sets alarms ringing all the way from Capitol Hill down to the White House. Geez, if a English company had tried to buy Unocal do you think it would have created a national scandal?

Or do you think there might just be a little racism going on here? Beware the yellow peril?

Anyways, where was I. Oh yeah, I remember back in the 80's the first sign of trouble I saw in the real estate market was the rising number of homeowners that seemed to be delinquent on their property taxes. Everyone always focuses on mortgage delinquencies when looking for signs of trouble in the real estate market, but I noticed back then that it seemed like people get behind on their property taxes first, and then later on they start falling behind on their mortgages.

Another thing that happened back in the 80's was this whole business of appraisers overvaluing properties and defrauding lenders into making loans that were wildly over the true market value. I can't say I noticed that at the time, but of course we all found out what was going on when all the Savings and Loans started failing because of the billions and billions of dollars of bad loans they were holding in their portfolios.

So now let's fast forward to the present and what do I see? Well obviously I wouldn't be writing this if I didn't see the same thing starting to happen all over again. It just so happens that my job gives me a good overview of what is really happening in the local real estate market and let me tell you - I bet a good 7 out of 10 sales I see all have owners who are delinquent on their property taxes. Now to be fair it's also true that I usually see a lot of delinquent property taxes on sales because, well, what happens when people start getting behind on their taxes? Right, they sell the house. But the point is that I am seeing a LOT of people delinquent on their taxes, and it seems to me that we are starting to get into some dangerous waters here.

And then you add to that the fact that I'm also seeing more and more lenders getting questionable appraisals, and by that I mean appraisals that are just plain wrong (deliberately wrong?) as to some of the facts, and it seems to me that we may be headed for another shakeout. Not that I'm trying to predict the future or anything like that, but the warning signs are there. I think if I had some money invested in any of the big mortgage lenders out there I'd be scrutinizing things very closely and getting ready to bail at the first sign of trouble.

But like I said, I don't have a crystal ball and only a fool would take investment advice from a blog.

Well, so much for that.

Let's see, anything else happening. Oh yeah, my favorite musical superstar is coming out with a new Mozart CD next month. If you go to the Deutshe Gramophone site and look up Hilary Hahn you'll see they've got a few excerpts there you can stream. You can't tell much from a 60 second sound clip, of course, but it seems to me that we are going to get a different Hilary on this CD than we have in the past. I dont' know, there's just something in her sound that's not the same, like the child prodigy days are gone and now the mature artist phase of her career is setting in. But, like I said, how much can you really tell from a 60 second sound clip.

Sheesh, some blog huh? Probably shouldn't even have bothered. Oh well, I'm just so burned out from all the car shopping I've been doing over the past couple of weeks...Hopefully I'll have something stimulating and provacative to add to the 'ol blogosphere next time.

Hopefully...