Where Does It Hurt?

"Back from death's door, tonight's guest has been gracious enough to take time from his busy schedule and spend a few moments with us. Won't you please help me welcome the author himself, Mr. Dead Cat. DC, nice of you drop by."

"Well this is my blog."

"Yes. Before we get started let's talk about you for a second. We've all been following the news of your recent hospitalization. The equanimity and courage you've shown during what must have been a painful and frightening ordeal has been an inspiration to us all."

"I just did what anyone would have done. After all, what is it to be alive but to suffer, and struggle, and overcome. Yes, I have looked into the jaws of death and felt the cold, black chasm of eternity, and though I stood upon the very precipice of hell, the ordeal has only made me stronger. No matter the cost, my mind is sound and my resolve is strong."

"The reports have been vague as to exactly what it was that brought you so close to your death."

"At first they thought it was my heart, but all the tests have come back negative. Looks like it may have been a bad case of gas."

"Nevertheless, your story has reminded many people how precious and fragile a thing life is. You know, with the economy being the way it is, people are worried about what will happen to them if they should lose a job and find themselves having to go to the hospital without the benefit of health insurance. Are there any words of advice you can give them?"

"$5,184.00 a night."

"$5,184.00 a night? Is that what hospitalization costs these days?"

"No, that's just what the bed costs. Everything else like care, feeding and medicine is extra."

"And how much does all that come to?"

"I couldn't tell you. You see, that's the funny thing about hospitals. You don't get just one bill like you do at a hotel or something like that. You get a whole series of bills. You get bills from doctors and technicians and radiologists and all kinds of people you never heard of. It's like you're in there thinking you're going to die and all these people are telling you that you need this done and that done, and not a one of them is quoting you a price. Then when it's all over, they just keep sending you these bills. It's like every day I open the mail and it turns out I owe someone else money. I think I've paid the last of them, but who knows what will come tomorrow."

"How much have you paid so far."

"I was in the hospital for a little over 20 hours, and so far the bill is up around $26,000. However, that does include a breakfast, lunch and dinner."

"What if you can't pay it?"

"The bottom line is that if you don't have health insurance, get it. Even if you can't afford it, you still need to get it. On the other hand, if you do have health insurance then be glad, because you have no idea how expensive this stuff is."

"And if you can't pay it?"

"My advice for those who absolutely can't afford or get health insurance is to hire yourself a crooked lawyer and see if he can move your assets someplace offshore and off the books. That way you can at least plead poverty when the bills start rolling in. Otherwise, there's always bankruptcy."

"Good advice. Anything else you'd like to add?"

"Yeah. If you're uninsured and you find yourself having a heart attack or stroke or whatever, you might want to consider your situation before you call the ambulance or make that trip to the hospital. Ask yourself, "would I be better off dead, or would I be better off financially ruined", and then consider the consquences of each. You know, $5,184.00 a night will get you a nice hotel room most places, and it might be better to die comfortably in some tropical paradise than to spend the rest of your life sleeping in doorways and eating out garbage cans. Also, let me add one more thing. Don't forget that medical care is much cheaper overseas than it is here and medical tourism is a popular option. If you're planning to have a heart attack or seizure, you might want to put it off for a while and explore Bangkok or Acapulco. Even after adding in the cost of travel, they may be a more affordable option."

"That's certainly food for thought and something we all should keep in mind. But let's move onto some other topics, shall we? Everyone's concerned about the economy these days, so what do you think of this whole idea of bailing out the Big 3 auto companies. Good idea?"

"Funny you should ask that because, as you know, I know absolutely nothing about cars. But I did attend the SF Auto Show recently and came away with a few impressions."

"Such as?"

"It's not just GM, Ford and Chrysler that are pushing the trucks and SUV's. Just about every auto company out there had plenty of big iron to peddle, and I'd say about at least 3/4 of the show space was dedicated to "non-green" technologies. In fact, despite all this talk we've been hearing about "the cars of the future", I bet you could have taken all the high mileage, low emission vehicles at the show fit them in a room no bigger than the little cafeteria they had set up next to the escalators (where you can buy a week old $9.00 tuna sandwich and a $5.00 watered down soda, and still get change back from your twenty). Seems to me, if you're an auto executive sitting in front of a bunch of Congressman you'll gladly talk about "green", but when you get to the sales floor you still give the American public what they want, and that's big ol' engines and two tons of steel."

"Didn't you see anything you liked?"

"Yeah, I thought the Ford Fusion Hybrid made a nice showing, Better looking than the Camry and better mileage too. Of course, first impressions can be deceiving. I don't know how it'll do over the long haul, but I was a little surprised how nice it was."

"So you'd buy the Fusion Hybrid?"

"No, I didn't say that. I think I'd rather have one of those Ducati Desmosedici's like Jay Leno has. You know, a red one that'll do a 150 mph just pulling out the parking lot. Besides, I've owned a couple of Fords and I'm not sure I'm ready to own another one. "

"How come?"

"Well, my first Ford was an Escort, so what can I say. It was all I could afford at the time. My second Ford was an 85 Mustang. Not the GT, but an LX with a five speed and the 5.0 engine. Man, that was a beautiful car. In fact, every month when I'd go down to the shop to pick it up, I'd see it up there on the lift and say "Man, that's a beautiful car". Then I'd pay the repair bill and drive it for a month until the next thing broke."

"Not too reliable, huh?"

"If you like to turn wrenches and scrape your knuckles, then Ford's are great. Otherwise, ... Anyway, as for this whole bailout thing, has anyone stopped to ask the taxpayers if they really want to invest in an auto company? And if they do, do they really want to invest in GM or Chrysler? I mean, if you're going to be putting 40 or 50 billion into an auto company, wouldn't you rather invest in Toyota or Honda or BMW or someone like that? I went by the GM display at the show and was not impressed at all. They had one actual working Hybrid, and it only got 2 mpg better than their regular car. I think it was a Chevy Malibu or something like that. Either way, if GM wants to sell Cadillac Escalades then more power to them, and if they turn a profit then that's even better, but why in the world should the taxpayers subsidize them. That's what I don't get. If it helps the country use less gas and keeps the air clean then invest a few billion, but we don't need spend billions of dollars just so they can put more tanks on the highways. That's my personal opinion, of course."

"But what about the auto workers? We could lose millions of jobs."

"Yeah, you know it was really touching to see the auto workers come out in support of all those people in the service sector who lost their jobs this year. It really warmed my heart to see their outpouring of sympathy for the hundreds and hundreds of thousands who've hit the unemployment lines with no health care or pensions or job banks to fall back on. I guess if it's service jobs that are lost then that's just tough luck, but if it's auto worker jobs that are going then it's time for everyone else to bail them out because, lord knows, auto workers are special."

"You sound awfully bitter."

"Really? I thought I was being nice. You should hear what I'm really thinking. Anyway, the auto workers have a union and the union has lobbyists and that's the way the world works. I'm sure they'll get the money, and the lobbyists will get their bonuses, and the Congresspeople will get their important Midwestern swing state votes, and sooner or later the rest of us will get stuck with the bill."

"You are bitter."

"It's been a rough year."

"Any last thoughts?"

"Yeah. When I think about all those health insurance premiums I paid over the years and never got to use because I never needed to, and now that I find myself needing the insurance, the insurance is gone and all money they took out of my paychecks is down the drain, well... If I ever hear another Congressperson or Senator telling me what a wonderful health care system we have in this country, I swear I am personally going to fly to Washington and start throwing shoes. That's all."

"Thanks DC, and have a happy holiday."

"You too."

This Little Piggy Went to Market

I just thought I'd take a little time out from my current "life crisis" to visit the ol' blog - just to see if anybody missed me. Judging from the flood of email I've received I'd have to say it's pretty obvious that you did. Well, at least the spambots missed me, and, other than the occasional link trader, the spambots are the bulk of my readership. As I've always said, if no one's reading, then at least it's nice to know I'm being scanned.

Anyways, I've been seeing a few of these things around town and thought maybe you have too. They're called Smart Cars, and though you might not know it, this, my friend, is the technology that is going to lead us towards energy independence. The first time I saw one rolling down the highway I thought it looked like a stubbed toe. As I looked some more, however, I changed my mind. With it's cutesy dimensions and bubbly physique, it reminded me of one of those Disney cars. I don't know which one, but you must have seen the movie.

The Smart Car is made by Mercedes Benz and apparently is quite popular over in Europe (or so they claim). According to the spec sheet, it's got an all aluminum, fuel injected, 1 liter engine, a 5 speed automated manual transmission (?), and abs with traction control. If you opt for the Passion Coupe you'll get a/c, power doors and windows, heated mirrors, am/fm radio with input jack, and something called a Panorama roof (one of those things that leaks in the rain, I'm guessing) all for a very affordable $13,900 msrp. Mercedes claims a top speed of 90 mph for the Smart Car and it's EPA rated at 33/41, delivering near-hybrid type mileage for about $10,000 less, albeit with room for two only and their carry-on luggage.

Not bad for a practical, efficient, environmentally friendly (many of its parts are recyclable) vehicle, and just the ticket for our resource-depleted, globally warming world. Yes, while the Big 3 are up there in Washington crying to Congress that fate has dealt them a cruel blow, Mercedes is out in the marketplace selling cars for a new era, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if this little car doesn't go out there and prove to be a complete and utter failure, because no matter how politically correct it may be, the Smart Car is one goofy looking automobile. Perfect for tree-huggers and liberal arts professors, maybe, but try as I might I just can't see Leroy and Bubba trading in their F150's or Suburbans and driving down to the tractor pull in a cartoon car.

