The Big Broadcast Of 2005

As much as I'd like to say that I've got the new religion, that I've caught the podcasting fever, I'm afraid I'm beginning to have my doubts. Yes there are some shows I like and yes I like the convenience of being able to time shift the content to fit my schedule, but more and more I just get this feeling that podcasting will never be the next big thing.

Maybe I should backup first and explain what I'm talking about.

Podcasting, for those of you who may not be familiar with the term, is a means of distributing radio over the internet. Unlike the streams which are typical of traditional internet radio, podcasts are distributed as simple mp3 files. This means that instead of tuning in to a station at a particular time to hear a broadcast, a podcast listener can store the audio file on his computer or device and play back or "time shift" the content at his or her convenience. Strictly speaking this is not a new concept and companies such as Audible.com have long offered radio shows and audiobooks for download at their sites, however podcasting offers some important differences.

The first is that podcasts are free. Sites such as Audible.com charge for their content and encrypt their downloads to prevent unauthorized copying and distributi0n. Podcasts have no such restrictions and do not charge for their content. Their files are in the common mp3 format, the lingua franca of the digital audio world, and playable on just about every conceivable computer and device currently in existence. Audible's content will only play on machines authorized to receive Audible content and licensed to receive the specific show or book being downloaded. This all relates to a concept called DRM (Digital Rights Management) that I will talk about later.

The second important difference is the means of distribution. Podcasts are not distributed through a central server or website like Audible.com but rather through a method known as syndication. To put it in very simple terms, to receive podcasts a listener needs to subscribe to a providers "feed" (commonly called an RSS feed) which will deliver the content to his computer as it becomes available, much like a magazine that arrives in the mail each month. That subscription, in turn, is handled separately by a free program such as Ipodder or Doppler which the user downloads and installs on his computer. It is this software which manages the subcription(s) and keeps the downloaded podcasts up to date and organized. If this sounds complicated, it's not. The software does most of the dirty work.

Of course what this all means to the user is portablility. As I mentioned before podcasts are simply mp3 files which are playable on just about any portable device. This means that rather than being tied to a computer to listen to your internet radio, you can download the shows to your mp3 player or similar device and take the show with you. Podcasting isn't unique in this and sites such Audible.com and Napster also allow you to download their content to portable devices, but with restrictions and for a fee. There are no restrictions on podcasts and everyone is free to create, listen to and distribute them as they wish.

So what's the problem? Podcasting sounds great, doesn't it?

Actually, there is no problem. Podcasting is great, and it really exploits this whole idea "narrowcasting" or niche programming. That is, because it's free and often a labor of love, podcasting encourages all sorts of enthusiasts and hobbyists and assorted oddballs to offer programs that would never be aired over conventional radio. One of my favorite's is a half-hour show called Dave's Ipaq dedicated solely to Hewlett Packard PDA's. It's done by guy named Dave Ciccone who also runs a website of the same name, and although the show is very well done it's probably not of much interest to anyone who doesn't own an Ipaq or other Pocket PC. Another favorite of mine is EarlySound which features music of the Renaissance and Early Baroque. It is hosted by a robot named Mr. Sauterne (yes, like the wine) and is a concept so imaginative and weird that no professional media company would ever consider doing it. Unfortunately only one show has been done so far, although I'm hoping there are more to come.

Of course, amateur radio being amateur radio there are also plenty of shows that are a complete waste of time. Take for instance a show I once downloaded that started off with some high school or junior high school kid making fart noises into his microphone (a concept that was probably funnier on paper than it was on the air). I'm sure his friends got a kick out of it but I didn't stick around to hear the rest of the hilarious goings-on. Or how about the show where the guy just kept banging the microphone on his desk. That was a good one. I guess he was having sound troubles because he sounded like he was about a mile and half away. You couldn't hear a word he was saying and that would have been bad enough, but all the time he was recording he kept fiddling with things and making these really irritating banging and rubbing sounds as he moved the microphone back and forth across his desk. Sheesh. Thirty seconds of that and I filed it straight into the recycle bin.

Yeah, this podcasting is a new frontier all right, it's unpredictable and it's fun but I don't think it will ever go mainstream. I didn't used to think that. I mean I was seduced at first like all the others, but as I listen to more and more of these things I realize it's strictly a sideshow. Why? Because although it might be new and exciting right now, eventually most of these amateurs are going to tire of podcasting and move on to something else. They're going to run out of ideas and begin to repeat themselves, and they're going to wonder if it's worth all the work involved. Especially if there's no money to be made.

And money's the big reason podcasting will never go big time.

There's simply no way to make a profit from it. What are these podcaster's going to do - find sponsor's and sell ads? How? Unless Congress makes the fast-forward button illegal (and I wouldn't put it past 'em) then ad's aren't going to work. It simply too easy to skip them. What will the podcasters do then? Are they going to start charging for their subscriptions? How can they do that without some kind of DRM. If they can't control the distribution of their content then how can they charge for subscriptions? And if they do start DRM'ing their content then they're not podcasting anymore - they''re just the same as Audible or Napster.

Nope. Without a path to profitabilty (I think that's what the business geeks call it) the big guys are never going to buy the podcasting concept and the little guys are just going to get tired and fade away. Sure, some of the more successful websites will maintain podcasts as an adjunct to their core content and there will be radio stations offering bits and pieces of their programming as a way to reach a larger audience, but the idea of a little guy starting with nothing more than a microphone and a computer and building a media empire is just childish fantasy.

At least at this point it is.