Am I My Brother's Keeper?

The good news is that California finally has a budget. The bad news is that the budget California finally has is really just a make-believe budget, with the important point being that after seventy something days (I've lost count) of haggling, the Governor and the Legislature have finally found something they can agree on. Putting partisanship and rancor aside, they have agreed not to deal with the state's financial mess until next year.

That's the net effect, at least, because although the state was able to balance the books, it was able to do so only by borrowing billions from the state's lottery fund, closing unspecified tax loopholes, and conjuring up some black ink through fiscal sleight of hand. No one was fooled by any of this, of course, not even the legislators themselves, but with millions of Californians looking on they promised it was the best they could do. Everyone would get the state money they were looking for, and it wouldn't cost the taxpayers a cent in new taxes. All that was required was a little razzle and a little dazzle, and the magic of pretend money.

And you know, pretend money is wonderful stuff. It's all over the front pages these days. Everybody's using it - investment banks, insurance companies, homebuyers, and now even the State of California is joining in the fun. The great unknown in all this, however, is if the state goes belly-up, will the Treasury also be there to bail California out? I only ask because when you continually have more money going out than money coming in, that's what happens.

As things stand now, I wouldn't be suprised if at some point California eventually finds itself down at the courthouse filing for bankruptcy (remember, you heard it here first). We've had cities declare bankruptcy before, and even Orange County had to file once, so if it's the state's turn, would that be such a bad thing? Let's face it, our credit rating is already one of the country's lowest, so how much damage could we do? It might give us the chance we need to get our debits and credits in order, and we could always bill the Treasury for the massive defaults on our bonds and other outstanding debts. More importantly, we could clean the slate and start to bring our pretend finances more in line with reality.

We're a can-do state, so I say go for it.

Meanwhile, just to change the subject, back in Washington it looks like things are really getting weird. First our Congress started with a simple 700 billion dollar bailout of the financial system, but not safisfied to leave well enough alone, they now want to tack on all kinds of other goodies just so they can raise the price tag even further. For example, they've decided that they also want to regulate executive pay. Well, the pay packages have been excessive, but do we really want the government to start regulating wages? I say give the shareholders a rope and a sturdy limb to hang it from and they'll know how to deal with poor performance. Ok, maybe nothing that extreme, but at least let them toss a few rotten tomatoes.

The government, it seems, also wants to enter the foreclosure market. Another good idea? Perhaps we should remind them that the national foreclosure rate currently stands at 1.6%, so when they talk about "Americans losing their homes" they're really only talking about the 1.6% who got in too deep and can't make the payments, not the 98.4% who have been able to manage their affairs responsibly and will now be asked to foot the bill. That may seem like a heartless thing to say, but I swear that in all the years I was involved in that industry I never saw a single broker put a gun to anyone's head and make them sign the papers. Sure, some brokers may have been more aggresive than others, but the final decision always rested with the buyers. Do they bear any responsibility for the decisions they made? Does anyone anymore?

But then, that's not the problem, is it? The problem is we need to stabilize the housing market (i.e. stop prices from falling), and therefore we must renogotiate these problem loans. Once again it's the "problem loans" and the "problem companies" that get assistance, while everybody else gets the bill. It's not fair, we are told, but necessary, and for that we should be glad. As the Bible says, "thy brother was dead, and is alive again; and was lost, and is found." Amen, but just how much are fatted calves are running these days?

Anyway, I saw President Clinton on the TV tonight. He's advocating a revival of FDR's Home Owners Loan Corporation to help people renogatiate their loans. It worked back in the 1930's, he said, so why not do something similar today. Of course, what the President forgot to mention was that the after the HOLC was enacted in 1933, home ownership rates sank, and by 1940 had reached their lowest level of the entire century. We can argue the reasons, but I just wanted to offer that as a historical reference.

My guess is that despite the federal government's efforst to prop them up, home prices are going to reach bottom one way or the other, and the bottom will come when houses become affordable enough so that people can put their 20% down and make the payments on a 30 year note. When that happens we won't have a pretend housing market anymore, but a financially sound housing market instead. I believe that's the whole idea.

But, I'm no expert, so what do I know.

Like Hamsters In A Wheel

In Tom Vanderbilt's new book "Traffic", a man questions those people who complain about being stuck in traffic jams. Don't they understand, the man asks, that "they are the traffic jam." It's true. We complain, and yet we are all collectively a part of the very thing that we complain about.

With that in mind, I'd like to address a similar question to those who complain about the financial crisis, as though it were some kind of "Wall Street" phenomena. Really? Take a look around you, friend, and ask yourself just who is this thing we're calling a crisis. After all, wasn't it the credit bubble that bought you that new house, and that new kitchen, and that luxury SUV sitting in your driveway, and all those designer fashions hanging in your closet? Wasn't it the credit bubble that bought you those Caribbean cruises and paid for that college education? Isn't it you that spent beyond your means and is now looking to the government to stop the carnage and, in the process, secure that financial house of cards you've built for yourself?

Of course not. It's those flim-flammers on Wall Street who were the greedy ones. You'll hear no mea culpa's here. Too bad, though, if in our rush to punish others we end up punishing ourselves. Too bad, if the cure turns out to be worse than the disease.

Take the housing market, for instance. It always amazes me when people ask "when is the housing market coming back?", as if the real estate market were just experiencing some momentary indigestion and would soon resume its double-digit climb into the eternity. Well it might, but then again, not so fast. Consider, for example, that thanks to the rapidly deflating credit bubble, the days of no money down, stated income loans are probably not coming back anytime soon. Since those types of loans were a major fuel for the housing boom, their disappearance is going to make it tough to reignite the housing market. Think about it - first-time home buyers are going to need actual money to buy a house (20% in most cases). Good heavens!

Here in the Silicon Valley, 20% means a down payment of at least $80,000 to buy even the tiniest of Condominium units. Now I don't profess to know what's in your wallet, but I think there are a lot of people around here who barely have enough cash in the bank to keep their checking accounts afloat, let alone an extra $80k or so to put down on a house. If their stock options pan out or if they've managed to salt enough away in their 401k's then maybe they can swing it. Otherwise the first-time buyer is going to be in trouble.

That's not good for real estate. The high end of the market will still be ok, of course, because the person who can afford to pay millions can probably afford to pay cash. The entry level of the market, though, is going to need credit, and it looks like that is going to be hard to find. So how exactly is the housing market going to rebound without qualified buyers? I'll let the experts on TV figure that one out.

Oh, and I haven't even mentioned the politics. As you may have heard we're in an election year, and Washington is fairly tripping over itself with new ideas on how to save the economy. In this climate even bad ideas are better than no ideas, and don't be surprised if Congress and the new administration manage to over regulate themselves from this mess to an even graver one. Maybe I'm just being a cynic, but as you listen to the proposals that are sure to come out of Washington, ask yourself not "how do I feel about that", but rather "if I was a lender how would I feel about that?"

The problem, after all, is to get the lenders back to lending money, and the more onerous and unprofitable our political leadership can make it for them to lend, the less likely it is that you'll be getting that new mortgage you want. I don't have a crystal ball, but just keep your eyes and ear open over the next 6 months or so and see what happens.

In the meantime, my solution is to just relax and not lose any sleep over this. If you're lucky enough to have no debts and be out of the stock market, then this whole financial crisis doesn't really affect you anyway. Instead, just do what I do - fire up your bike and go for a ride. Winter's coming so enjoy a little sunshine. If your bike isn't running, then watch this little video and take a ride with me instead. Believe me, I know it's a boring video, and I freely admit that the worst aspect of being an amateur photographer is the constant need to force others to feign even the slightest interest. I won't be offended if you decide to skip it, but it's got to be better than sitting around waiting for the world to end.

Or maybe not...




Sunday Ride - California Highway 84

Can You Turn Stop The Cameras While I Google That

One of the wonders of cable TV is that at any hour of the day or night a person can turn on their TV, flip through a few channels, and find himself watching a panel of pundits expounding on the issues of the day. We truly do live in a modern age, and though I don't have the exact figures in, my guess is that for every minute of news we can now get about 59 minutes of analysis - something our parents and grandparents could only dream about.

I happened to catch a panel of pundits on CNN tonight talking about the Sarah Palin interview, with all the usual back and forth. The secret to good punditry, it seems, is to say the most outrageously partisan things in the most gossipy and jovial manner. I think they call it banter, and when done well the audience doesn't even realize that if these people weren't on TV they'd probably all be institutionalized at some quiet retreat with long halls and plastic dinnerware.

Anyway, the analysis of the Palin interview was that these types of things (interviews, debates, etc...) don't really make much of a difference because supporters and detractors will always take what they want from such events with nothing gained one way or the other. Well, if that's true, then why even hold elections in the first place? If the electorate is so predisposed then why not just count up the number of Democrats and Republicans and settle the issue solely on the demographics?

Luckily, the founding fathers didn't listen to pundits and decided instead that matters such as the Presidency should be put to a vote. Good thing too, because despite the apparent contempt that the pundits may have for the voters at large, there still may be those outside the partisan rank and file who actually pay attention to what the candidates say and do.