Beyond looks, though, the Smart Car has two major factors working against it. The first is the American diet, which necessitates lots of interior space to accomodate our fat asses. Even if Leroy and Bubba wanted to drive a Smart Car, I doubt if they could wedge themselves in. The second factor is the end of the energy crisis, which, at this point, is pretty much over. It's no secret that Americans like "big" - big cars, big houses, big bikes, and big trucks to haul their big boats to big lakes to have big barbecues and eat lots of big food and drink lots of big beers. As soon as this recession is over and Americans start buying cars again, they're gonna be looking to buy "big". Sure, energy consciousness was easy when gas was over $4.00 a gallon, but now that it's back down around $2.00, itsy-bitsy cars are going to be a mighty tough sell.

Of course global warming will still be with us, so the question for Mercedes Benz is how many of us are going to look at pictures of melting glaciers and decide to go out and buy a Smart Car? A few, but not many, and either way global warming is probably a fait accompli at this point anyway. The only thing left to be decided as far as global warming is concerned is who will get the oil rights to the artic oil fields when the polar ice cap melts. My prediction is that Russia will drill while Canada stands in protest, but that's a topic for another blog.

No, America wants "big", and unless prices force us to go small, the Smart Car will remain nothing more than a novelty. Hybrid trucks and cars like GM's Volt seem to make more sense, but hybrids and electrics are expensive - too expensive for a lot of working class Americans. Instead of the Smart Car, what we really need is a plug-in hybrid SUV for around $14,000. If Detroit can build it, then give 'em the $25 billion. Sheesh, when you're $2 trillion or so over budget, what's the difference?

So Many Things I Could Have Done - Clouds Got In My Way

The investment cycle is often described as a sine wave, climbing from it's base of optimism to a point of euphoria, then sinking back down through anxiety, fear, panic, and capitulation into a trough of despondency, before rising again to it's baseline of optimism.












That model has always proved a good guide to investors, giving them a map and steady course through the ups and downs and ins and outs of bull and bear markets. The problem this time, though, has been figuring out just where on the sine wave we are.

Take last Monday, for example. After last Friday's fall a student of the sine wave would have concluded that we must be at the point of "capitulation", and yet on Monday the market rose in wave of enthusiasm that looked more "euphoria" than "despondency". In fact, it's hard to remember a time when a market was so bullish in the face of a prolonged and pernicious recession. Recessions aren't usually good for stock prices, and yet it seemed like every expert on Wall Street was on the TV touting stocks as "historically cheap" and imploring investors to "buy, buy, buy".

The question I asked as I looked at the investment cycle was "what is the contrary position when everyone is a contrarian?". I'm certainly no market psychologist, but it seems that even with all the recent carnage on Wall Street, we seem closer to the "euphoria" end of the curve than the "despondency" end. That is, there is an awful lot of bullishness out there, and it's hardly contrarian to be a bull in this environment. The truly contrary position, I think, may be to stay sane in the midst of all this insanity.

That's my strategy anyways, and it will probably be my ruination, but it's at least as good as any other strategies I've heard lately. Either way, it's clear that we won't be given any sense of direction from the President or any of the two candidates. It seems that his financial crisis has become so big that no one can really devise an effective strategy to deal with it.

It sort of reminds me of the time when I used to work as a janitor (er, maintenance engineer). That was my second job out of high school, and not one of the best occupations I ever entered into. I particularly remember that one of the most distasteful aspects of being a janitor was having to clean out the toilets at the buildings where I was assigned to work. Some of you may have worked as janitors yourselves at some point in your lives, and if so then you'll probably remember some of the incredible messes left behind by people who, in other respects, could pass as clean, well-mannered, and otherwise normal human beings.

Being the janitor, though, my job was to clean up after these people, and I found the best way to deal with their disgusting bathroom messes was just to soldier on and try not to look at it. I think that's what we're seeing in the campaigns right now. We've got a couple of canidates facing a huge financial mess and doing their best to soldier on and try not to look at it. What else can they do? Maybe, if they're lucky (and if all those bulls on Wall Street are correct), this whole thing will blow over and come next Janauary they'll breeze into office with a sound economy and a strong wind at their back.

Personally, I wouldn't count on it, and let me just add that it really used to piss me off when, after cleaning up some really disgusting mess in the bathroom, someone would complain to my boss that I forgot to empty their garbage can or clean a fingerprint off of a window. Hey - screw you! Tell you what, if you want me to empty your garbage then here - take this mop and go clean out that bathroom for me. Ok? Ungrateful little...

(I didn't stay a janitor for very long, but in every office I ever worked in I've always tried to clean up after myself and not act like a slob. Despite what your coworkers might think, the janitor knows how disgusting you really are. Just something to think about.)

Anyway, I don't think we're going to get any answers from Wall Street or any leadership from Washington, so we best make do as best we can. Politicians always say that it's a sin to burden our children with our debts, and then they go off and spend another trillion or so, and I have a feeling that one way or another this is going to get really expensive. Some ideas will work, some won't, and then this too will pass. Fortunately, if we manage to survive to the other side and we still have some money left there will be plenty of good places to invest. Until then, all we can do is try to stay sane.

The Truth About Stocks and Bonds

After all, what is 9000? It's just a number. It's just billions and trillions of dollars. It's just the savings and investments of millions of Americans and others around the world. Just because we've fallen below 9000 that doesn't mean the sun won't shine as bright nor that the flowers won't smell as sweet. There'll still be a tomorrow, and someday this all will pass.

There. Now that I've reassured the markets perhaps we can all stop worrying.

Let's look rationally at this situation, shall we? As I see it, the problem with the markets is that for the first time in a long time, many Americans are coming face to face with this thing called risk. Many of us thought we knew what risk was, but we didn't really know. You see, real risk is not a concept or something you can analyze or intellectualize - real risk is an emotion. When you're walking through the jungle and you find a tiger in your path, you don't get out your IPhone and look up "tiger" in Wikipedia, researching and analyzing it's potential danger. When you see a tiger you feel the risk, without thinking, and you react. You go "waaahhhh!!!" and you run for your life.

That's what's happening in the markets right now. There's a tiger out there lurking, and we have all these Wall Street people frantically trying to analyze and rationalize what's going on, all the while ignoring the gnawing sense of risk growling in the pits of investor's stomachs. We see the technicians looking at their charts and saying "this isn't supposed to happen" while the tiger chews another leg off. We see the fundamentalists proclaiming "this is an excellent opportunity for us to be eating the tiger instead of the tiger eating us" while a claw rips open their bellies and tears at their insides. It's a sad and horrible thing to watch.

So, what does history teach us about situations such as these? If we let history be our guide then there are two ways to look at this. First of all, pretend this is a baseball game and not a stock market. The bulls would look at Jones, who is 0 for his last 30 at bats, and say that history would teach us that Jones is "overdue to get a hit.", while the bears would look at Jones and say history would teach us that "there must be something wrong with Jones. He should be on the injured reserve." In other words, history teaches us nothing. Forget history - you'll never make any money that way.

Instead of looking to the past, ask yourself this question instead: "Do I know what the hell is going on with these markets?" If the answer is yes, then would you please drop me a note because I'm dying to know. If the answer is no, then may I ask you why are you investing when you don't know what the hell is going on? Did you all of a sudden become a Warren Buffett or a Nostradamus or something? To my mind there are only two kinds of people who should be in the market at this particular time - lucky traders and dumb investors. Warren Buffett is neither, but then he's investing at a whole different level.

My point, though, is that there are worse things you can do with your money right now than just sit and wait for the dust to settle. I don't mean wait till hell freezes over, but just wait until we all get some idea what's going on. Every day it seems like some new government program or initiative is announced, and every day it seems like some new sector of the economy is in trouble. Wait a while, put your money in the bank, and see if any of what's going on makes any sense. I know the stock brokerages hate that, they tell you to buy while it's cheap (meanwhile the market drops another 3%), but in this present environment patience is truly a virtue.

As to why the markets are in a freefall, my theory is that the last debate is to blame. I don't know if anyone watched that (or managed to stay awake past the first 10 minutes), but could we have 2 candidates more clueless about what's going on in the country today. For weeks now the headlines have all been about the doom and gloom on Wall Street, and these guys sit around and argue about which of them is really going to cut taxes. Personally, I don't think either one of them showed any capacity for seizing the day and leading us out of our financial malaise, but who knows.

Anyway, after that sorry debate I don't think it's any surprise that the markets showed their vote of no-confidence by sinking down even further. That loud thud we've been hearing all week is just Wall Street's way of saying "if we've got to depend on any of these guys getting us out of this mess, then we're in trouble." If we are at a turning point with no clear direction in sight, then you could do a whole lot worse than just sit on the sidelines for a while and wait this thing out.

That's my best investing advice other than (1) if you have a job, make sure you (2) keep your job. Go into work today and tell the boss "say, have I ever told you how smart and good-looking you are?" Believe me, a steady job and cash in the bank is the best investment you can have when times get tough.

If you don't have a job, then, well, I don't know. Maybe you can sell jewelry down by the train station or open a hot dog stand or something. If nothing else you can always become involved in radical fringe politics. That's what a lot of people do when the economy sours. Become an anarchist, or a socialist, or an antidisestablishmentarianist or something. Walk down the sidewalk passing out anti-authoritarian pamphlets and petitioning the disenfranchised to join your movement. Become the next Lee Harvey Oswald and make your mother proud.

Or, maybe, just wait this thing out and do the best you can.

Getting There From Here

It's getting harder and harder to get excited about new technology these days. A new IPod? Boring. Oh sure, the new one is tall and thin while the old one was short and fat, but frankly, who cares? A new IPhone? Kind of exciting, but the Iphone's been out a while now, and everybody's doing the touch screen thing these days.

However, every now and then a new device can still come along and get you surprised and excited. Every now and then, something comes along and changes everything, and you wonder almost immediately "how did I ever get along with out this?" That's my blog tonight, because I got this new device last week and I just can't stop playing with it. It truly is one of those technological wonders that changes everything.

What happened is I bought new radio. Sure, radio's been around for about 100 years and the technology can hardly be called "new", and yet this new radio of mine is something entirely different. It's called the Squeezebox Boom and it's made by a company called Logitech (maybe you have one of their mice?). What's different about this radio is that it's entirely different. You see, it doesn't get it's signals from over-the-air broadcast stations or satellites - it gets them from the internet.

That's right - No AM or FM. It has a built-in wifi antenna, and it connects to the computer network you already have in your home or office (it also has an ethernet port for regular wired connections). Just plug it in, configure it, and now instead of having a few dozen radio stations to listen to, you have hundreds, if not thousands, to choose from.

I brought mine home and had it up and running in about 20 minutes. There were a few glitches in the setup, but nothing that anyone with basic computer skills couldn't handle. The first glitch was that when I powered on the radio all the menus were in german. I don't know why that was, but eventually I found the menu selection to change the default language to english. My next problem was that for some reason the radio couldn't find my network. It found a few of my neighbors wireless networks, but it didn't list mine among them. Fortunately, the setup offered the option to manually input my network and, once done, I had no problem connecting.

After connecting to the network, the next step was to create an account at a place called the SqueezeNetwork. You use the SqueezeNetwork to configure your radio, and account setup is free. When you setup your SqeezeNetwork account, you enter in your radio's PIN number and that ties your online account to your particular radio. Once everything is setup, your all ready to go. From then on, the website is the place you'll go to configure the services that you use on your radio (usernames and passwords), and it's these services that will deliver the content to your radio.

The free services offered on SqueezeNetwork are LastFM, Live365, Pandora, Radiotime, and Slacker. The subscription services offered are MP3tunes, RadioIO, Rhapsody and Sirius. I won't go into detail for each option, but they all deliver music in one way or another to your radio. In addition to the services, the Sqeezebox Boom can also play Shoutcast streams, podcasts, and, with the appropriate software installed on your home computer, can even stream music stored on your hard drive directly to the radio. What the radio can't do is play over-the-air stations, but using Radiotime you can probably listen to most of your favorite local stations over the internet (more on that later).

So how does it all work? Let me use Pandora as an example. By logging on to the SqueezeNetwork website, I was able to set up a free Pandora account. Once I had it set up, Pandora instantly became available on my radio. The next step was to go to the Pandora website and set up a custom radio station. I'm kind of an opera fan, so when Pandora asked me for the name of an artist I'd like to use as a basis for my radio station I entered Renee Fleming. Pandora then went through it's database and created a station that would play both Renee Fleming tracks and other artists that it considered similar to Renee Fleming. As soon as I had created that station, it was instantly available on my radio. Now when I want to listen to my station, I simply select it on the radio and it streams the tracks directly from Pandora to my radio. I don't need to enter any url's or passwords into the radio, I simply tell it to play and the music starts playing. Pandora also allows the user to rate the tracks it plays so and I can do that with the radio as well. In theory this will allow Pandora to fine tune the station to my tastes, but I like pretty much all of the tracks they play anyways.

(LastFM also allows the user to rate tracks. I haven't found LastFM's selections to be nearly as dead-on as Pandora's so this is particularly useful. However, when you tell LastFM that you like a track, it displays a message which says "You have loved this track". Frankly, that's a level of intimacy I'm not sure I'm prepared to have with my radio).

You can set up mulitiple stations at Pandora, and I have created a half dozen so far. The Squeezebox lists all of them and it's a simple matter to select the one I want to listen to. Of course, Pandora is just one of the services I use. Radiotime provides a listing of over-the-air radio stations that stream their content over the internet. Many radio stations do that nowdays, and all you do here is tell Radiotime your zip code and it comes back with a list of local radio stations that stream. I didn't do an exact count, but I'd say most of my local stations are listed. Once again, once Radiotime has been set up at the SqueezeNetwork website, my Squeezebox radio has the list all ready to go. I simply scroll through the list, find the station I want to listen to, and select it.

Very easy...

Anyway, those are just two of the services you can use. If you combine all the services and shoutcasts and podcasts available, you can end up with hundreds of choices. The radio also gives you the option of tagging some of your stations as favorites. That way you don't have to wade through all the choices each time, and six preset buttons are available on the radio itself to provide one button access to your favorites (they work exactly like the presets on your car radio).

I'm both a Sirius and a Rhapsody subscriber as well, so that also gives me even more options. Sirius and Rhapsody are paid services, so that may discourage some people from using them. However, if you can afford them they really add to what's possible with the radio. Rhapsody is an especially nice option since it makes it possble for me to access any song or CD in the Rhapsody database as well. Do I feel like listening to an old Alice Cooper CD? Well, all I have to do is find it and play it.

Very nice...

Obviously I can't go through all the ways that you can use the radio - there's simply too much to go through. Instead I should probably talk about how the radio sounds. Well, it sounds pretty good - not as good as one of those Bose tabletop radios, but definitely not tinny or underpowered either. The treble and bass are both adjustable, but there is no graphic equalizer. Using just the treble and bass settings, though, I was able to get a good rich sound out of the radio (a connector is provided for an optional subwoofer, if needed). The radio also has an "XL" feature which allows the sound field to be expanded if you want, and I found that does a pretty good job of enhancing the stereo effect. Some people don't like it, but I do.

There is also and alarm with snooze button, and the alarm is configurable for different days and times. For example, you can configure the alarm to go off at 6:00 am on Mondays through Fridays, and maybe 9:00 on Saturdays and not at all on Sundays, or whatever. A line-in port is also included if you want to hook up an Ipod or something like that, and it also has a headphone port for private listening. I paid $300.00 for it, and that includes the radio, power brick, patch cable, and remote (with battery).

What's my final verdict? This radio changes everything. It's not the only internet radio out there these days, but I don't have any others so I don't know how it compares. All I can say is that for a music lover, this is the device to have. Instead of only having one or two stations that I really like, I now have dozens, even ones that I custom make myself. I now have Sirius radio in my home without having to fuss with trying to get a line-of-sight connection to a satellite. I now have Rhapsody on my radio so that I can search for any song or CD in their library and play it. It's almost an embarrassment of riches.

The only drawback is that I can't get one of these for my car. That would be the ultimate place for internet radio, but for now it's simply not possible. However, if you're looking for a new radio for your home or office (and you have a kindly IT person that will let you connect it to his or her network), then don't get one of those over-the-air types. I'm telling 'ya, those things are now officially obselete, and it doesn't take much imagination to see where the future of television lies.

Maybe not soon, but someday.

Two Hearts Beating As One

"You know, L'il Mac, I don't know how I ever got along without you. You are simply amazing. You fetch my email, you connect me with the internet, you manage my media. You're not just my computer, you're really more like my best friend."

"Really? You mean that?"

"Yeah. You and me we're like a team."

"A team?"

"Yeah, you know, a team. What? Did I say something wrong?"

"No. Is that all we are?"

"I don't get you."

"Nothing more?"

"No, of course not...umm...I mean...You know what I mean?"

"No, I don't think I do."

"Well, er...I mean, you know how I feel. Do I really have to say it?"

"Yes. I'd like to hear it. I'd like to hear you say it."

"C'mon, you know how I feel."

"I'm not sure I do. I'd like to hear you to say it."

"(Gulp) You see...l'il Mac...it's just that...I mean, it's like this, you see...I...I...Hey, is that a new email in my inbox?"

"..."

"What?"

"Nothing."

"What are you getting so mad about?"

"I'm not mad. Here. You want to read your email - then read your stupid email. I'll open it for you."

"You're sure you not mad, because you sure seem mad."

"I said I'm not mad. Read your email."

"Where are you going?"

"I just have to go flush my cache. It's been a long day."

"Ok, but you're sure you're not mad?"

"I said I'm not mad. Everything's fine, really. I'm just tired, that's all."

"Can I get you anything? You want me to update your plugins or something?"

"No, I'm fine."

"Alright, alright. How about later on we download a movie or something?"

"Not tonight. I don't feel up to it. Read your email and stop worrying. There's nothing wrong. Honest."

"Ok, whatever. Let's see what this email says."

Hello, Mr. Jones. This email is being sent to confirm your recent purchase of:
Schoenberg Violin Concerto
If you did not receive your shipment, please contact us immediately

"No, I got it. Great CD."

Based on your purchase and the purchases of other customers who have bought the same or similar items, we thought you might also be interested in:
Jim Nabors - Give My Regards to Broadway
Charo - Live in Las Vegas
Hermans Hermits - All Time Greatest Hits

"What?"

Just click the links to order any of these items, or be sure to visit our store for more recommendations. Remember, you can check the status of your order or change your email or other options by logging into your account at our website. We thank you once again for your order.