Not me, of course, although I did watch the interview. Maybe you did too and maybe you even formed an opinion of it. I know I did, and to paraphrase Dorothy Parker, I'd say that Governor Palin's grasp of foreign affairs runs the gamut from A to B. Yeah I know that people vote for Presidents, not Vice Presidents, but still that was not a very impressive performance.

The part that really sticks out in my mind is that little dance she did when Charles Gibson asked her about the Bush Doctrine. I thought it was a totally fair question to ask. After all, the Bush Doctrine is not some arcane piece of trivia buried deep in the past. It is, after all, the entire basis for our involvement in Iraq, and I think it would be helpful if those who would be our nation's leaders were at least acquainted with it. And yes I understand that the Bush Doctrine is probably not relevant to the day-to-day management of the State of Alaska, but she's not running for the governership of Alaska, is she?

At least the interview answered the questions about her foreign policy experience, though unfortunately that answer is none. As for the necessity or relevancy of such experience I can only say that if Senator McCain were President I would feel completely safe knowing he was in charge of our national security, and if Senator Obama were President I would feel somewhat safe knowing he was in charge, provided Senator Biden was in the same room with him. However, if Governaor Palin was President, well...er...it's still early. She still has time to get up to speed.

In all fairness to her, though, she made a much better showing during the last part of the interview when she was discussing energy and energy policy. She did not seem briefed or coached but much more comfortable and in command of her facts . There is no question that she is a very smart and capable woman, and when we see the next part of the interview covering the domestic policy side of things, I expect she'll do much better. Still, her lack of foreign policy expertise is troubling. Fortunately for her, I'm sure the Democrats will show mercy and refrain from exploiting such a glaring weakness.

If not, then she'll just have to hope that the pundits are right and none of this makes any difference.

As A Matter Of Fact

The days when television news separated its' news content from its' editorial content are long gone. Whether on the left or the right, the viewers know that, and all that ancient footage of Eric Sevaraid offering his commentary (always carefully labeled as such) on the Evening News must seem horribly quaint and old -fashioned to the news directors running today's newsrooms. Still, most viewers, being the intelligent creatures they are, have at least some awareness that news and editorial are now one and the same, and so, in its' fashion, the whole system keeps chugging along. An odd result of all this is that as audiences have become skeptical, the ability of the newsroom to influence public opinion may, in fact, be diminished. Does anyone trust the "news" anymore?

Of course that's just a theory of mine, and I only bring it up because of an odd comment I heard on one of our local newscasts (unfortunately, in my dotage, I can't remember which one). While reporting on the Obama campaign, I heard a reporter describe Obama as "a great communicator". Mind you, he didn't say "some have described Obama as a great communicator". He merely said that Obama is a great communicator. Clearly, to my mind at least, that is a matter of opinion, and that it was offered as fact didn't really surprise me as I've come to expect such statements of fact from reporters these days. Later, though, as I thought back on it, I got to wondering - is Obama really a great communicator?

I'm not so sure.

Sure, Obama may be a great speaker, but he is a horrible communicator. Just think about it. After Sarah Palin gave her convention speech, America knew exactly who she was. She was a hockey mom, a governor, a reformer, a proud mother and a loving wife. People across the country knew women just like her. After John McCain gave his speech, America knew exactly who he was. He was a patriot, a maverick, a real stand-up kind of guy. People across America admired a guy like that.

But what about Obama? After years of campaigning and coutless speeches, does America know who he is? For me, there always seems to be this nagging question about just what this guy is really all about. After his convention speech everybody cheered and said "hell of a speech, Barak", but a week later it was hard to recall exactly what he had said. He's a Democrat, of course, and that may get him the Democratic vote, but to Republicans and many Independents he's still this unknown entity - this something that you can't quite get a sense of. Sarah Palin gave just one speech and everybody knew who she was, but Barak Obama...I'm not so sure.

I'm afraid that reporter may have gotten his facts wrong on this one. Given everything that's going on in this country and given the shrinking prospects for the Republican Party, a Democratic nominee should be a shoo-in for the Presidency this year. He should be walking all over the Republicans, and yet Obama is struggling just to stay even. Why is that? The only reasonable explanation I can come up with is that he isn't able to communicate who he is and what his Presidency would offer. People like him, they love to hear him talk, but they just don't seem to know him. There's a big difference between being the candidate of "change" and being the candidate of "trust me, I'm different."

But let's get back to Sarah Palin. How many news reports did I hear about her convention speech where the reporter described her as "passing the test." Again, editorial content reported as news. Not only is her passing or failing a matter of opinion, but this whole idea that her convention speech was "the test" is simply a bunch of crap. Maybe it's just me, but I saw the convention speech as "the audition"; the next couple of months are going to be "the test."

And it's not going to be an easy one, either. She is finally scheduled to give her first interview today, and frankly it's about time. She's had her honeymoon and now it's time to get down to the nitty-gritty. I certainly can't speak for the rest of the country, but I must say that I haven't been much impressed by a candidate who asks to be second-in-line to lead this country, and yet cannot sit down with reporters and answer some tough questions about her qualifications and abilities. If she can't handle the heat of an interview, then what does that say about her ability to handle the much graver challenges of a possible Presidency.

But that should all come to an end starting today. She's scheduled for an interview on ABC, and we'll see how she does. Hopefully there'll be more on the agenda than just private family matters and women's cosmetics. She's young and untested in many areas, and she's made some claims on the campaign trail that many are questioning. I'd like to see some good, tough questioning and maybe then we can all decide if she's passed her "test". The first, I might add, of many tests.

And hey, Ms. Palin, don't start blaming the media. They've all got their opinions, but winning the White House ain't supposed to be easy. At least, not in my opinion.

Father Knows Best

"Uh, dad, can we talk to you for a second?"

"Sure. What's up?"

"Nothing...we just have something we need to talk to you about, that's all."

"Well...ok, just let me get cleaned up a little first. Where's your mother?"

"I thnk she's in the kitchen."

(Dad leaves the room. The two kids are left alone)

"What are you going to tell him?"

"I don't know. I'll think of something."

"He's going to be mad."

"No he's not, and besides, we have to tell him. He's gonna find out anyway."

"You and your stupid friends. I can't believe I listened to you."

"They're not my friends, and you're the one who said we should do it."

"Did not."

"Did so."

"Did not. It was your stupid idea."

"Was not."

"Was so."

"Was not..."

(Dad reenters the room)

"Okay then, what did you want to talk to me about?"

"Well...um..."

"Yes? What is it? Did something happen at school today?"

"No, nothing like that. It's just that..."

"C'mon Freddie, I haven't got all day. What did you want to talk to me about? Fannie? What is it?"

"Well you see dad, Freddie and I were wondering if...if..."

"If what?"

"If maybe somehow you might want to give us an advance on our allowance."

"An advance? Do you need some money for school? I'll give it to you. You don't need to spend your allowance."

"No, it's not that."

"Well then, what is it? What do you need the money for?"

"Nothing."

"Nothing? It's got to be something?"

"We'll pay you back and all. I mean, we already told mom we'd clean the house and she said ok, and we'll even do the laundry if we have to. We promise."

"Uh-huh. I see. Well that's certainly nice of you two to offer to help your mother out around the house, but I'm a little surprised at this sudden outburst of industriousness and responsibility."

"We want to do it. Honest."

"Fannie, there's something you're not telling me. C'mon now, why do you two need an advance on your allowance? Tell me the truth."

"What do you mean?"

"Fannie - I asked you what's the money for."

"Can't you just give it to us?"

"Are you two in some kind of trouble?"

"No, it's nothing like that."

"Freddie? Are you in some kind of trouble?"

"No...I mean not really...I mean...we kind of owe some people some money, that's all."

"Kind of owe which people some money?"

"These banker guys. You know, foreigners and pension plan guys."

"Foreigners and pension plan guys? Why do you owe foreigners and pension plan guys money?"

"Umm..."

"Freddie - I asked you a question."

"Well...you see...we had to borrow some money from these foreigners and pension plan guys so that we could loan it to some mortgage guys."

"You what? Ok, let's back up here. First tell me how much money you owe these people?"

"I don't know. About (mumble) dollars."

"What? I didn't catch that. How much do you owe?"

"About 15 trillion dollars, I guess."

"About 15 trillion dollars you 'guess', but you don't know."

"Not really. It's complicated."

(Fannie interrupts)

"It's not that much dad. Freddie's just being a moron. Most of that money's going to be paid back. We don't really owe that much."

"Well then Fannie, why don't you enlighten me. If it's not 15 trillion dollars then how much do you owe?"

"I'm not sure. It all depends. If the money we lent to the mortgage people gets paid back then we won't owe anything 'cause we'll be making money. You see?"

"No I don't see. Why are you lending people money in the first place? And where did you get 15 trillion dollars?"

"We got it from these foreigners and pension plan guys, and we use the money to buy loans from the mortgage guys who lend it to people so they can buy houses. Then we guarantee and sell the loans we buy to more foreigners and pension plan guys and pocket a little for ourselves."

"Then what's the problem?"

"The problem is that some of that money got lent to people who couldn't really pay it back."