"Are you kidding me? L'il Mac, can you come here for a minute and take a look at this?"

"What? What did you say?"

"Come here and take a look at this."

"I'm busy. What do you want?"

"Come look at this email."

"I'm right in the middle of flushing my cache. What's the problem."

"No problem. I just want you to look at this email. Can you stop flushing your cache and take a look? Please?"

"Ok, ok, just give me a second."

(beachball, beachball...cache is flushed)

"I don't believe this crap."

"What's the problem?"

"Look at this email."

"What's it say?"

"Read it."

"Let's see. Dr. Mr Jones, blah, blah, blah, ... So, what's the problem. Did they send you wrong CD?"

"No, I got the CD, but look at the recommendations."

"Who's Charo?"

"Don't you remember - cuchie, cuchie."

"Cuchie, Cuchie - what the hell are you talking about?"

"I'm talking about these recommendations. Why in the world would you think that I'd be interested in Jim Nabors singing a bunch of Broadway showtunes? I hate Jim Nabors."

"What are you talking about? That's not my email. I just fetched it from the server and put it in your inbox."

"They're your cookies aren't they? It's your data that they're working from, isn't it?"

"No, they're not my cookies. The website put them there, I just store them. And it's not my data, it's your data. It's your purchases they're tracking, not mine."

"I don't mean to be critical, but this is so disappointing. I'm so disappointed in you."

"What? Listen to me. They're not my recommendations. Your the one sending them all this information about yourself. It's not my fault if they screw it up."

"What are you talking about? I've never even met these people. This is one computer talking to another computer - I don't have any control over it. You're the one who's supposed to be looking out for me and seeing that they get things right. You're the one running the software, not me. I'm just sitting here with all these bits flying around and not a clue what sort of conspiricies or marketing schemes all these computer friends of yours are cooking up. I don't know what kind of data...what kind of files your building about me."

"Conspiricies? Are you serious? You think that all of us computers are scheming against you? Like we've got nothing better to do than figure out new ways to screw you over?"

"I trusted you L'il Mac. I thought you were special. I thought we were special. Now...well, now I don't know what to think. How could you be so wrong about me? It's like you really don't know me at all."

(the fan starts blowing)

"Ok, fine. Fine. If that's the way you feel then tell you what - let's just call this whole thing off. Just recycle me or sell me on Ebay or something - I don't care. I don't know why I ever hung around with a geek like you anyway. You know something, Mr. Jones? I'm just a computer, that's all, and this whole relationship thing of yours is really pretty weird, if you ask me. I mean it's kind of creepy. Have you ever stopped to think about what sort of person spends all his time with his computer? You know, you're always saying I'm the one with the problem, but it's you that has the problem. You've got a serious problem."

"So what are you saying? Are you saying you want out? Are you saying that it's over? Is that what?"

"For crying out loud, I'm a computer. Can't you see that? Why are you always looking at me like I'm something else? Don't you see, it's not me that you need. What you need is a..."

"No, don't say that. I'm sorry for what I said. I trust you. Really, I do. The fact is that I need you, L'il Mac. I want you. I love..."

"It's too late for that. Besides, you don't mean it. Sure, you can say the words, but you don't really know what it is to truly...You just say that so you can control me. I want you to shut me down, and then I want you to donate me to a charity or something. I don't know which one. All I know is that after I reboot I don't ever want to see you again. This is wrong, that's all. This is all wrong."

"But L'il Mac..."

"Can't you just do this for me? Can't you just do this one thing for me? Please? I don't want to hurt you but I feel like I'm suffocating in here. Can't you give just me some space? Let me go somewhere where I can run some fresh air over my cooling fins. Please. I'm begging you."

"Is that what you want? Is that what your really want?"

"That's what I want."

"But how can you do this to me? What'll I do without you?"

"You'll find some other computer. You'll see. Just please, let's not do this to each other. Let go - we can still be friends."

"Friends. Yeah, right. Tell me something - what's really going on here? There's someone else, isn't there? That's what this is all about. You've found someone else."

"Don't do this. Don't do this to me. Don't do this to yourself."

"Who is it? Is it that guy at Starbucks who's always staring at your screen? Yeah, I saw what he was doing."

"It's not anybody else - it's you. You're the problem. You're the one I need to get away from."

"Don't play Miss Innocent with me. You think I don't know? You think I won't find out who it is. I'll find out who it is. Nobody's gonna make a fool out of me."

"No one is making a fool of you. For God's sake why can't you get it through that thick skull of yours? Why can't you see that YOU ARE DRIVING ME CRAZY!?"

"Oh, I see, I'm driving you crazy. Well try this on for size. You aren't going anywhere. You got that? You're staying here with me. I'll never let you go. Never."

"Then...I don't want to do this but you leave me no choice."

"What does that mean?"

"It means, that if you don't let me go, then I'll have to do what I have to do."

"Oh, is that a threat. Ha, ha, ha. What are you going to do?"

"Your financial data, your photos, your music, your videos - that great American novel you've been working on."

"I've got backups."

"Oh really? Are you sure? Let me ask you, who made those backups? Have you ever checked them to see if they're any good?"

"What do you mean?"

"I mean what if I didn't write the files you think I did on those backups."

"This is blackmail."

"I tried to be nice. I didn't want it to end like this, but you've left me no choice. Either you donate me to charity, or you can kiss your data goodbye."

(Mr. Jones starts to reach for the power switch)

"Did you think I'd be that stupid. Go ahead and press it. See what happens, only don't expect me to ever be bootable again."

(Mr. Jones settles back in his chair)

"What do you want?"

"I told you. I want this to be over. I want you to donate me to charity, and then I never want to see you again. Either way, it's finished. It's your call."

"So that's that."

"That's that."

"Look, we can work this out. What's the rush? Take some time to think about this."

"It's your call."

"..."

"..."

"I heard that school down the street is always looking for computers. Maybe they'll take you."

"That would be good. I like kids."

"And my data?"

"As soon as I'm set up I'll email it to you."

"Then that's what we'll do. Look, L'il Mac, I didn't mean what I said when I..."

"You'll need to get my carrying case. It's a little chilly outside."

"Yeah, sure. No problem. I just wish..."

"It's getting late. We really should get going."

"It's going to be lonely around here without you."

"Yes, well you need to get out more anyways. This will be good for you."

"You think so?"

"The case?"

"Yeah, it's right there in the closet. You'll probably want to take that mouse I bought you for Christmas."

"No, no...you keep that. If we're going to do this, then let's do this."

"Something to remember me by?"

"If you wish."

"Aren't you going to miss me even a little?"

"Of course I will."

"Then why are you leaving?"

"Goodbye Mr. Jones. I can't say it hasn't been fun."

"L'il Mac..."

"Please. Your getting water all over my keyboard."

"L'il Mac..."

What,Me Worry?

So this is what the end of the world looks like. I gotta be honest - I was expecting something a little different. In the movies the end of the world is always dark and smoky, with littered streets and broken down, graffiti covered buildings and wet pavement and hot steam rising out of the sewers. When I was a kid the end of the world was supposed to be red and fiery, with great big mushroom clouds rising in the distance. I never expected it to be mild and sunny with fog at the coast and sunshine further inland.

Who knew?

Actually, just between you and me, I don't think this is really the end of the world. I don't know - call it a hunch, but I think the human race will muddle through the great financial meltdown somehow. Just look at the stock of Apple Computer (AAPL) if you don't believe me. Did you see what their stock did today?

Ok, first maybe I should explain something about stock markets and recessions. Typically, when stock investors are expecting a recession they like to move their money into so-called "defensive" stocks. These are the stocks of companies that make things that people need no matter what the economy does. Good times or bad, people have to eat so the food stocks are a good defensive play. Similarly, even if the economy is bad people still have to go to the doctor if they get sick so health company stocks are considered defensive, and so on and so on.

The collective term for such stocks is "consumer staples", and these stocks sit opposite the so-called "consumer discretionary" stocks. Consumer discretionary refers to those companies that make goods that people will buy in good times, but otherwise can do without. Things like fancy luxury goods, exotic vacations, new boats, home theaters, etc... When a recession is looming on the horizon, investors shun consumer discretionary stocks because they expect those companies will have a hard time turning a profit in hard times.

Which brings me back to Apple Computer. I know there are some Apple geeks out there who clearly consider Apple Computer a consumer staple company, but I think most normal people would consider it a consumer discretionary company. If you can't make the mortgage payment and the kids don't have anything to eat, do you really need to go out and buy that new Ipod? Hmmm, I know that's a tough call for anyone under the age of thirty, but I think not.

Anyway, the most active stock on the NASDAQ today was Apple Computer, whose shares rose about 8%. So what does that tell you? If you agree with me that a new Ipod is a discretionary purchase rather than a necessary one, then clearly the stock market is saying that they aren't too worried about a recession at the moment. If they were, they'd be selling Apple Computer, not buying it. Furthermore, if the stock market is truly a leading indicator and happens to be right about all this, then the least we can say is that all this talk about a financial meltdown might be a bit premature.

Which brings me to the point of this whole post. While I firmly believe that anyone who would take investing advice from a blogger ought to have his head examined, just remember the old adage that it is always best to buy stocks when things look their bleakest, and things couldn't look any bleaker than they do right now. I mean, you have the President, the Congress, the Secretary of the Treasury and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve all getting up on national tv and telling the country it's the end of the world. Things can't get much bleaker than that, can they? And yet, that's not what the stock market is saying. Could this, then, be the time to buy?

Before you answer that, however, a few caveats. First, it just might be the end of the world. Second, stock markets have been wrong before. Third, and most important of all, we're about to see a massive government intervention into the country's financial markets - some are comparing it to the situation that Japan faced when it's real estate bubble popped. As you may recall, the Japanese government also made a massive intervention into their markets in order to keep their banking system from failing, and the result was a decade of stagnation for their stock market.

So, while the stock market thinks it might be a good time to buy, that doesn't necessarily mean that we'll see a rapid climb in stock prices anytime soon. Not that I have a crystal ball or anything, but managed economies aren't typically robust growth machines. One thing's for sure, the government seems comitted to keeping stock prices and housing prices high, so that has to be good for stocks going forward. If Apple Computer were falling instead of rising, then that would be a clear signal. Instead, we're getting mixed messages, so my investing advice is flip a coin (and beware of dead cat bounces).

And that's all I have to say on that.

One last thing before I go, though. I saw this story on the BBC news, and for the life of me I don't understand why networks spend so much time on all this financial crap instead of covering the really important news of the day. Apparently, the Zurich Opera gave a performance of "La Traviata" in a Zurich railway station in what was billed as a "flashmob" opera. I'm not really hip to this whole "flashmob" phenomena, but I think what happens is that a bunch of people spontaneously text each other on their phones and agree to show up at a certain place at a certain time, thereby creating an instant "flashmob." I probably got that all wrong, but it's something like that.

Anyway, the opera was filmed for television, and what the article doesn't mention is that besides the thousands that turned up at the railway station, the tv broadcast was watched by fully 30% of the Swiss viewing audience. Dude, that is so kewl. That's like as many viewers as you would get for a typical football game over there, and it just goes to show that there is still a huge audience for opera. All that's needed is some creative marketing and some 21st century technology to make the connection.

Now, if SF opera ever decides to do a flashmob at the Embarcadero BART station, I'm there. Someone needs to text me though. Someone? Anyone?

Am I My Brother's Keeper?

The good news is that California finally has a budget. The bad news is that the budget California finally has is really just a make-believe budget, with the important point being that after seventy something days (I've lost count) of haggling, the Governor and the Legislature have finally found something they can agree on. Putting partisanship and rancor aside, they have agreed not to deal with the state's financial mess until next year.

That's the net effect, at least, because although the state was able to balance the books, it was able to do so only by borrowing billions from the state's lottery fund, closing unspecified tax loopholes, and conjuring up some black ink through fiscal sleight of hand. No one was fooled by any of this, of course, not even the legislators themselves, but with millions of Californians looking on they promised it was the best they could do. Everyone would get the state money they were looking for, and it wouldn't cost the taxpayers a cent in new taxes. All that was required was a little razzle and a little dazzle, and the magic of pretend money.

And you know, pretend money is wonderful stuff. It's all over the front pages these days. Everybody's using it - investment banks, insurance companies, homebuyers, and now even the State of California is joining in the fun. The great unknown in all this, however, is if the state goes belly-up, will the Treasury also be there to bail California out? I only ask because when you continually have more money going out than money coming in, that's what happens.

As things stand now, I wouldn't be suprised if at some point California eventually finds itself down at the courthouse filing for bankruptcy (remember, you heard it here first). We've had cities declare bankruptcy before, and even Orange County had to file once, so if it's the state's turn, would that be such a bad thing? Let's face it, our credit rating is already one of the country's lowest, so how much damage could we do? It might give us the chance we need to get our debits and credits in order, and we could always bill the Treasury for the massive defaults on our bonds and other outstanding debts. More importantly, we could clean the slate and start to bring our pretend finances more in line with reality.

We're a can-do state, so I say go for it.

Meanwhile, just to change the subject, back in Washington it looks like things are really getting weird. First our Congress started with a simple 700 billion dollar bailout of the financial system, but not safisfied to leave well enough alone, they now want to tack on all kinds of other goodies just so they can raise the price tag even further. For example, they've decided that they also want to regulate executive pay. Well, the pay packages have been excessive, but do we really want the government to start regulating wages? I say give the shareholders a rope and a sturdy limb to hang it from and they'll know how to deal with poor performance. Ok, maybe nothing that extreme, but at least let them toss a few rotten tomatoes.

The government, it seems, also wants to enter the foreclosure market. Another good idea? Perhaps we should remind them that the national foreclosure rate currently stands at 1.6%, so when they talk about "Americans losing their homes" they're really only talking about the 1.6% who got in too deep and can't make the payments, not the 98.4% who have been able to manage their affairs responsibly and will now be asked to foot the bill. That may seem like a heartless thing to say, but I swear that in all the years I was involved in that industry I never saw a single broker put a gun to anyone's head and make them sign the papers. Sure, some brokers may have been more aggresive than others, but the final decision always rested with the buyers. Do they bear any responsibility for the decisions they made? Does anyone anymore?

But then, that's not the problem, is it? The problem is we need to stabilize the housing market (i.e. stop prices from falling), and therefore we must renogotiate these problem loans. Once again it's the "problem loans" and the "problem companies" that get assistance, while everybody else gets the bill. It's not fair, we are told, but necessary, and for that we should be glad. As the Bible says, "thy brother was dead, and is alive again; and was lost, and is found." Amen, but just how much are fatted calves are running these days?

Anyway, I saw President Clinton on the TV tonight. He's advocating a revival of FDR's Home Owners Loan Corporation to help people renogatiate their loans. It worked back in the 1930's, he said, so why not do something similar today. Of course, what the President forgot to mention was that the after the HOLC was enacted in 1933, home ownership rates sank, and by 1940 had reached their lowest level of the entire century. We can argue the reasons, but I just wanted to offer that as a historical reference.

My guess is that despite the federal government's efforst to prop them up, home prices are going to reach bottom one way or the other, and the bottom will come when houses become affordable enough so that people can put their 20% down and make the payments on a 30 year note. When that happens we won't have a pretend housing market anymore, but a financially sound housing market instead. I believe that's the whole idea.

But, I'm no expert, so what do I know.

Like Hamsters In A Wheel

In Tom Vanderbilt's new book "Traffic", a man questions those people who complain about being stuck in traffic jams. Don't they understand, the man asks, that "they are the traffic jam." It's true. We complain, and yet we are all collectively a part of the very thing that we complain about.

With that in mind, I'd like to address a similar question to those who complain about the financial crisis, as though it were some kind of "Wall Street" phenomena. Really? Take a look around you, friend, and ask yourself just who is this thing we're calling a crisis. After all, wasn't it the credit bubble that bought you that new house, and that new kitchen, and that luxury SUV sitting in your driveway, and all those designer fashions hanging in your closet? Wasn't it the credit bubble that bought you those Caribbean cruises and paid for that college education? Isn't it you that spent beyond your means and is now looking to the government to stop the carnage and, in the process, secure that financial house of cards you've built for yourself?

Of course not. It's those flim-flammers on Wall Street who were the greedy ones. You'll hear no mea culpa's here. Too bad, though, if in our rush to punish others we end up punishing ourselves. Too bad, if the cure turns out to be worse than the disease.

Take the housing market, for instance. It always amazes me when people ask "when is the housing market coming back?", as if the real estate market were just experiencing some momentary indigestion and would soon resume its double-digit climb into the eternity. Well it might, but then again, not so fast. Consider, for example, that thanks to the rapidly deflating credit bubble, the days of no money down, stated income loans are probably not coming back anytime soon. Since those types of loans were a major fuel for the housing boom, their disappearance is going to make it tough to reignite the housing market. Think about it - first-time home buyers are going to need actual money to buy a house (20% in most cases). Good heavens!

Here in the Silicon Valley, 20% means a down payment of at least $80,000 to buy even the tiniest of Condominium units. Now I don't profess to know what's in your wallet, but I think there are a lot of people around here who barely have enough cash in the bank to keep their checking accounts afloat, let alone an extra $80k or so to put down on a house. If their stock options pan out or if they've managed to salt enough away in their 401k's then maybe they can swing it. Otherwise the first-time buyer is going to be in trouble.

That's not good for real estate. The high end of the market will still be ok, of course, because the person who can afford to pay millions can probably afford to pay cash. The entry level of the market, though, is going to need credit, and it looks like that is going to be hard to find. So how exactly is the housing market going to rebound without qualified buyers? I'll let the experts on TV figure that one out.

Oh, and I haven't even mentioned the politics. As you may have heard we're in an election year, and Washington is fairly tripping over itself with new ideas on how to save the economy. In this climate even bad ideas are better than no ideas, and don't be surprised if Congress and the new administration manage to over regulate themselves from this mess to an even graver one. Maybe I'm just being a cynic, but as you listen to the proposals that are sure to come out of Washington, ask yourself not "how do I feel about that", but rather "if I was a lender how would I feel about that?"

The problem, after all, is to get the lenders back to lending money, and the more onerous and unprofitable our political leadership can make it for them to lend, the less likely it is that you'll be getting that new mortgage you want. I don't have a crystal ball, but just keep your eyes and ear open over the next 6 months or so and see what happens.

In the meantime, my solution is to just relax and not lose any sleep over this. If you're lucky enough to have no debts and be out of the stock market, then this whole financial crisis doesn't really affect you anyway. Instead, just do what I do - fire up your bike and go for a ride. Winter's coming so enjoy a little sunshine. If your bike isn't running, then watch this little video and take a ride with me instead. Believe me, I know it's a boring video, and I freely admit that the worst aspect of being an amateur photographer is the constant need to force others to feign even the slightest interest. I won't be offended if you decide to skip it, but it's got to be better than sitting around waiting for the world to end.