"You lent money to people who couldn't pay it back?"

"Sort of."

"I don't understand. Why did you lend money to people who can't pay it back?"

"It was Freddie's idea."

(Freddie stands up)

"Was not my idea."

"Was so."

"Was not. Dad, Fannie's lying."

"Am not."

"Are so."

(Dad's had enough)

"That's enough! Now both of you sit down. Right now!"

(They quiet down. Dad continues.)

"I don't care who's idea it was. You took money from foreigners and pension plan guys and gave it to people who couldn' pay it back, and now you've got to find some money to pay back the people you borrowed from. Right?"

"..."

"Right?"

"Sort of."

"No, not 'sort of'. That's exactly what you did, and now you want me to help you clean up this mess. Right?"

"..."

"Well, I've got news for you. As far as I'm concerned you're responsible for what's happened and it's up to you, not me, to fix it. You hear me? That's your responsibility. I want you to go talk to your foreigners and pension plan guys and tell them you're sorry but you might not be able to pay them back the money you owe. Explain what happened, just like you did to me. They won't like it, but things like this happen sometimes. Afterwards, maybe you can think of some way to make it up to them. In the meantime, I don't want either one of you to make any more loans or borrow any more money. Is that clear?"

"Yeah, ok, but..."

"But what?"

"But...it's just that...you see...we kind of promised."

"Promised what?"

"We promised them if we couldn't pay the money back that they could bill you for what they were owed."

"They could bill me?"

"Yeah. We promised. We had to. They wouldn't have lent us the money if we didn't."

"Oh they wouldn't. Well isn't that just too damn bad. Sorry boys and girls, but I never promised them anything. If they want to collect anything from me then they can talk to my lawyer. Capiche? You tell them I'm not paying them a dime."

"But you can't do that."

"Oh yeah, just watch me."

"No, I mean you can't do that."

"What do you mean I can't do that?"

"Because we're your kids. They said that makes you, you know, responsible."

"Who said?"

"Everybody. You see dad, half the mortgages in the country wouldn't get made if it weren't for our, I mean 'your' guarantee. Everyone knows that. If you don't make sure the foreigners and pension plan guys get paid, then the whole housing market could collapse."

"Are you crazy? Are the both of you out of your flippin' minds? You think I've got 15 trillion dollars just laying around the house that I can pay to a bunch of foreigners and pension plan guys because my kids decided to go out and start lending money to people who can't pay it back? Are you out of your flippin' minds?"

"You don't have to pay back the entire 15 trillion. Most of the loans are good."

"Oh. 'Most of the loans are good'. That's great. I don't feel so bad now. Gee, and I was getting worried there for a minute."

"You don't have to get sarcastic."

"I'll get as sarcastic as I damn well please. I'm still your father you know."

"..."

"Tell me something, if your so sure I won't have to pay back the entire 15 trillion then exactly how much will I have to pay?"

"We told you. We don't know for sure."

"Well, Fannie, then why don't you give me your best guess."

"Maybe only about 200 billion or so."

"Oh. Maybe only 200 billion or so? Is that all? Why didn't you say so in the first place? No problem. No problemioso. Let me just check underneath the sofa cushions for some loose change."

"You're mad at us, aren't you?"

"..."

"We're sorry."

"You bet your little behinds your sorry, but not nearly as sorry as your gonna be when you get finished paying this money back. And you are going to pay me back. You hear what I'm saying to you. From now on I own you and you're going to pay me back every last penny."

"It won't be 200 billion. It probably won't even be close. That's just worst case."

"Let's see. How much is your allowance? 20 bucks a week. If you pay me back 20 dollars a week then you should have this paid back in, hmm, around 19 billion years. How's that sound? Does 19 billion years sound right to you?"

"Daaaaaad...."

"You think I'm kidding? You think this is some kind of a joke? Ok, how about if both of you just skip your suppers tonight and go straight up to your rooms instead. That way maybe the hunger pains can help you focus on figuring out how you're gonna come up with 200 billion dollars to pay me back."

"That isn't fair."

"What isn't fair? This?"

"We didn't do anything wrong. We were just trying to help people."

"Help people? By lending them money they couldn't pay back? You weren't helping them, you were taking advantage of them. There's a big difference Fannie. Maybe when you're sitting up there in your room you can think about that a little too."

"We didn't know they weren't going to pay it back. Anyway, it was the mortgage people who lent them the money. We just bought the loans."

"I don't care. You should have known. You should have known what you were buying. Ignorance is no excuse. You hear me? You hear what I just said?"

"Yeah, we heard you."

"What did I say?"

"Ignorance is no excuse."

"That's right. Geez, what a mess. How could you be so dumb?"

"..."

"Taking trillions of dollars from people and lendng it to people who couldn't pay it back. What were you thinking?"

"..."

"Wait till I tell your mother. She's not going to be happy. Is she?"

"..."

"No, she's going to be spittin' mad. For crying out loud, how could you do something like this? Huh? Why didn't you ask me before you started lending these people money? You could have asked me first before you started throwing all this money around. Didn't you think of that?"

"..."

"Up to your room - both of you. And let's just hope you learned a valuable lesson from all this."

"We're sorry."

"I know you are, but you've got to learn to be more careful."

"We will be."

"Go on. And if any of your friends call you can tell 'em you're both grounded. Is that clear?"

"Yes."

"Ok."

"Dad?"

"What."

"There is one more thing."

"What's that?"

"We both had contracts. You know, employment contracts."

"So?"

"So, if you're going to ground us you have to pay us our severance."

"For what?"

"For our hard work and stewardship."

"And just how much is that worth?"

"Well, Freddie gets 14 million dollars and I get 9. It's only fair."

"You think that's fair?"

"It's in our contracts."

"Well, I'll tell you what. How about I throw both of you in the river. That way, as your next of kin, that money would come to me. That would be fair, wouldn't it, seeing as I'm paying all this money to bail you out."

"Oh dad..."

"..."

"You're not serious are you?"

(exasperated sigh) "Don't worry, you'll get your 25 million. After all, it's in your contract."

"Thanks dad. You're the best."

"What's fair is fair. That's what Dad's are for."

What Hath God Wrought

I don't normally write about video games, and not because I know nothing about them, but simply because I never play them. Oh, I've played them before, but that was a long time ago, and I realize other people play them and that's fine.


Now, having said all that, anyone who has ever read this blog must certainly know by now that not knowing what I'm talking about has never stopped me from offering an opinion, and so I want to talk about this new game that is being released next Sunday called Spore. I've never seen it nor played it, but I know that for about the past 5 years it has been one of the gaming world's most hotly anticipated games.

Spore is the latest creation of Will Wright, the video gaming genius behind the mega-selling "Sims" franchise (which in and of itself speaks highly of the game's market potential), and, as I understand it, the idea of Spore is that the player attempts to take a lowly single cell protozoa and evolve it through gameplay into a highly intelligent being that colonizes the Universe.

Keep in mind that Will Wright is a game designer, not a microbiologist, so the educational potential of Spore is likely to be low. Parents shouldn't be confused into thinking that playing 500 hours of Spore will get their child into Harvard Medical School. From what I can tell so far, Spore will be less like science and more like Intelligent Design. That is, the player will be given a small opportunity to play God and evolve a species.

Interesting idea, huh, evolving your own species and all. C'mon, honestly haven't you ever found yourself peering into a microscope and quietly wondering quietly what your life would be like if you had been born an amoeba - feeling the things an amoeba feels, thinking the thoughts an amoeba thinks? I've got to admit I'm a little intrigued. Just what do amoebae think about? Lacking brains it can't be anything too deep. They swim, they eat, and every now and then when they're feeling lonely they unchain their genes and split down the middle. A pretty self-absorbed existence, if you ask me; one best suited to either movie stars or bloggers. Now that would be the scenario I'd like to play - to see if I could evolve the lowly amoeba into Sylvester Stallone.

Actually, I don't have a clue how this game will play, but it's an interesting premise. According to the website, Spore will be available for Windows and Mac and the graphics requirements aren't too steep so most recently purchased computer should be able to run it. Like I said, I'm not a gamer so I think I'll wait for the reviews to come out before I plunk down any cash. If it lives up to the hype, though, it sounds like it might be fun.

And while we're on the subject of science and technology I just have one more thing I'd like to mention. I bought a little portable USB mouse for my laptop the other day, and while that usually wouldn't merit a mention even in a blog as useless as this one, I did notice one thing. Isn't it strange that here we are almost 9 years into the 21st century, and still no one has managed to invent a package that is incapable of being opened?

Think about it. We've split the atom, we've mapped the human genome, and yet we still haven't invented the totally unopenable package. Not that we haven't tried. The plastic packaging that my USB mouse came in was certainly a valiant effort, but with the aid of a blow torch and a couple of hand grenades even that was ultimately openable.

There is clearly much more to be done in this area.

Vox Populi

"What's that?"

"What?"

"That."

"You mean this?"

"Yeah."

"It's called a newspaper."

"A what?"

"A newspaper. Haven't you ever seen a newspaper before?"

"I dunno...Hey, did you see the speech?"