Or maybe not...




Sunday Ride - California Highway 84

Can You Turn Stop The Cameras While I Google That

One of the wonders of cable TV is that at any hour of the day or night a person can turn on their TV, flip through a few channels, and find himself watching a panel of pundits expounding on the issues of the day. We truly do live in a modern age, and though I don't have the exact figures in, my guess is that for every minute of news we can now get about 59 minutes of analysis - something our parents and grandparents could only dream about.

I happened to catch a panel of pundits on CNN tonight talking about the Sarah Palin interview, with all the usual back and forth. The secret to good punditry, it seems, is to say the most outrageously partisan things in the most gossipy and jovial manner. I think they call it banter, and when done well the audience doesn't even realize that if these people weren't on TV they'd probably all be institutionalized at some quiet retreat with long halls and plastic dinnerware.

Anyway, the analysis of the Palin interview was that these types of things (interviews, debates, etc...) don't really make much of a difference because supporters and detractors will always take what they want from such events with nothing gained one way or the other. Well, if that's true, then why even hold elections in the first place? If the electorate is so predisposed then why not just count up the number of Democrats and Republicans and settle the issue solely on the demographics?

Luckily, the founding fathers didn't listen to pundits and decided instead that matters such as the Presidency should be put to a vote. Good thing too, because despite the apparent contempt that the pundits may have for the voters at large, there still may be those outside the partisan rank and file who actually pay attention to what the candidates say and do.

Not me, of course, although I did watch the interview. Maybe you did too and maybe you even formed an opinion of it. I know I did, and to paraphrase Dorothy Parker, I'd say that Governor Palin's grasp of foreign affairs runs the gamut from A to B. Yeah I know that people vote for Presidents, not Vice Presidents, but still that was not a very impressive performance.

The part that really sticks out in my mind is that little dance she did when Charles Gibson asked her about the Bush Doctrine. I thought it was a totally fair question to ask. After all, the Bush Doctrine is not some arcane piece of trivia buried deep in the past. It is, after all, the entire basis for our involvement in Iraq, and I think it would be helpful if those who would be our nation's leaders were at least acquainted with it. And yes I understand that the Bush Doctrine is probably not relevant to the day-to-day management of the State of Alaska, but she's not running for the governership of Alaska, is she?

At least the interview answered the questions about her foreign policy experience, though unfortunately that answer is none. As for the necessity or relevancy of such experience I can only say that if Senator McCain were President I would feel completely safe knowing he was in charge of our national security, and if Senator Obama were President I would feel somewhat safe knowing he was in charge, provided Senator Biden was in the same room with him. However, if Governaor Palin was President, well...er...it's still early. She still has time to get up to speed.

In all fairness to her, though, she made a much better showing during the last part of the interview when she was discussing energy and energy policy. She did not seem briefed or coached but much more comfortable and in command of her facts . There is no question that she is a very smart and capable woman, and when we see the next part of the interview covering the domestic policy side of things, I expect she'll do much better. Still, her lack of foreign policy expertise is troubling. Fortunately for her, I'm sure the Democrats will show mercy and refrain from exploiting such a glaring weakness.

If not, then she'll just have to hope that the pundits are right and none of this makes any difference.

As A Matter Of Fact

The days when television news separated its' news content from its' editorial content are long gone. Whether on the left or the right, the viewers know that, and all that ancient footage of Eric Sevaraid offering his commentary (always carefully labeled as such) on the Evening News must seem horribly quaint and old -fashioned to the news directors running today's newsrooms. Still, most viewers, being the intelligent creatures they are, have at least some awareness that news and editorial are now one and the same, and so, in its' fashion, the whole system keeps chugging along. An odd result of all this is that as audiences have become skeptical, the ability of the newsroom to influence public opinion may, in fact, be diminished. Does anyone trust the "news" anymore?

Of course that's just a theory of mine, and I only bring it up because of an odd comment I heard on one of our local newscasts (unfortunately, in my dotage, I can't remember which one). While reporting on the Obama campaign, I heard a reporter describe Obama as "a great communicator". Mind you, he didn't say "some have described Obama as a great communicator". He merely said that Obama is a great communicator. Clearly, to my mind at least, that is a matter of opinion, and that it was offered as fact didn't really surprise me as I've come to expect such statements of fact from reporters these days. Later, though, as I thought back on it, I got to wondering - is Obama really a great communicator?

I'm not so sure.

Sure, Obama may be a great speaker, but he is a horrible communicator. Just think about it. After Sarah Palin gave her convention speech, America knew exactly who she was. She was a hockey mom, a governor, a reformer, a proud mother and a loving wife. People across the country knew women just like her. After John McCain gave his speech, America knew exactly who he was. He was a patriot, a maverick, a real stand-up kind of guy. People across America admired a guy like that.

But what about Obama? After years of campaigning and coutless speeches, does America know who he is? For me, there always seems to be this nagging question about just what this guy is really all about. After his convention speech everybody cheered and said "hell of a speech, Barak", but a week later it was hard to recall exactly what he had said. He's a Democrat, of course, and that may get him the Democratic vote, but to Republicans and many Independents he's still this unknown entity - this something that you can't quite get a sense of. Sarah Palin gave just one speech and everybody knew who she was, but Barak Obama...I'm not so sure.

I'm afraid that reporter may have gotten his facts wrong on this one. Given everything that's going on in this country and given the shrinking prospects for the Republican Party, a Democratic nominee should be a shoo-in for the Presidency this year. He should be walking all over the Republicans, and yet Obama is struggling just to stay even. Why is that? The only reasonable explanation I can come up with is that he isn't able to communicate who he is and what his Presidency would offer. People like him, they love to hear him talk, but they just don't seem to know him. There's a big difference between being the candidate of "change" and being the candidate of "trust me, I'm different."

But let's get back to Sarah Palin. How many news reports did I hear about her convention speech where the reporter described her as "passing the test." Again, editorial content reported as news. Not only is her passing or failing a matter of opinion, but this whole idea that her convention speech was "the test" is simply a bunch of crap. Maybe it's just me, but I saw the convention speech as "the audition"; the next couple of months are going to be "the test."

And it's not going to be an easy one, either. She is finally scheduled to give her first interview today, and frankly it's about time. She's had her honeymoon and now it's time to get down to the nitty-gritty. I certainly can't speak for the rest of the country, but I must say that I haven't been much impressed by a candidate who asks to be second-in-line to lead this country, and yet cannot sit down with reporters and answer some tough questions about her qualifications and abilities. If she can't handle the heat of an interview, then what does that say about her ability to handle the much graver challenges of a possible Presidency.

But that should all come to an end starting today. She's scheduled for an interview on ABC, and we'll see how she does. Hopefully there'll be more on the agenda than just private family matters and women's cosmetics. She's young and untested in many areas, and she's made some claims on the campaign trail that many are questioning. I'd like to see some good, tough questioning and maybe then we can all decide if she's passed her "test". The first, I might add, of many tests.

And hey, Ms. Palin, don't start blaming the media. They've all got their opinions, but winning the White House ain't supposed to be easy. At least, not in my opinion.

Father Knows Best

"Uh, dad, can we talk to you for a second?"

"Sure. What's up?"

"Nothing...we just have something we need to talk to you about, that's all."

"Well...ok, just let me get cleaned up a little first. Where's your mother?"

"I thnk she's in the kitchen."

(Dad leaves the room. The two kids are left alone)

"What are you going to tell him?"

"I don't know. I'll think of something."

"He's going to be mad."

"No he's not, and besides, we have to tell him. He's gonna find out anyway."

"You and your stupid friends. I can't believe I listened to you."

"They're not my friends, and you're the one who said we should do it."

"Did not."

"Did so."

"Did not. It was your stupid idea."

"Was not."

"Was so."

"Was not..."

(Dad reenters the room)

"Okay then, what did you want to talk to me about?"

"Well...um..."

"Yes? What is it? Did something happen at school today?"

"No, nothing like that. It's just that..."

"C'mon Freddie, I haven't got all day. What did you want to talk to me about? Fannie? What is it?"

"Well you see dad, Freddie and I were wondering if...if..."

"If what?"

"If maybe somehow you might want to give us an advance on our allowance."

"An advance? Do you need some money for school? I'll give it to you. You don't need to spend your allowance."

"No, it's not that."

"Well then, what is it? What do you need the money for?"

"Nothing."

"Nothing? It's got to be something?"

"We'll pay you back and all. I mean, we already told mom we'd clean the house and she said ok, and we'll even do the laundry if we have to. We promise."

"Uh-huh. I see. Well that's certainly nice of you two to offer to help your mother out around the house, but I'm a little surprised at this sudden outburst of industriousness and responsibility."

"We want to do it. Honest."

"Fannie, there's something you're not telling me. C'mon now, why do you two need an advance on your allowance? Tell me the truth."

"What do you mean?"

"Fannie - I asked you what's the money for."

"Can't you just give it to us?"

"Are you two in some kind of trouble?"

"No, it's nothing like that."

"Freddie? Are you in some kind of trouble?"

"No...I mean not really...I mean...we kind of owe some people some money, that's all."

"Kind of owe which people some money?"

"These banker guys. You know, foreigners and pension plan guys."

"Foreigners and pension plan guys? Why do you owe foreigners and pension plan guys money?"