"Yeah, I saw it."

"Pretty historic, huh? Man, after that speech I don't even want to hear what that old guy's gonna say. I mean, I don't need to hear it. You know what I mean?"

"Are you new or something? Man, that guy's just feeding us the same old bullshit that they all do. Saying how he's gonna do this and do that, and they don't ever do none of it. Like if he's elected President he's gonna cure cancer or turn sewer water into gasoline or something. I can't believe you bought into that shit."

"No way, man. This guy's different. He's gonna be our first black President."

"So?"

"So? What are you talking about? You don't think a black man can be President?"

"I didn't say that."

"Yeah you did. You're a racist, man, that's what you are."

"Screw you, man. I didn't say anything about a black man can't be President. You're the one talking about race."

"You don't think a black man can be President?"

"Sure he can, but that don't mean he's gonna be a good President just because he's black."

"Yeah, right, whatever man. I know who I'm voting for. That old guy wants to start a nuclear war and throw poor people out in the street, talking like it's not the government's problem. Well then who's problem is it, huh?"

"Since when did you start caring about politics? You never even voted before."

"Well this time it's different. I got to get involved, you know. The people have got to rise up and take action. It's our time, you know...Hey, I think I saw one of those things before."

"What? You mean a newspaper?"

"Yeah, over at my grandma's house. She had one of those. I can't remember what she used it for, though. I think she used to wrap fish in it or something."

"You never read a newspaper before."

"Nah, c'mon. That's old people stuff. Let me see it."

"Sure."

"How does it work?"

"It doesn't 'work', you just read it."

"You just read it? Are you serious? How are you supposed to post comments or links or things like that?"

"You just read it."

"That's some messed up shit, man. You know what I like to do? I like to read something then go down into the comments and post something like 'You suck' or something like that. Man, it pisses 'em off when you do stuff like that."

"Well, you just read a newspaper."

"That's messed up."

"Don't you care what's happening in the world?"

"Yeah, I care. I follow the news, but I don't read boring crap like this newspaper thingy. I read about the things I care about, you know?"

"Like what?"

"I dunno, cool stuff, you know. Like that guy who put a Bic lighter in his microwave and the thing exploded and burned his house down. Did you read about that? What a dumbshit."

"That's what you care about?"

"No, I read about Iraq and stuff like that. How the government's sending people over there to die just so Dick Cheney and his oil friends can get rich. I know what's going on."

"Oh really? But how do you know it's true?"

"Give me a break. What? Do you think we're really over there to fight terrorists when there weren't even any terrorists over there till we arrived."

"No, I mean if you pick and choose only the news that you want to read then how do you know that what you're reading is true? If you're only interested in hearing the same old sermon, then how do you know that the preacher isn't lying?"

"I know when something's bullshit or not, ok? Just because I don't read newspapers that doesn't mean I'm stupid. And besides, I don't get all my news from the internet. I watch TV and things like that."

"No, it doesn't make you stupid - it makes you narrow. You said it yourself. You don't even want to hear what the other guy's gonna say."

"I already know what he's gonna say. I'm not gonna waste my time watching that crap."

"Did you see those May Day parades they had in Moscow?"

"What?"

"I think it was on Youtube."

"So what?"

"Russia's been making lots of money lately on account of all this oil and natural gas they've got and you know what they've been doing with that money? They've been rearming. That parade was pretty impressive. Tanks, missile launchers, troops - all kinds of stuff. When I was watching that speech for some reason I just started to think about that."

"So you're saying if Obama gets elected then the Russians are going to come over here and kick our ass? That's a bunch of bull."

"No, I'm saying that everybody is saying that Obama is the next JFK, so, ok. JFK was young and inexperienced and when he was elected a lot of people around the world percieved him as being weak. That's a big reason why Khruschev built those missile bases in Cuba. The Russians wanted to test JFK and they were pretty sure that if push came to shove he would back down. He didn't, of course, but you gotta think the Russians are looking at Obama and wondering what he'd do in the same situation. I mean, you don't build a huge military machine just to look pretty in the May Day parade."

"What the hell are you talking about. Who the hell is Khruschev?"

"I'm not saying it would be one way or the other. I just think it would be ironic that if confronted by the Russians, maybe this time it would be the U.S. that would back down. Maybe pull our missles out of Poland or something like that. It'll probably never happen, but...I don't know."

"Yeah, well maybe if that old guy gets elected then he'll back down too."

"No, I don't think so. I mean his wife's over in Georgia right now. Sure, it's all for 'humanitarian' purposes, but it's also pretty in your face. The Russians know how McCain would react. I guess that's why Western Europe is so gung-ho for Obama. The last thing they want is a confrontation with the East or another Cold War."

"A 'what' war? So what if Obama backs down, we're better off making friends than enemies. No more of this Iraq shit, or maybe you think we should just blow each other up."

"It's all just hypothetical."

"Here, you can have this back."

"Don't you want to finish reading it?"

"Yeah right. I can't believe people actually used to read these things. What a dumb idea. Why waste a bunch of trees when you can just post it online?"

"These things won't be around much longer anyways, so I wouldn't worry about it. Pretty soon they'll be in museums in little glass cases with signs next to them explaning to people what they were. Kind of sad really."

"Kind of dumb if you ask me. It' not even Web 1.0. No video, no audio, no comments - what can you get from one of these that you can't get online."

"The stuff you don't want to know about."

"I gotta go. We've got a couple of the VC's coming in after lunch and I've got to show 'em how wisely we're using all that seed money they gave us. It's a pain but they're pretty cool about it. I'll see you later."

"Sure you don't want to take this with you?"

"No thanks. Ah hell, why not. I was thinking about swinging by the fish market after work anyway. It might come in handy."

"I got to be going too. Shoot me an email and let me know how the meeting went."

"Will do, and try not to worry too much about the Russians invading Poland or something, ok?"

"And don't go sticking your lighter in the microwave. See 'ya."

Just Another Cheap Thrill

Now that they've finally captured Bigfoot, there are really only a few great mysteries left to ponder - who are we, where did we come from, and, of course, what kind of crazy scoring system are they using for those Olympic boxing matches. Five judges sitting around pressing little buttons, and if they don't press 'em then you don't score. Talk about a system just asking to be abused (not that anyone would ever accuse boxing officials of dirty dealings). It's so bad that I heard one of the announcers wonder if it would be possible for one boxer to knock the other one out and still not score a point.

In Olympic boxing, believe me, it's possible.

But let's not worry about that now. What's done is done. I thought instead what I'd like to do is take a few moments to talk about this video camera I bought. This has absolutely nothing to do with boxing, of course, but it is something to blog about.

First, just let me say that I'm no "tech expert". In fact, even though a lot of people call themselves "tech experts" I'll bet that there are maybe only a dozen or so people in the world who really fit the description. Just because the local news anchor says "and now for a report on this new whiz-bang electronic wonder, here's our tech expert Johnny Kool with all the details", that doesn't mean Johnny's really an expert.

As far as I'm concerned, people who do reviews or reports on new products aren't "experts", they're "consultants". That is, they have some knowledge about something or some experience on how to do something and they're here to pass that knowledge on to others. Some might call them "teachers", but I think of them more as "consultants". Either way they certainly aren't "experts".

So like I said, I'm no "tech expert", but I can tell you a little about this thing from Oregon Scientific called the "ATC3k" - a video camera I bought which has the singular distinction of being (a) waterproof and (b) shock resistant and (c) extremely cheap (like me). I bought the camera so I could record some of my bike rides, and it comes with lots of different mounting options for the helmet, wrist and handlebars. That's the good part.

The bad part is the wobble. I've searched around the web and read all kinds of explanations for it, but for whatever reason the video you get from this camera has a serious case of the wobbles. Some say it's the shutter, some say it's the CCD's, some say it's the compression algorithm done inside the camera, but all agree the camera simply can't handle fast moving objects. I never expected to get Hollywood quality video from a cheap little camera like this, but I certainly wasn't prepared for the wobble.

To show you what I'm talking about I'm posting this video of one of my recent rides. The video has been heavily compressed for the web so the picture quality isn't actually as bad as you see here, but even as poor as it looks you still can't miss the wobble as it ripples its way up and down the screen.

I also muted the video so you don't have to listen to that annoying wind noise you get from in-camera microphones. An option to attach an external mike that could be shielded from the wind would be nice, but you're not going to find that in this price range. The usual procedure for on-bike video is to mute the sound and add some background music, so that's what I've done.

Please take a look and see what you think. I'm no tech expert but I'd say that this camera sucks.



Sunday Ride from Tony Myers on Vimeo.

The Audacity of Blog

Where else but on a blog could the average Joe sit down in front of a computer and singlehandedly solve all the world's problems? The power of this new technology is simply amazing. Global warming got you down? Just ask a blogger - he's got the answers. Want to know the best way to run your business? The blogger hasn't been born who doesn't know the best way for other people to conduct their affairs. No doubt about it. Blogging is the miracle of our times, and attributable, I suppose, only to the fact that there are millions of people scattered across the globe with nothing better to do.