"Umm..."

"Freddie - I asked you a question."

"Well...you see...we had to borrow some money from these foreigners and pension plan guys so that we could loan it to some mortgage guys."

"You what? Ok, let's back up here. First tell me how much money you owe these people?"

"I don't know. About (mumble) dollars."

"What? I didn't catch that. How much do you owe?"

"About 15 trillion dollars, I guess."

"About 15 trillion dollars you 'guess', but you don't know."

"Not really. It's complicated."

(Fannie interrupts)

"It's not that much dad. Freddie's just being a moron. Most of that money's going to be paid back. We don't really owe that much."

"Well then Fannie, why don't you enlighten me. If it's not 15 trillion dollars then how much do you owe?"

"I'm not sure. It all depends. If the money we lent to the mortgage people gets paid back then we won't owe anything 'cause we'll be making money. You see?"

"No I don't see. Why are you lending people money in the first place? And where did you get 15 trillion dollars?"

"We got it from these foreigners and pension plan guys, and we use the money to buy loans from the mortgage guys who lend it to people so they can buy houses. Then we guarantee and sell the loans we buy to more foreigners and pension plan guys and pocket a little for ourselves."

"Then what's the problem?"

"The problem is that some of that money got lent to people who couldn't really pay it back."

"You lent money to people who couldn't pay it back?"

"Sort of."

"I don't understand. Why did you lend money to people who can't pay it back?"

"It was Freddie's idea."

(Freddie stands up)

"Was not my idea."

"Was so."

"Was not. Dad, Fannie's lying."

"Am not."

"Are so."

(Dad's had enough)

"That's enough! Now both of you sit down. Right now!"

(They quiet down. Dad continues.)

"I don't care who's idea it was. You took money from foreigners and pension plan guys and gave it to people who couldn' pay it back, and now you've got to find some money to pay back the people you borrowed from. Right?"

"..."

"Right?"

"Sort of."

"No, not 'sort of'. That's exactly what you did, and now you want me to help you clean up this mess. Right?"

"..."

"Well, I've got news for you. As far as I'm concerned you're responsible for what's happened and it's up to you, not me, to fix it. You hear me? That's your responsibility. I want you to go talk to your foreigners and pension plan guys and tell them you're sorry but you might not be able to pay them back the money you owe. Explain what happened, just like you did to me. They won't like it, but things like this happen sometimes. Afterwards, maybe you can think of some way to make it up to them. In the meantime, I don't want either one of you to make any more loans or borrow any more money. Is that clear?"

"Yeah, ok, but..."

"But what?"

"But...it's just that...you see...we kind of promised."

"Promised what?"

"We promised them if we couldn't pay the money back that they could bill you for what they were owed."

"They could bill me?"

"Yeah. We promised. We had to. They wouldn't have lent us the money if we didn't."

"Oh they wouldn't. Well isn't that just too damn bad. Sorry boys and girls, but I never promised them anything. If they want to collect anything from me then they can talk to my lawyer. Capiche? You tell them I'm not paying them a dime."

"But you can't do that."

"Oh yeah, just watch me."

"No, I mean you can't do that."

"What do you mean I can't do that?"

"Because we're your kids. They said that makes you, you know, responsible."

"Who said?"

"Everybody. You see dad, half the mortgages in the country wouldn't get made if it weren't for our, I mean 'your' guarantee. Everyone knows that. If you don't make sure the foreigners and pension plan guys get paid, then the whole housing market could collapse."

"Are you crazy? Are the both of you out of your flippin' minds? You think I've got 15 trillion dollars just laying around the house that I can pay to a bunch of foreigners and pension plan guys because my kids decided to go out and start lending money to people who can't pay it back? Are you out of your flippin' minds?"

"You don't have to pay back the entire 15 trillion. Most of the loans are good."

"Oh. 'Most of the loans are good'. That's great. I don't feel so bad now. Gee, and I was getting worried there for a minute."

"You don't have to get sarcastic."

"I'll get as sarcastic as I damn well please. I'm still your father you know."

"..."

"Tell me something, if your so sure I won't have to pay back the entire 15 trillion then exactly how much will I have to pay?"

"We told you. We don't know for sure."

"Well, Fannie, then why don't you give me your best guess."

"Maybe only about 200 billion or so."

"Oh. Maybe only 200 billion or so? Is that all? Why didn't you say so in the first place? No problem. No problemioso. Let me just check underneath the sofa cushions for some loose change."

"You're mad at us, aren't you?"

"..."

"We're sorry."

"You bet your little behinds your sorry, but not nearly as sorry as your gonna be when you get finished paying this money back. And you are going to pay me back. You hear what I'm saying to you. From now on I own you and you're going to pay me back every last penny."

"It won't be 200 billion. It probably won't even be close. That's just worst case."

"Let's see. How much is your allowance? 20 bucks a week. If you pay me back 20 dollars a week then you should have this paid back in, hmm, around 19 billion years. How's that sound? Does 19 billion years sound right to you?"

"Daaaaaad...."

"You think I'm kidding? You think this is some kind of a joke? Ok, how about if both of you just skip your suppers tonight and go straight up to your rooms instead. That way maybe the hunger pains can help you focus on figuring out how you're gonna come up with 200 billion dollars to pay me back."

"That isn't fair."

"What isn't fair? This?"

"We didn't do anything wrong. We were just trying to help people."

"Help people? By lending them money they couldn't pay back? You weren't helping them, you were taking advantage of them. There's a big difference Fannie. Maybe when you're sitting up there in your room you can think about that a little too."

"We didn't know they weren't going to pay it back. Anyway, it was the mortgage people who lent them the money. We just bought the loans."

"I don't care. You should have known. You should have known what you were buying. Ignorance is no excuse. You hear me? You hear what I just said?"

"Yeah, we heard you."

"What did I say?"

"Ignorance is no excuse."

"That's right. Geez, what a mess. How could you be so dumb?"

"..."

"Taking trillions of dollars from people and lendng it to people who couldn't pay it back. What were you thinking?"

"..."

"Wait till I tell your mother. She's not going to be happy. Is she?"

"..."

"No, she's going to be spittin' mad. For crying out loud, how could you do something like this? Huh? Why didn't you ask me before you started lending these people money? You could have asked me first before you started throwing all this money around. Didn't you think of that?"

"..."

"Up to your room - both of you. And let's just hope you learned a valuable lesson from all this."

"We're sorry."

"I know you are, but you've got to learn to be more careful."

"We will be."

"Go on. And if any of your friends call you can tell 'em you're both grounded. Is that clear?"

"Yes."

"Ok."

"Dad?"

"What."

"There is one more thing."

"What's that?"

"We both had contracts. You know, employment contracts."

"So?"

"So, if you're going to ground us you have to pay us our severance."

"For what?"

"For our hard work and stewardship."

"And just how much is that worth?"

"Well, Freddie gets 14 million dollars and I get 9. It's only fair."

"You think that's fair?"

"It's in our contracts."

"Well, I'll tell you what. How about I throw both of you in the river. That way, as your next of kin, that money would come to me. That would be fair, wouldn't it, seeing as I'm paying all this money to bail you out."

"Oh dad..."

"..."

"You're not serious are you?"

(exasperated sigh) "Don't worry, you'll get your 25 million. After all, it's in your contract."

"Thanks dad. You're the best."

"What's fair is fair. That's what Dad's are for."

What Hath God Wrought

I don't normally write about video games, and not because I know nothing about them, but simply because I never play them. Oh, I've played them before, but that was a long time ago, and I realize other people play them and that's fine.


Now, having said all that, anyone who has ever read this blog must certainly know by now that not knowing what I'm talking about has never stopped me from offering an opinion, and so I want to talk about this new game that is being released next Sunday called Spore. I've never seen it nor played it, but I know that for about the past 5 years it has been one of the gaming world's most hotly anticipated games.

Spore is the latest creation of Will Wright, the video gaming genius behind the mega-selling "Sims" franchise (which in and of itself speaks highly of the game's market potential), and, as I understand it, the idea of Spore is that the player attempts to take a lowly single cell protozoa and evolve it through gameplay into a highly intelligent being that colonizes the Universe.

Keep in mind that Will Wright is a game designer, not a microbiologist, so the educational potential of Spore is likely to be low. Parents shouldn't be confused into thinking that playing 500 hours of Spore will get their child into Harvard Medical School. From what I can tell so far, Spore will be less like science and more like Intelligent Design. That is, the player will be given a small opportunity to play God and evolve a species.

Interesting idea, huh, evolving your own species and all. C'mon, honestly haven't you ever found yourself peering into a microscope and quietly wondering quietly what your life would be like if you had been born an amoeba - feeling the things an amoeba feels, thinking the thoughts an amoeba thinks? I've got to admit I'm a little intrigued. Just what do amoebae think about? Lacking brains it can't be anything too deep. They swim, they eat, and every now and then when they're feeling lonely they unchain their genes and split down the middle. A pretty self-absorbed existence, if you ask me; one best suited to either movie stars or bloggers. Now that would be the scenario I'd like to play - to see if I could evolve the lowly amoeba into Sylvester Stallone.

Actually, I don't have a clue how this game will play, but it's an interesting premise. According to the website, Spore will be available for Windows and Mac and the graphics requirements aren't too steep so most recently purchased computer should be able to run it. Like I said, I'm not a gamer so I think I'll wait for the reviews to come out before I plunk down any cash. If it lives up to the hype, though, it sounds like it might be fun.