I do a bit of blogging myself, and being the moody, ruminating sort I too have been known to volunteer opinions neither sought nor welcomed. It's a selfish sort of thing, of course, or rather a self-absorbed sort of thing, but having no other serious vices I suppose a blog or two offers little chance of being my ruination. With that in mind I thought I'd do my part and offer up some of my ideas for solving the world's problems.

The problem at the top of most people's list seems to be the price of gas, and wouldn't you know it, I just happen to have a solution. Actually it's quite a brilliant solution, and as we are in the middle of a presidential race I think it's a solution that would work equally well for the Democrats or Republicans. My solution, you see, is predicated on these two theses, namely 1) Sen. Phil Gramm was right and high gas prices are really just a figment of our imaginations and 2) Americans are terrible at math.

The solution, you see, is simple. All we have to do is what the rest of the world is already doing. Instead of selling gasoline by the gallon, we sell it by the liter. I did a rough calculation and gas selling for $4.50 a gallon would sell for only $1.20 per liter (Did I say gas? Sorry, I meant "petrol"). All the next president has to do is make the changeover and he can quite rightly proclaim that since taking office he has reduced the price of gas from $4.50 to $1.20, and before you can say "let me check those numbers" America will be right back at the dealership buying up those Lincoln Navigators and Chevy Tahoes. The voters are happy, the oil companies are happy, and Detroit is happy. I call that a win-win-win.

Okay, now that the energy crisis is solved let's move on to the next challenge. This is a big one. It's the housing crisis. I saw a guy on the news today who said that if his candidate is elected he'll push for new bankruptcy laws that will allow the bankruptcy courts to set aside mortgages. I'm trying to be non-judgemental and non-partisan here so I won't name the candidate (Obama), but that's a hell of an idea, and I'm more than a little disappointed that I didn't think of it myself. As I understand it, under this plan you go to the bank, they lend you a half-million dollars or so you can buy a house, you buy the house, you file for bankruptcy, the judge sets aside the mortgage, and then you get to keep the house without having to pay the money back. Now that's a great idea. It's no wonder that America loves this Obama guy.

Personally, I think the banks probably won't be making many loans under those circumstances, but I still like the thinking behind it. I might suggest a little improvement, however. Instead of forcing people to file for bankruptcy and ruining their credit records (would you take a free house if you knew it was going to ruin your credit record - me too), why not just cut out the middleman. I mean we've got all these empty houses just sitting around, so why not just have the government give them to people. It could be like the 21st century version of the Homestead Act. You go down to the county clerk's office and file your claim, and the house is yours. Home ownership is good for America, right? If we keep making people pay for their houses then some people are never going to be able to afford one.

Problem solved.

Let's see, what's next. How about the Health Care crisis? That's an easy one too. First we need some historical perspective though. You see, back in the old days we used to have this thing called "inflation" that was measured by an index called the CPI, or Consumer Price Index. The CPI had been around since around 1919 and was used to measure changes in the prices of things. That was fine until the 1970's when we had our first "oil crisis". A cartel of oil producing countries decided to cutback their oil shipments and the price of gas shot through the roof (does anyone remember gas lines and "odd and even" days?). Unfortunately, not only did the oil shortage inflict the Ford Pinto and the Chevy Vega on us, it also triggered a round of inflation that by the 1980's took the CPI to around 20%.

Well, that wouldn't do so somewhere it was decided that in order to get prices under control we needed to make some changes to the CPI. What happened next is something we now call the core inflation rate. The core inflation rate, we were told, was more accurate than the CPI because it didn't track prices that were deemed "volatile" like energy prices or food prices. The government liked the new core inflation rate best of all because it was substantially less than the CPI and significantly reduced the amounts it had to pay for entitlements programs that linked to the inflation rate.

So that's why nowadays when people are shopping at thrift stores and taking out payday loans at 400% interest just so they can put some gas in the tank and maybe buy a box of cereal, the government can happily report that prices are stable and inflation is a mere tenths of a percent. What's even better is that now our economists have come up with a newer way to measure to inflation that reduces the numbers even more the core inflation rate. It's called the PCE, and is based on the notion that when the price of something goes up, people will buy a cheaper alternative rather than pay the higher price. For example, when the price of, say, laundry detergent goes up, people tend not to buy laundry detergent anymore but will just go down to the river and use a rock instead. Therefore you can't say that the price of laundry detergent is inflationary because nobody is buying it. Pretty smart, huh?

The reason I'm mention all this is simply because I think we can use the same logic and apply it to the health care system. If people can't afford prescription drugs anymore because the cost is too high, then simply don't include it in health care costs. Likewise if people can't afford health insurance or hospitalization, cross 'em off the list. I think you'll find if you eliminate these and other volatile items from the health care equation, the cost of health care will be substantially reduced. With enough adjustment to the numbers, I think we can bring down health care costs to no more than the price of a Band-aid. Remembering once again America's poor math skills and I'd say the health care crisis would be solved.

I could go on but I think that's enough for today. Besides, solving the energy, housing and health care crises is more than enough for any blog.

The Ride So Far

It's been a year this week since I took my MSF Basic Riding Course and got my motorcycle license, so now you're probably wondering what kind of advice a noob like me can pass along to those other noobs still on the BRC waiting list. Well, since I'm still learning I don't know what advice I can give, but I'll do my best.

"Dear Noob,

With the price of gas being so high I was thinking about saving some money by two-wheeling it. What do you think? Do I really need to take the MSF course? Would a 900 - 1000 cc sportbike be a good bike for a beginner?

motogpwannabe
Decatur, IL"

Well wannabe, you're doing the right thing by asking a stranger on the internet for advice. To answer your question, no you don't need to take the MSF course to learn to ride. Why I remember in the old days all you did was ask an uncle or a friend to take you out to the local parking lot and give you the instruction you needed. Just remember to wear a helmet. As for your second question, I think a liter class sportbike would be an excellent bike to learn on. Just look at this video and see how easy it is.





"Dear Noob,

I saw that video you posted, but I don't want to go racing. I'm an older guy and I just want to get a nice looking bike so that I can cruise and feel virile again. I cashed out my stock options and was wondering - do I need the MSF course? I saw this really cool looking Harley the other day and I think it would make the perfect beginners bike. What do you think?

checkmeout
Covina, CA"

Well checkmeout, I wouldn't bother with the training if I were you. After all, riding a Harley is just like riding a bicycle, only it's 700 pounds heavier and has an extra 100 or so horsepower. If all you're going to do is cruise, then I say go for it. Just look at this guy - fully dressed and ready to go (the bike I mean, not the rider).




And finally this last letter:

"Dear Noob,

I've read that with the all the new riders on the streets today, the number of motorcycle accidents is rising fast. Is motorcycling safe? I'd like to start riding myself but I don't know where to start. Some people say that it's better to start riding on a smaller bike that will be easier to handle and will keep me out of trouble, but other people tell me to get a big bike that I won't grow out of once I learn to ride. What's your advice?

normalguy
Denver, CO"

I can't tell you what to buy, normalguy. I started out on a small bike, but there are plenty of people out there who learned on bigger bikes and never had a problem. It's true that a small bike with less weight and less power can keep you out of trouble in certain circumstances, but that doesn't necessarily make it a "safe" bike. I've only been riding a year so I can't really say what makes a bike "safe", but I think that for the the most part safety has more to do with the person sitting in the saddle than it does with the bike. Any bike can be ridden safely, and any bike can be ridden stupidly.

Whatever you're going to ride, my advice would be to get some professional instruction before you go out and start shopping. Not your uncle or your brother, but someone who's job it is to teach noobs like you and me how to safely ride a motorcycle. After you take the course you'll have a better idea of what sort of bike you can handle, or you may even decide not to ride a bike at all.

I'm going to post this last video just for you normalguy. The other two videos were on the humerous side, but this one is dead serious. Other than some scrapes and bruises and a broken leg, the guys on the first two videos ended up relatively okay. Unfortunately, one of the guys in this video ended up dead. (WARNING! This video is not for the squeamish - you've been warned).

The situation is so typical of a Sunday ride. Twisty two lane highway, heavy traffic, and lots of bikers out riding. The guy shooting the video has a camera mounted to his bike, and he's all set to record his nice little cruise up in the mountains on his fine machine. He's going along pretty uneventfully at a nice, easy pace until suddenly he's passed by another rider twisting and weaving through traffic on his hot little ride. Now it's no more Mr. Nice Guy for our camera biker. His racer blood is boiling, and the next thing you know he's into the throttle and hellbent to show the little twerp that he's got a pretty hot little ride himself.

Problem is, camera biker doesn't have the skills he thinks he does. It's pretty obvious just by watching the video that he's in deep doodoo and trying to ride way beyond his limits, but he's got a fast bike and he's not going to let anyone show him up. You can predict the outcome. When it was all over, our camera biker wound up in the hospital, and another guy wound up dead. So, was that the bike's fault?



Even though I have a year's worth of riding and about 7,000 miles under my belt now, I know I''m still a newbie. I just try to become a better rider every time I ride, and if I never remember anything else from the MSF course I'll always remember their two most important lessons:

One: Search, Evaluate, and Execute - always keep an eye out for trouble and have a plan for getting out of trouble if trouble comes. Assume your invisible and stay alert.

Two: Ride within your limits - if you watched the last video you'll understand why. That video says is all.

Get some instruction and remember those two rules, and you should be okay normalguy. And don't forget to enjoy yourself. No one would argue the point that cars are safer than bikes, but then again they aren't nearly as much fun. Just remember that safety starts with that gray stuff between your ears, and don't forget that for every idiot you come across there are perhaps a hundred or more sane folk who've been riding for years and loving every moment of it. Call it the the luck of the draw, but you know maybe sometimes we make our own luck. Either way, the BRC and some common sense has kept me safe so far (knock on wood).

Top 5 Things You Should Do In These Troubled Times

With food and energy prices soaring, we all need to do some belt-tightening these days. But what to do? To help you get through these troubling times, Dead Cat asked our consumer reporter (that would be me) to offer up his top 5 money saving ideas.


1. Steal Donuts from the break room:

Your boss is a nice guy, so every Friday he brings in a box of donuts for the staff to enjoy. Well here's an idea that can save you hundreds of dollars on your next grocery bill. When Friday comes around, get to the office a little early and wait in the parking lot for the boss to arrive. When you see him, say a friendly hello and offer to take the donuts up to the break room. He'll be glad for the help. When he hands you the box, tell him you forgot something in your car, and then after he leaves place the donuts in a paper bag and stash them in your trunk.

Be careful to leave one or two of the donuts in the box before taking it up to the break room. That way when he sees the almost empty box he won't think the donuts have been stolen, but just assume that the staff wolfed 'em all down and left none for anyone else except a couple of the crappy ones.

Although it may not seem like much, there are enough calories in the average box of donuts to feed a family of four for an entire summer.


2. Take the train instead:

It's no secret that the fuel prices are higher than they've ever been before. Most of us would like to cut back on our gasoline usage, but we've still got jobs we have to get to and places we have to go. Is there some other more fuel-efficient means to travel? Sure there is, and it can be found in every city and county of America.

It' called the freight train, and for well over a hundred years people like Woody Guthrie and Steam Train Maury have hitching rides back and forth all across this great nation of ours. Don't worry about the price or the mileage, just hop aboard. There's no waiting in line and no ticket to buy, and as energy experts will tell you, trains are still our most energy-efficient means of motorized transportation.

That's great you say, but how do I get started. First, check with your local rail yard and see if they have a list of freight trains that will be running through your area. Also find out if they have a map showing the rail lines that connect the areas that your interested in travelling to. Look for sharp bends and steep uphill climbs as these will be the easiest place for you to hop on board. Then, just bundle up some clothes and tie them up in a bandana, attach it to the end of a pole and you're ready to travel.

3. Save on cleaning supplies:

Along with everything else, the cost of cleaning supplies keeps rising. All those disinfectants, tile scrubbers, stain removers, countertop cleaners, air fresheners, etc... can really put a dent in the household budget. Well why not take a tip from that bachelor friend of yours. He's savings money because instead of wasting countless hours scrubbing and washing only to have to do the very same thing all over again next week, he just don't bother.

After all, as most undomesticated males can tell you, that black grime building up on your floors, sinks and countertops may look unsightly, but it probably won't kill you. Those bathtub stains may make your skin crawl, but they aren't fatal. That putrid stench rising up from the garbage piled up under the sink may be unpleasant at first, but only if you forget to hold your breath. By just letting nature take it's course, you will not only save on cleaning supplies, but lower your water and electricity costs as well. Relax, have a beer, and save money in the process.

4. Saving on that next vacation:

Summer's here and it's time once again for that dream vacation. I mean the neighbors dream vacation, of course, not yours. You can't afford a vacation this year. Well, you could afford a vacation, but only one that doesn't involve flying, driving or eating. No, looks like you'll be stuck at home while the neighbors are out on their Polynesian cruise, so why not use their absence to do a little savings while they're gone.

Chances are the neighbors won't be taking their pet along with them on vacation, so why not offer to watch little fluffy or fido for them while they're away? They'll be relieved to have someone close by to watch their pet, and you can use the oppurtunity to ask for their housekey in case an emergency should arise. Then, as soon as they leave, shut down the water and electricty at your house, and go move into theirs.

Forget about paying the utilities. It's their bill, not yours. No more of this turning the air conditioning off. Turn that sucker on, and leave it on - the lights too. Turn on every light in the house and leave them on day and night, take 45 minute showers, run a hose from their yard to yours and water your lawn as much as you like - make it look like the Everglades if you want to. If they've got a pool, crank up that heater and have a pool party. Call up a caterer and have them send the bill to your neighbors address. Live it up. While they're having their vacation, have a little vacation of your own.

Finally, when the neighbors return home, don't admit to anything.

"Say Bob, you know it's the strangest thing. While we were away in Tahiti, our utility bill almost tripled."

"Yours too? Man, I thought it was just us. These utility rates are ridiculous, aren't they?"

5. Children are our most precious asset:

They never listen, they're always mouthing off, they think they know everything, they won't stop fighting...yes, our children are precious to us. But aren't there times when you'd like to be able to just sit down with your kids, as a family, without any of the distractions or the hustle and bustle of daily life, and...

wring their little necks.

No, I'm kidding of course. You don't want to harm your children, but what if you could sell them instead? Pawn 'em off on some poor, unsuspecting couple and let 'em drive someone else crazy for a while. Well, that's what couples in third world nations have been doing for centuries. By selling their children to unscrupulous middlemen, they not only get a cash payment up front, but save thousands and thousands of dollars on the care and feeding of the ungrateful little buggers.

And what a valuable life lesson you'll be passing on to your kids as well. As they spend then next 5, 10, or even 20 years of their lifes in indentured servitude, down on their knees scrubbing some rich woman's floors, perhaps then they'll finally start to appreciate how good they had it. Perhaps then they'll learn to have a little respect for the mother and father who provided for them all those years (the ungrateful little buggers). Money in your pocket and a valuable life lesson as well. It's a win-win situation for both parent and child.

The Green PC

I love a financial panic, don't you? Yeah, there's nothing like the sight of an angry mob breaking down the doors to the bank to put a little drama in your life - like something out of those old Hollywood movies. The most amazing thing to me, though, isn't the lines of people, it's that there are actually people in this country who still have any money left in the bank. Geez, after gassing up the car and paying for my groceries, I'm pretty well tapped out.

And what's even more amazing is that in this new electronic age there are still people who go to the bank at all. Maybe it's just me but I always assumed that pretty much everybody does their banking online these days. Well, maybe not. Apparently a lot of people are doing their banking the old fashioned way - they get in their cars and drive to the bank and fill out their little deposit/withdrawal slips and go stand in line - just like grandma and grandpa used to do.

That's so weird.

You know, people, you don't have to do that anymore. They have these things called ATM's now, and direct deposit and the internet and all kinds of neat stuff. If you want to take your money out of one bank and move it to another, you can even do this thing called an ACH transfer and the banks take care of it all electronically. It's so much easier than grabbing a baseball bat and running down to the bank to demand your money back.

Anyway, I must be out of step because I have at least a half dozen bank accounts and I haven't set foot in a bank in years. No, that's not true. I did have to go into my Credit Union to open a checking account, but then Credit Unions always seem to be a bit behind when it comes to new technologies. Other than that I don't think I'd know what the inside of a bank looks like. Do they still give you cookies? Do they still run passbooks through big noissy machines that stamp your balance on little pink pages?

I just did a google search and according to a 2006 study the percentage of online banking customers back in 2005 was around 40%. Hmm, I guess I was wrong. It looks like most people do still do their banking the old fashioned way. Go figure. Maybe people don't know about this thing called electronic banking. You know maybe...just maybe...this would be an opportunity for me to actually post something useful to this blog. Wouldn't that be something? No guarantees mind you, but why not give it a try.

Let me start by telling you about this guy I saw on the news. He had a CD with Indymac Bank for around $220,000, and when Indymac went belly up he was only able to recover about $170,000 of his deposit. He may get more in the future, but that's all he's gotten so far. Clearly, that guy was doing his banking under the old "sit down at the desk, open an account, get your little book stamped (and ask if they have any cookies)" model. Mind you, there's no law that says you can't do it that way, but you see what can happen.

Nowadays, you have other options. If he had come to me with his money and sought my advice I would have sold him some life insurance. No, no, I'm just kidding. I would have shown him how CD investing works in the modern world.

His first mistake, you see, was going to the bank. I figure he saw an Indymac ad in the paper advertising some ridiculously high CD rate and decided to take all his money and go for it. That's perfectly understandable, particularly if you've looked at some of the pitiful rates that savings and money market accounts are paying these days. However, what he should have done instead of going down to the bank is go online.

Once online he could have gone to a website like bankrate.com and compared Indymac's rates to some other CD rates currently on market, and he could have even bought most of them right there over the internet if he wanted to. Yep, he could have done that, but then he might have ended up in the same fix he's in now. Unfortunately, just because a CD is listed on bankrate.com, that doesn't mean the issuing bank is any more fiscally sound that Indymac was.