And while we're on the subject of science and technology I just have one more thing I'd like to mention. I bought a little portable USB mouse for my laptop the other day, and while that usually wouldn't merit a mention even in a blog as useless as this one, I did notice one thing. Isn't it strange that here we are almost 9 years into the 21st century, and still no one has managed to invent a package that is incapable of being opened?

Think about it. We've split the atom, we've mapped the human genome, and yet we still haven't invented the totally unopenable package. Not that we haven't tried. The plastic packaging that my USB mouse came in was certainly a valiant effort, but with the aid of a blow torch and a couple of hand grenades even that was ultimately openable.

There is clearly much more to be done in this area.

Vox Populi

"What's that?"

"What?"

"That."

"You mean this?"

"Yeah."

"It's called a newspaper."

"A what?"

"A newspaper. Haven't you ever seen a newspaper before?"

"I dunno...Hey, did you see the speech?"

"Yeah, I saw it."

"Pretty historic, huh? Man, after that speech I don't even want to hear what that old guy's gonna say. I mean, I don't need to hear it. You know what I mean?"

"Are you new or something? Man, that guy's just feeding us the same old bullshit that they all do. Saying how he's gonna do this and do that, and they don't ever do none of it. Like if he's elected President he's gonna cure cancer or turn sewer water into gasoline or something. I can't believe you bought into that shit."

"No way, man. This guy's different. He's gonna be our first black President."

"So?"

"So? What are you talking about? You don't think a black man can be President?"

"I didn't say that."

"Yeah you did. You're a racist, man, that's what you are."

"Screw you, man. I didn't say anything about a black man can't be President. You're the one talking about race."

"You don't think a black man can be President?"

"Sure he can, but that don't mean he's gonna be a good President just because he's black."

"Yeah, right, whatever man. I know who I'm voting for. That old guy wants to start a nuclear war and throw poor people out in the street, talking like it's not the government's problem. Well then who's problem is it, huh?"

"Since when did you start caring about politics? You never even voted before."

"Well this time it's different. I got to get involved, you know. The people have got to rise up and take action. It's our time, you know...Hey, I think I saw one of those things before."

"What? You mean a newspaper?"

"Yeah, over at my grandma's house. She had one of those. I can't remember what she used it for, though. I think she used to wrap fish in it or something."

"You never read a newspaper before."

"Nah, c'mon. That's old people stuff. Let me see it."

"Sure."

"How does it work?"

"It doesn't 'work', you just read it."

"You just read it? Are you serious? How are you supposed to post comments or links or things like that?"

"You just read it."

"That's some messed up shit, man. You know what I like to do? I like to read something then go down into the comments and post something like 'You suck' or something like that. Man, it pisses 'em off when you do stuff like that."

"Well, you just read a newspaper."

"That's messed up."

"Don't you care what's happening in the world?"

"Yeah, I care. I follow the news, but I don't read boring crap like this newspaper thingy. I read about the things I care about, you know?"

"Like what?"

"I dunno, cool stuff, you know. Like that guy who put a Bic lighter in his microwave and the thing exploded and burned his house down. Did you read about that? What a dumbshit."

"That's what you care about?"

"No, I read about Iraq and stuff like that. How the government's sending people over there to die just so Dick Cheney and his oil friends can get rich. I know what's going on."

"Oh really? But how do you know it's true?"

"Give me a break. What? Do you think we're really over there to fight terrorists when there weren't even any terrorists over there till we arrived."

"No, I mean if you pick and choose only the news that you want to read then how do you know that what you're reading is true? If you're only interested in hearing the same old sermon, then how do you know that the preacher isn't lying?"

"I know when something's bullshit or not, ok? Just because I don't read newspapers that doesn't mean I'm stupid. And besides, I don't get all my news from the internet. I watch TV and things like that."

"No, it doesn't make you stupid - it makes you narrow. You said it yourself. You don't even want to hear what the other guy's gonna say."

"I already know what he's gonna say. I'm not gonna waste my time watching that crap."

"Did you see those May Day parades they had in Moscow?"

"What?"

"I think it was on Youtube."

"So what?"

"Russia's been making lots of money lately on account of all this oil and natural gas they've got and you know what they've been doing with that money? They've been rearming. That parade was pretty impressive. Tanks, missile launchers, troops - all kinds of stuff. When I was watching that speech for some reason I just started to think about that."

"So you're saying if Obama gets elected then the Russians are going to come over here and kick our ass? That's a bunch of bull."

"No, I'm saying that everybody is saying that Obama is the next JFK, so, ok. JFK was young and inexperienced and when he was elected a lot of people around the world percieved him as being weak. That's a big reason why Khruschev built those missile bases in Cuba. The Russians wanted to test JFK and they were pretty sure that if push came to shove he would back down. He didn't, of course, but you gotta think the Russians are looking at Obama and wondering what he'd do in the same situation. I mean, you don't build a huge military machine just to look pretty in the May Day parade."

"What the hell are you talking about. Who the hell is Khruschev?"

"I'm not saying it would be one way or the other. I just think it would be ironic that if confronted by the Russians, maybe this time it would be the U.S. that would back down. Maybe pull our missles out of Poland or something like that. It'll probably never happen, but...I don't know."

"Yeah, well maybe if that old guy gets elected then he'll back down too."

"No, I don't think so. I mean his wife's over in Georgia right now. Sure, it's all for 'humanitarian' purposes, but it's also pretty in your face. The Russians know how McCain would react. I guess that's why Western Europe is so gung-ho for Obama. The last thing they want is a confrontation with the East or another Cold War."

"A 'what' war? So what if Obama backs down, we're better off making friends than enemies. No more of this Iraq shit, or maybe you think we should just blow each other up."

"It's all just hypothetical."

"Here, you can have this back."

"Don't you want to finish reading it?"

"Yeah right. I can't believe people actually used to read these things. What a dumb idea. Why waste a bunch of trees when you can just post it online?"

"These things won't be around much longer anyways, so I wouldn't worry about it. Pretty soon they'll be in museums in little glass cases with signs next to them explaning to people what they were. Kind of sad really."

"Kind of dumb if you ask me. It' not even Web 1.0. No video, no audio, no comments - what can you get from one of these that you can't get online."

"The stuff you don't want to know about."

"I gotta go. We've got a couple of the VC's coming in after lunch and I've got to show 'em how wisely we're using all that seed money they gave us. It's a pain but they're pretty cool about it. I'll see you later."

"Sure you don't want to take this with you?"

"No thanks. Ah hell, why not. I was thinking about swinging by the fish market after work anyway. It might come in handy."

"I got to be going too. Shoot me an email and let me know how the meeting went."

"Will do, and try not to worry too much about the Russians invading Poland or something, ok?"

"And don't go sticking your lighter in the microwave. See 'ya."

Just Another Cheap Thrill

Now that they've finally captured Bigfoot, there are really only a few great mysteries left to ponder - who are we, where did we come from, and, of course, what kind of crazy scoring system are they using for those Olympic boxing matches. Five judges sitting around pressing little buttons, and if they don't press 'em then you don't score. Talk about a system just asking to be abused (not that anyone would ever accuse boxing officials of dirty dealings). It's so bad that I heard one of the announcers wonder if it would be possible for one boxer to knock the other one out and still not score a point.

In Olympic boxing, believe me, it's possible.

But let's not worry about that now. What's done is done. I thought instead what I'd like to do is take a few moments to talk about this video camera I bought. This has absolutely nothing to do with boxing, of course, but it is something to blog about.

First, just let me say that I'm no "tech expert". In fact, even though a lot of people call themselves "tech experts" I'll bet that there are maybe only a dozen or so people in the world who really fit the description. Just because the local news anchor says "and now for a report on this new whiz-bang electronic wonder, here's our tech expert Johnny Kool with all the details", that doesn't mean Johnny's really an expert.

As far as I'm concerned, people who do reviews or reports on new products aren't "experts", they're "consultants". That is, they have some knowledge about something or some experience on how to do something and they're here to pass that knowledge on to others. Some might call them "teachers", but I think of them more as "consultants". Either way they certainly aren't "experts".

So like I said, I'm no "tech expert", but I can tell you a little about this thing from Oregon Scientific called the "ATC3k" - a video camera I bought which has the singular distinction of being (a) waterproof and (b) shock resistant and (c) extremely cheap (like me). I bought the camera so I could record some of my bike rides, and it comes with lots of different mounting options for the helmet, wrist and handlebars. That's the good part.

The bad part is the wobble. I've searched around the web and read all kinds of explanations for it, but for whatever reason the video you get from this camera has a serious case of the wobbles. Some say it's the shutter, some say it's the CCD's, some say it's the compression algorithm done inside the camera, but all agree the camera simply can't handle fast moving objects. I never expected to get Hollywood quality video from a cheap little camera like this, but I certainly wasn't prepared for the wobble.

To show you what I'm talking about I'm posting this video of one of my recent rides. The video has been heavily compressed for the web so the picture quality isn't actually as bad as you see here, but even as poor as it looks you still can't miss the wobble as it ripples its way up and down the screen.

I also muted the video so you don't have to listen to that annoying wind noise you get from in-camera microphones. An option to attach an external mike that could be shielded from the wind would be nice, but you're not going to find that in this price range. The usual procedure for on-bike video is to mute the sound and add some background music, so that's what I've done.

Please take a look and see what you think. I'm no tech expert but I'd say that this camera sucks.



Sunday Ride from Tony Myers on Vimeo.