With $220k to invest, what I would have recommended instead is that he ladder his CD's, and the easiest way I've found to do that is with an online brokerage account. Most, if not all, online brokerage accounts can be set up online, and in many cases can be linked directly to your bank account, making it easy to transfer cash back and forth between the two. Once you have set up and funded your account, then CD laddering is as simple as it gets.

Maybe I should explain laddering. The whole idea behind CD laddering is to spread your interest rate risk over a group of CD's, trading some upside (and downside) potential for a better average return over time. For example, suppose you put $220,000 in a 12 month CD paying 3.8%. That's great, but let's say that a couple of months after your purchase interest rates start to rise. Now instead of paying 3.8%, newly issued 12 month CD's are paying 4.0%. Oops. By locking yourself in to that one CD, your going to miss out on an extra .02% of interest for the next 10 months until your CD matures. Then let's say that interest rates continue to rise and a couple of months later 12 month CD's are paying 4.2%. Now you're really starting to feel screwed.

If instead of putting all of your $220k into that one CD, though, suppose you laddered your money instead. That is, instead of buying 1 CD you buy 4 CD's of varying lengths. For example, you put $55k into a 3 month CD paying 2.5%, another $55k into a 6 month CD paying 2.9%, another $55k into a 9 month CD paying 3.4%, and finally the final $55k into the 12 month CD paying 3.8%. Obviously, your not going to make as much money laddering as you would by putting all your money into one 12 month CD, but now what happens if interest rates start to rise.

Well, in 3 months the first CD matures so you invest the proceeds from that CD into a new 12 month CD paying 4.0%. In another 3 months the second CD matures and you invest the proceeds from that into a 12 month CD paying 4.2%. In another 3 months the third CD matures and you invest it into a 12 month CD, and in another 3 months the fourth CD matures and you invest it in another 12 month CD as well. As you can see, now instead of having all of your eggs in one basket, you've got a situation where every 3 months one of your CD matures and gets reinvested, allowing you to take advantage of rising interest rates.

Of course, interest rates can also fall, but by laddering you insure that as they fall at least some part of your investment is either at or above the current rate. That's the whole idea behind laddering, and this is just one simple example of how it can be done. By averaging your purchases over time, you guard against fluctuation.

So why do you need an online brokerage account to do that? You don't, but brokerage accounts make it much easier. I'll use Charles Schwab as an example, since that's the broker I use. You might not know it but Schwab isn't just about stocks and bonds, and in fact has a whole section of their website dedicated to CD's ( I'm pretty sure that Ameritrade and Etrade and all the others do as well). If you go to Schwab's CD page you'll see that they offer a list of CD's of different interest rates and maturities offered for sale.

To set up a ladder, all you do is search the maturity your looking for, compare the rates from the different banks, and press the "buy" button. There are no transaction costs involved because Schwab has an agreement with certain banks and the banks pay all the fees. In the above example, you could buy a 3 month CD from Bank A, a 6 month CD from Bank B, a 9 month CD from bank C, and a 12 month CD from bank D, which not only spreads out your interest rate risk but also keeps all your money fully FDIC insured if the individual CD's are with different banks and under the $100k limit.

So you see, there was no reason for that gentleman to lose the money he did. He could have gone online and laddered his CD's and saved himself a lot of grief. It's all about risk management, and I bet you there are a lot of people out there making all sorts of fancy trades who don't have a clue about simple cash investing. It's certainly not very sexy and your not going to sell a lot of copies of Money Magazine by putting CD Laddering on the cover, but with the way things are today and everybody ducking for cover it might not hurt to learn a little about the less glamorous side of investing.

Hope that was useful.

I Got My Acme Toaster

The thing is, I'm an Acme guy. Yeah, I know it sounds weird, but for some reason whatever Acme makes I gotta buy it. That's just who I am. People say, like, "Oh, he's just an Acme fanboy" and things like that, but I don't care. Acme makes the coolest stuff out there, that's all. It's not like someone buys a Samsung or a Sony and I say "Oh, he's just a total Sony fanboy" or something stupid like that. It's just that, for me, life really comes down to just three things - the times when Acme announces a new product, the times when Acme ships a new product, and then all the lonely, meaningless, hours in between.

So like I said, I'm an Acme guy, and this new Acme toaster is just so cool. All the Acme rumor sites were speculating about it last year, but when Acme finally announced it last spring's AcmePlanet conference it just blew everybody away. I mean, everyone knew it would have four slots and all that, but no one predicted it would have an automatic french toast feature. Man, that is awesome. None of the Acme rumor sites predicted that. Of course to make french toast you have to activate the toaster and buy this special Acme bread, and when you can't activate it you have to sign up for a monthly "Ac-ME" subscription, but that doesn't bother me. It's just a matter of time before someone figures out a way to hack the toaster to use regular Orowheat or Wonder Bread instead.

That didn't stop me from buying mine, at least. At first I was just going to go down to Walmart about 2 hours before they opened up and then stand in line, but I guess I started getting a little anxious so I decided to go down the week before and sleep on the sidewalk instead. Some people think that's weird, but, I dunno. I suppose on the scale of human achievement, camping out in front of the store just so I could be first to get an Acme toaster isn't really all that much. It's roughly equivalent to being the first one on the schoolbus just to get a seat by the window, but, I dunno, I just had to have one. You know?

But I got one now and it's so cool. I should probably do a review but I just got it so I haven't really used all the features yet. You can get them in white or stainless steel, and I got one of the stainless steel ones. What's so cool about it, though, is that it doesn't have any buttons. It's just got these lights on the side and you touch them whenever you need to do anything, like change modes or adjust the temperature or things like that. Even if you don't want to make any toast it's still fun just to play with the buttons.

What's kind of a drag, though, is that it uses this really weird cable to plug into the wall. You have to use this special adaptor that goes into the wall socket and then the cable plugs into the adaptor, and if you lose either the cable or the adaptor then you have to buy a totally new power kit from Acme. I think they cost like $40 too, so you gotta be careful not to lose it.

The french toast thing was cool too, but you have to activate your toaster before you can use it. That was kind of a pain. When I got home I tried to activate it, but Acme's servers were down. It took me like 3 hours before I finally got through, and then I had to download the code to my toaster and install it, and that took like another half-hour. Then when I finally got everything installed, I found out that I needed special Acme bread in order to make french toast. I'm going down to the Acme store tomorrow and pick some up and I'll let you know how it turns out. I don't like french toast all that much anyway.

That's all I've got so far. I don't think anyone else has got their toaster post up yet so I'm pretty sure I'm the first. I hope so. That would be killer. Either way I think I'll go take a shower now because, like dude, I've been sleeping on the sidewalk for a week, you know? After that, I dunno, maybe I'll play around with my toaster for a while and then check out the Acme sites to see if there are any new rumors. I'm just so stoked right now that I can't sleep. Maybe later. I can't wait to go into work tomorrow and show everybody my new toaster. That ought to be interesting for, I dunno,

five minutes.

Free-dumb-ah, Free-dumb-ah, Free-dumb-ah, Free-dumb-ah

If this is global warming, then I'm opposed to it. So far we've got fire, drought, heat alerts, and pestilence and plague are probably just around the corner. That's here in California, of course, and it boggles the mind to think that the population experts are saying that if current population trends hold, the Bay Area alone can expect to see an increase of around 1 million new residents by the year 2050.

People, what are you thinking?

Ok, look, if you're going to move here then at least be prepared. I's say , at the minimum, you'll need a fire extinguisher, an earthquake survival kit, and lots and lots of bottled water. A good set of solar panels would also come in handy because I don't think we're going to have enough electricity to go around (nuclear works too).

As for myself, I'm a native, and as long as I've got some gas in my tank then I'll survive. Yeah, call it a case of Nero fiddlin' while California burns, but we've got so many natural disasters going on around here that a person just can't keep up. Better just to gas our tanks, fire up the engine, and go cruising.

Today was particularly bad. Seems a big, smelly high pressure system decided to park itself outside our door, and I'm telling ya' it must have been 900 degrees outside. The kind of day where everything gets frazzled - the people, the birds, and even the trees start getting droopy. I'll never forget it. This afternoon I saw a heat exhausted cat try to cross the street and get to some shade and it just broke my heart to hear his little paws start to sizzle as he stepped across the hot pavement.

Poor little kitty.

All you could see as after he made it across the road were the spots where his skin had blistered off and peeled, leaving little pawprints melted into the asphalt. (Sorry. I just made that up. No animlas were injured in the posting of this blog)

Well, I'm no poor little kitty and I'm no fool either, so when the furnace started heating up I did what any sane Californian would do. I went to the beach. Yeah sure, we had this "spare the air" alert in the valley and we weren't supposed to drive if we didn't have to, but c'mon. Besides, going to the beach gave me a chance to take my first long ride on my new bike. I say if you want clean air then move to the Himalayas - I'm going riding.

The bike is still 100% stock so I headed out without benefit of a windshield or a comfortable place to sit, but it was still a nice ride - about a hundred miles roundtrip. I don't really need a windshield to ride that far anyway, and the seat - well, what can I say about the seat. Let me put it this way.

It was about a 45 minute ride to Santa Cruz due to the road congestion. Unfortunately, about a quarter of million other people had the same idea I had and decided to make it a "beach day" too, so the traffic was a little heavy going over the mountain. It ended up taking me about 45 minutes, and by the time I got to Santa Cruz I felt like I just had a colonoscopy and the proctologist had left a couple of his instruments up there.

Why is that, you ask? Why don't motorcycle manufacturers put a decent seats on their bikes? Well, you're not the only one who wonders this very thing because I've read hundreds and hundreds of posts on the various motorcycle forums about this very same subject, and the consensus seems to be that uncomfortable stock motorcycle seats, like just about every other problem discussed on the internet, is part of a huge conspiracy. The theory among the uniformed is that motorcycle manufacturers recieve secret kickbacks from motorcycle accessory companies for each aftermarket motorcycle seat they sell. Thus, the crappier the stock seats, the more aftermarket seats they sell, and the more money the motorcycle manufacturers make down the road.

Well I've heard some wild conspiracy theories before, and all I can say is that before we all start jumping to conclusions we should look at the facts. Having no facts to look at, however, let me just say that I'm in total agreement. It's a conspiracy, dammit, and those aftermarket seats aren't cheap either.

Of course there are the dissenters, and I particularly remember this one post I read where the guy said "You're riding a motorcycle not sitting on your living room sofa. Get over it." (subtext: quit you're complaining you snively-nosed bunch of whiners). I guess it's reassuring to know that in this age of excess there's still a minimalist or two among us. Just give him a frame, an engine, a couple of wheels and set of handlebars and he's all set. Personally, whiner that I am, I'd add a comfortable place to sit into the mix as well.

Anyway, like I said it was around 900 degrees in the valley today, but the coast was a little cooler. Actually, a lot cooler. Actually, pretty frickin' cold, and there I was with nothing but my mesh riding jacket, my mesh gloves, tshirt, jeans and boots on. As soon as I got north of Santa Cruz the temperature dropped from 900 degrees above zero to about 20 below. Still, ever the adventurer I sallied on, even as my heart slowed and my arms went numb and frostbite started to tickle my toes. The proficient motorcyclist always comes prepared for changing weather conditions, the dumbass motorcyclist just freezes his butt off.

I managed to finish the ride, however, and I had my trusty little camerphone along for some quick snaps. This shot is from the cliffs above Pescadero beach looking south. Normally, the haze you see along this part of the coast would be the fog drifting in from the ocean, but this is not fog. It is the smoke from the California fires making it's way south. Over the next few days the weather people are expecting more and more of this smoke to settle into the Bay Area and across the state, so if you're planning on coming out to California any time soon you might want to throw a respirator or two into your overnight bag.

The bike ran like a dream. This road along this particular stretch of coast is officially called The Cabrillo Highway, but I don't know anyone who calls it that. In fact, if you asked any of the locals for directions on how to get to the Cabrillo Highway, I'm pretty sure they would punch you in the nose and ask "What did you call me?" Up here everyone just calls it Highway 1, and it's a very popular place to go biking (both motorized and non-motorized). I must have seen at least a couple dozen motorcycles go past in just the short stretch I rode - sportbikes, mostly, with just an occaisional hog. Lots of cars like to use the road too and you may even come across an RV or two along the way, but the really nice thing about Highway 1, besides the scenery and the open road, is that it's not very popular with the truckers. In fact, I didn't see a single one today, and that's always a good thing.

All in all, I had a great ride. Lots of butt breaks, but that's just the way it goes. Luckily there a lots of beaches along the way where you can stop and stretch your legs or do whatever you need to do. I'm including this last picture just so you can see some of the luxury accomodations you'll find as you pass down the highway. It's strange that travel writers hardly ever mention restroom facilities when they publish their travel guides, as if that's something no one ever thinks about. I mean, if you're taking a road trip then pitstops are an important consideration, aren't they? I know I think about them, and worry if none are around. Have you ever been travelling down an interstate and casually scanned the bushes along the side of the road wondering what would make a good stopping point in case of emergency? Or is that just me?

Art Sale

The dilemma facing the modern blogger these days is to find a topic worth blogging about. The economy? Too depressing. The energy crisis? Too intractable. The elections? The voter's know who they are going to elect. Up and down the spectrum the issues of the day are simply too bleak to bear scrutiny, the challenges too daunting to believe that talk and wisdom alone can detour or delay their consequence. Isn't it the most compromising trait of leadership that leaders, failing to lead, make such a virtue of debate, as though a "healthy debate of the issues" were a fitting substitute for action. Let the bloggers debate the issues, Senators, and let yourselves get on with the conduct of affairs.

Anyway, I'm fresh out of solutions. Sorry. I hope that isn't why your reading me today. Did you come here for investment advice maybe? Well, I'll be damned if I know where you should invest your money. Stocks, bonds, real estate are all falling, interest on cash deposits is pitiful, and everyone keeps telling us that commodities are the place to be. Really? All I can say is that I have no clue why oil is trading at $145 a barrel, and I'd rather understand what I'm investing in rather than just throw my money in the pot because that's what everyone else is doing. The next time someone tells you to invest in commodities then ask them to explain the corn market to you, or the metals market, or the oil market or whatever, and not in general terms but in specific terms of risk and reward. After you hear their answer, then decide if you want to invest in commodities.

But I don't want to talk about that - it's too depressing. Let's talk about politics. Nah, wait, I don't really want to talk about that either. I want to talk about Bayreuth. I'm sure you must have seen this story come across the wires. In case you didn't, it looks like the Bayreuth festival has decided to go online this year, and in a surprising display of "not getting it" has decided to charge web audiences a mere $77.00 to watch to their live opening night webcast. According to the article, they hope this will attract new generations of opera goers.

Or...uh...maybe not.

Now before I offer my opinion on the subject let me just say that I think it's great that Bayreuth has decided to at least explore new media as a means to reach new audiences. I mean it's not like the festival is going to fail if they choose not to participate in the digital revolution. This is the Bayreuth Festspielhaus, for crying out loud - the house that Wagner built. According to Wikipedia, the Bayreuth festival has been sold out ever since it's first performance in 1876. Clearly, attendance is not a problem.

But the Bayreuth festival doesn't want to be left behind by the newer technologies, so they've decided to experiment with live streaming. Again, I think that's great, even though I'm not as worried as some that opera may be a dying art form. Sure, it's not as popular as it once was, but there are many successful opera houses all around the globe and audiences are still buying tickets to see performances of what is essentially a four hundred year old art form. If you think of all the cultural changes that have taken place over the last four centuries then you have to think that opera has enough staying power to outlast the digital revolution as well.

The key, of course, is new audiences, and that's really what this whole streaming thing is about. It's a great idea, but do they really think they're going to attract new audiences by charging $77.00 for the stream? Not likely. Not when you consider that on the web people expect to get things for free, and that today's teens or twenty-somethings are much more inclined to go to a peer-to-peer site and get a bootlegged copy of what they want (along with various viruses and worms and rootkits, etc...) than they to pay 77 bucks to watch to an opera. It's a good idea Bayreuth, but if you want to generate any buzz on the web you've got to give it away.

Then again I could be wrong, and if just one child is saved from a life of Christina Aguilera records then it will be worth the whole undertaking (pfffffftttt). Actually, I was trying to remember how I first got into opera and I really can't remember any one thing exactly, although I'm pretty sure I didn't have to shell out $77.00 for the experience.

For me, I think, I just got bored with rock and roll. At a certain point I just understood everything there was to understand about that music, and the experience started to go stale. So I started listening to jazz instead, and I liked it, but jazz rarely achieved the kind of artistic depth I was looking for. Jazz was more like a dozen or so real innovators, and 10,000 copycats all doing more or less the same thing.

My real musical epiphany didn't come until a few years later when I was flipping around the radio dial one night and happened upon something that just blew my mind. That was Mahler's Third Symphony and it changed my life. The arts can do that you know. Just look at any teenager and see the effects that a certain style of music can have on the way they act and the way they dress and just their whole cultural outlook. After hearing Mahler's Third for the first time I went out and bought the record and have been listening to classical music ever since. That's the absolute truth, and somewhere along the way opera entered the picture.

So who knows, maybe the Bayreuth webcast will change someone's elses life just as Mahler changed mine. I'm sure there are still plenty of kids out there who are hungering for a deeper musical experience than the three minute songs being served up on the radio or on Itunes, and maybe they'll be willing to spend the $77.00 to try something new. If not then perhaps Bayreuth will try again and maybe offer a free webcast instead. That would be good too. If so, then I'd suggest they try a different opera. Der Meistersinger is nice, but doesn't strike me as the Wagnerian opera that would appeal to a teenager. Teens would probably be more into something like Tannhauseur, with all that sin and redemption and death and stuff. Kids eat that up.

But it'll come, it'll come. Like I said, opera's been around for four hundred years, so I'm pretty sure it's going to stick around for a while, and who knows, maybe four hundred years from now they'll still be singing Christina Aguilera songs too.

Hey, it could happen.